Questioning my brother\'s play....
 

Ok, my brother just called me after he busted out of a 1-2 no limit game in AC. Now he isn’t the best player and probably knows about 1/10 of what I know and I know about 1/100 of what you guys know, so he has a ways to go… of course you couldn’t tell him that. Anyway it was his first time playing in a casino atmosphere and he said they were all raising like 15 dollars pre flop and what not, basically crazy players….


Player 3 (200) (just showed down king 4 in previous hand)
Player 5(250)
My brother(80) Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Anyway he picked up QQ in late position with two early limpers. He raised it to 10 dollars and both players called.
Pot=33

Flop comes 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Player 3 bets 40, player 5 calls., my brother folds.

I had to question his play as I thought his queens were probably good. He of course argued with me so I was wondering what everyone else thinks of this play?

Re: Questioning my brother\'s play....
 

with 40 bb stacks

and 12.5% in preflop

on an all unders flop

I'm all in baby

Re: Questioning my brother\'s play....
 

Raise more preflop. Push flop. Don't sit with 40bbs. Especially if you're not willing to get it all in here.

Re: Questioning my brother\'s play....
 

First thing, if people are raising $15 preflop and others are calling, he should have raised $15. If they are going to call $10 they will call $15 and that gets more money in the pot when he is a favorite.

On the flop if he decides to play the correct play would be to push and I'm going to assume both players at least call his push, giving him 2.3:1 for his money on the play. So he has to win 45% of the time for it to be profitable.

Now for the important part, which you totally left out. What are his reads on the two players? Are they drunk? Are they playing nearly every hand? How often do they raise? How is their post flop play?

Because it’s such a low limit, I'll go with them being total donks that like to play every hand. As such there are 5 different scenarios that would make the most sense: (Quick note, I don't know how to do one random card in pokerstove, or if I can even do one random card so I just picked some cards to go with the threes and nines)

they both have random hands............. 70% to win
3cTh and a random hand.................. 9%
both have a 3, one also has an over card 9%
9hKs and a random hand.................. 70%
One has an A the other a K.............. 75%

So the majority of the time he is either way ahead or way behind, so now you have to assign the probability of each of these events happening. (This is where having good reads comes in handy.)

There isn't a big enough difference in the chance to win if one of them has a 3 or if both do so we will think about them as the same event with a 9% chance of happening. Player 3 doesn't have a 3 because he'd try to slow play it. Player 5 might, and be trying to slowplay. As there are already 2 of the 3s out lets say one/both of them has a 3 25% of the time.

The other three possibilities we'll treat as your brother being a 71% favorite and will happen 75% of the time.

Now multiply the weights of the events happening:

.25 * .09 = 0.0225
.75 * .71 = 0.5325
for a total of 55.5% to win, which is greater than 45% making it +EV to push.

In fact it is +EV to push up until the chance of them having a 3 reaches 43%. This also doesn't take into account both of them folding or one of them folding for $30 more into a $173 and $203 pot respectively. I'm sure I left out some stuff that may have been of minor importance but I think my analysis was good enough to say that he should have pushed his chips in.

Re: Questioning my brother\'s play....
 

I'll take a different angle.

It's his first time and playing a bit timid, understandable, and MUTB is common at his skill level. [Monsters Under The Bed]

Any 3, 99, KK, or AA and he is crushed, most likely of them based on PF info and bet, 99 or A3/K3.

If he was there to learn and play, this factor makes the fold not so bad, if losing the $80 meant the end of play for him, plus, it was a big bet and a CALL in front of him, his remaining stack has 0 fold equity in this situation IMHO, and even if he's ahead, there are times he will be outdrawn.

>TW<

Re: Questioning my brother\'s play....
 

$15 dollar raises at a 1-2 live game at AC is standard. theyre not maniacs. thats justs how the live b&m games are played. your strategy should be completely different at AC than online. raises are big preflop! just understand that, and you cant be so weak there just push. if a guy bets 40 on that flop what could he possibly have to beat QQ. no ones fast playing trip 3's like that and if the guy had the nerve to smooth pre flop with KK or AA, on that board, he'd likely check raise with it and not lead for 20BB.

Re: Questioning my brother\'s play....
 

The read is that they are pretty crazy, player 3 just showed down K4 to a raise preflop OOP.

results
 

player 3 flips over 77
player 5 flips over 88

Re: Questioning my brother\'s play....
 

meh, w/ $80 just push. $200 is a little harder. If the table is very fishy I might push here as well. If someone called my pfr w/ A3 or 34, congratulations to them. At a non maniacal fishy table, I'd probably call.

Re: results
 

Hm... I guess I left out lower pocket pairs, but I think they still fit in decently with the hands where your brother is a 70+% favorite, though he would have been more of a favorite in this case. I think your brother plays very weak and the $40 bet signals someone trying to protect their hand, especially at 1/2 where most people's play is fairly transparent.

Also, I'm quite aware of how live small stakes NL is played. As such your brother should have bet $15 because they'd call it, which would have made the decision to push the flop even easier. You should tell your brother that he hates money.