5/10 OOP set vs overpair
 

This hand is basically the run of the mill playing for a set vs an overpair. I've been trying to see if I can actually make money on the OOP lately ... without much success.

Villain is 14/1(!) with 1.24 aggr on the flop and 11 on the turn (to be honest I only found the out the aggression afterwards, and I'm not too sure what this turn aggression means anyway). This is over 2.5K hands.

I'm dealt 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in EP and limp
Villain in MP raises to $60, all fold and I call.

It's pretty easy to read the AA/KK here ... he might have well flipped them face up.

Flop: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($135)

I bet $60, Villain calls

Turn: J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($250)

I check ...

Well, this didn't work at all, because he checked behind. I'm trying to say that I have a middle pair of a flush draw that I'm giving up on, but either he smelled a rat or he is just more passive than I thought possible.

I guess my question is whether this is a bad play or just the wrong opponent? I'm aware that he might have well flipped his aces face up at the start, but I'm not too sure if he knows this.

Re: 5/10 OOP set vs overpair
 

Do not lead into him on that flop - Or really any flop for that matter, unless you're sure he'll raise you. He's still excited that he holds AA or KK, don't take the wind out of him just yet. He's potting that flop and you bet half pot - You've already lost $75 that would've been in the middle had you just checked to him.

We really need stack sizes. But...

Check call the flop. Check the turn, and if it commits him stack wise when he bets, then c/r. If not, I check call the turn and bet big on most rivers.

Calling the flop and leading the turn is always an option as well.

Re: 5/10 OOP set vs overpair
 

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We really need stack sizes. But...

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Doh! He started with $975, I have him covered.

Re: 5/10 OOP set vs overpair
 

i like the lead into his AA/KK on the flop. It gives him a chance to get a lot more money into the pot before any more cards that can kill some action.

often i would go for the lead-3bet all in if raised. This can make villain put you on a big draw and make a him call all-in drawing to two outs.

another line i sometimes take is to lead, then debate and call the raise. then pray for a non-3flush turn, check, and hope he blows it up on the turn to 'knock you off your flush draw'. and then get it in with him being pot committed.

all that said, that isn't how the hand played out, but i like the flop bet.

as far as how the hand did play out with just being called on the flop, i think i continue to lead the turn.

this will give him a chance to 'spring his trap' if he has AA/KK. leading into the flop, and then check-raising the turn can scare off even the donkiest of opponents holding big cards. also isn't giving a free one in the off chance he is holding a big draw that he decided to play passively.

you want to play a big pot on this flop and turn, and villain seems reluctant to comply. so the money has to be put in yourself.

i lead the turn for 1/2 - 3/4 pot. and expect to be either raised here half the time, or villain will call another decent bet on the river if he went into call-down.

Re: 5/10 OOP set vs overpair
 

leading with the set is standard. lead again on the turn, please.

Re: 5/10 OOP set vs overpair
 

[ QUOTE ]
often i would go for the lead-3bet all in if raised. This can make villain put you on a big draw and make a him call all-in drawing to two outs.

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I've done this before on a similar board with good results.

Obviously it was a mistake not the lead the turn, but I was 99% sure he had aces here and I couldn't see how he could not bet them with this board. Even though I can see it was a mistake, I was truly shocked when he checked behind.

Having had a look at some of this players previous plays, it has become apparant that I need to lead every street. Even if I do, he is tight enough that I might not get value with with a set that cost me 6BBs, so I'm probably folding next time around. It almost looks like he has lost so much money with aces that he doesn't really want to be dealt them. On the other hand, my fold equity against a player like this is probably massive.

As a side note, he is definately not betting the pot if I check to him on the flop (going by his past play).

Re: 5/10 OOP set vs overpair
 

[ QUOTE ]


Flop: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($135)

I bet $60, Villain calls

Turn: J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($250)

I check ...


[/ QUOTE ]

wrong opponent for this. in fact, at this level i think this line in general sucks. pot the flop, pot the turn, bet the river. hopefully he throws a raise in there somewhere.

what happens if he bets 1/2 pot ont he turn and you cr all in? would you call with anything but the mortal nuts there? how many poker players lead/checkraise semibluff the turn all-in? none.

fim

Re: 5/10 OOP set vs overpair
 

[ QUOTE ]
this will give him a chance to 'spring his trap' if he has AA/KK.

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i think you missed the point. villain is not setting a trap, he's deathly afraid of a set here. he's probably spent waaaaay too much time on 2+2.

i had this happen where i led half pot into a guy with a set, he called, checked behind turn, then i checked the river knowing he had AA sayind no WAY he doesn't value bet on like a paired, ragged, no straight no flush board, and he checked behind.

against people this weak tight all you can do is say a prayer. and bet 3/4 pot to full pot every street. because even if they don't raise, they'll probably call you.

Re: 5/10 OOP set vs overpair
 

I like your play on the turn. It usually works when your read is right.

Are you sure he didn't have AK?

Re: 5/10 OOP set vs overpair
 

assuming villain reads pretty well, I pull a donk move and checkminraise the flop, check call the turn, hefty bet on the river.

I would alternate this with leading all 3 streets for 3/4, 2/3, 2/3.