Early position KQ, Party 15/30
 

Troublesome hand below -- I now question my line at almost every step of it.

- - -

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG <font color="#A500AF">(2+2 Player)</font> calls, Hero calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">2+2 Player raises</font>, Hero calls, CO folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">2+2 Player bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB folds, 2+2 Player calls.

River: (12.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, 2+2 Player checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB folds, 2+2 Player calls.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

- - -

Flop - I was prepared to raise the early bettor on the flop with my top pair, good kicker -- but UTG (a name I recognize from 2+2) jumped the gun and raised it himself. At that point, I make him for AQ, dominating me -- but I'm not so sure how secure I ought to be with that read. I call the two bets, rather than three bets -- was calling actually the worst option here?

Turn - My intent here was to isolate with UTG, and presumably get a cheap showdown. I figured I might be behind, but since I planned to call down, I'd try to get the two bets in now, and get to the end cheaply. He calls the raise, doesn't reraise, and the plan looks good until...

River - Q on the river makes me think my read is less secure (only one other Q out there, so the AQ seems somewhat less likely, even though his play all adds up to that hand to me), so rather than checking down, I bet again. I don't like his call (which should have told me soemthing, I guess).


...any thoughts?

Re: Early position KQ, Party 15/30
 

Incidentally, as you can probably tell from my narrative, my focus was almost entirely on UTG -- the SB who hept calling was, I figured, on a flush draw, and dropped at the end (consistent with that read).

Re: Early position KQ, Party 15/30
 

Preflop I would have raised or folded. Besides that, looks good. I doubt he limped UTG with AQ. At worst, I think you are splitting this pot. Not betting the river would have been a crime.

Re: Early position KQ, Party 15/30
 

I think your biggest mistake is "putting him on AQ". Respect the other solid players, but don't automatically put them on a hand that beats you just because they raise. If you were that sure then you should have just folded, but if you're that tight then you have other problems. Also, I would expect a solid player to raise w/ AQ to 1 limper.

Your hand has a good chance of being the best but is still quite vulnerable against a large field, I would absolutely 3 bet the flop to drive out everyone possible and define my hand.

Re: Early position KQ, Party 15/30
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think your biggest mistake is "putting him on AQ". Respect the other solid players, but don't automatically put them on a hand that beats you just because they raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair advice, I understand the pitfalls of giving credit to another good player for whatever bogeyman hand is out there against you.

But here, AQ really did make the most sense to me. He's a solid player, who called (but did not raise) under the gun. Could be a big hand like AA looking for a reraise, but more likely to be a hand good enough to call but not raise -- in my mind, that puts him in the "pretty good ace" or "middle pair" range, most likely.

He raises the flop -- would he raise with a hand like 88 or 66 here? I thin we'd hear from the set on the turn, rather than right away. Top pair makes more sense, and either KQ or AQ seem to fit the bill -- that's a hand that might well want to raise, try to isolate, and beat out the early bettor.

I'm trying to do more than invent monsters under the bed, I'm trying to make sense of the total player'a actions -- and his actions there sounded like a strong queen to me. I stayed in the pot since I felt that KQ and maybe even QJ were possibilities... so I had a shot against him in either case.



But I agree, that reraising the hand on the flop is preferable to just calling the two bets. Wonder what it would have taken to shed the (presumed) flush drawer, though...

Re: Early position KQ, Party 15/30
 

utg almost certainly doesnt have AQ, as everyone on these forums raises that UTG. There is pretty much no hand that UTG can have to beat you assuming he is playing ABC, unless he limped in with 66. Calling 2 on the flop and raising the turn is a good way to earn the most from the 2+2er, so i like that line, but the river is a value bet even if the Q doesnt come. by calling the flop you also get to see what the BB will do, and maybe be able to get away from the hand if he shows alot of strength.

Re: Early position KQ, Party 15/30
 

Like the others said, UTG likely doesn't have AQ or KQ because he should have raised those preflop if he's really a 2+2er. Similarly, you should have raised your KQ preflop!

But anyway, I'm actually putting UTG on QJs, so I think you're good. Still, I would have 3-bet the flop to try to clear out all the flush draws or at least make them pay more. But your line isn't bad either. The only possible hand you lose to is AQ, and if he has that, he's a pussy.

Re: Early position KQ, Party 15/30
 

Fold preflop.

Re: Early position KQ, Party 15/30
 

KQo is almost always a raise or fold early position. Could his moves suggest Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ? He hits the diamond on the turn and figures he's still good?

Re: Early position KQ, Party 15/30
 

Hmmm... I do enjoy the "mixed" advice tradition of 2+2. I'm not quite sure what to take from this.

I am pretty well settled that the flop call was the worst of my three options (as it often seems to be) - that I probably should have reraised, or folded, in that order.


As far as the "AQ would have raised" theory -- I guess I'm in a minority, then, that I do not usually raise with AQ when UTG, especially against a typically loose table, as this was. I probably limp more than half the time in that spot -- but I'll give mnore though to playing it aggressively there, and will be more aware of that possibility/probability against others.


Anyway... whatever my logic, flawed or otherwise, my suspicions were correct:

UTG shows AQ...
Hero shows KQ, and is outkicked with trips.
UTG takes 14.5 BB pot.

Re: Early position KQ, Party 15/30
 

[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay - maybe I just lack the standard issue 2+2 sarcasm detector here, but I'll assume this is serious.

Is the thinking here that KQo is usually good enough to open with in EP, but if UTG has already called, there's enough likelihood of being dominated that playing KQo becomes a -EV play? I don't think I've ever heard this advice -- but I suppose this hand helps to illustrate exactly why it might not be silly.

Or, maybe I'm just playing into the "if you're so dumb you don't understand this hand, maybe you shouldn't be playing at all" response. Beats me.

Re: Early position KQ, Party 15/30
 

[ QUOTE ]

As far as the "AQ would have raised" theory -- I guess I'm in a minority, then, that I do not usually raise with AQ when UTG, especially against a typically loose table, as this was. I probably limp more than half the time in that spot -- but I'll give mnore though to playing it aggressively there, and will be more aware of that possibility/probability against others.


[/ QUOTE ]
You should be raising it every time against loose players. Make them pay with their trash, because you very likely have the best hand.

Re: Early position KQ, Party 15/30
 

Raise preflop. Big cards like fewer opponents.
Reraise flop to see if he has at least a Queen. Flush draws will stay in. Though nut flush draws may reraise. What cards are you hoping arrive at the turn? Your 5 (or 3? or 2?) outs?

On the turn you probably scared him by the raise 'cause you are very unlikly to be impressed by the 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], you had something worth slowplaying. Apparently. But you don't really have a strong hand, so your isolation raise removes what? A flush draw? nope? There's two flush draws out there. Maybe BB has an 8 or another pair &lt;Q. But they will be folding to 1 bet anyway unless they play -EV which you like, right? I guess Qx may fold to a raise but call a single bet. But you want them in, right?

River you have to bet as he may fold a 2-pair or a flush draw rather than check behind.

Re: Early position KQ, Party 15/30
 

KQ is a fold UTG+1 preflop if the table is tight and 10-handed.

I like KQo or KQs and often play it even UTG tho [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] and it mixes up my raising standards.

Re: Early position KQ, Party 15/30
 

DeeJ,

That graphic is pure Ownage haha. You are NL player too I am assuming.

I agree with the advice that most of you guys gave here. If you're playing TAG good poker, KQo is either a raise or a fold DEPENDING upon the texture of the game.

I can't see why the 2+2 limped with AQo. He gives the LP players a chance to get in cheap and bust him with a set or a cheap two pair.

Have to protect your hands!

Re: Early position KQ, Party 15/30
 

I agree that the most reasonable hand for him to have preflop is probably QJs. You cant limp in EP with any of the other hands. Limping with AQ is not recommended for the reasons outlined above.

Re: Early position KQ, Party 15/30
 

idk y there telling u to fold preflop, raise that

Re: Early position KQ, Party 15/30
 

Wow this is terrible. Two 2+2 players limp on in in early position, maybe I need to find a new site. I thought we were better than the fish. Also wtf are you trying to say here.
"Turn - My intent here was to isolate with UTG, and presumably get a cheap showdown. I figured I might be behind, but since I planned to call down, I'd try to get the two bets in now, and get to the end cheaply. He calls the raise, doesn't reraise, and the plan looks good until..."

So you get 2 BB in on the turn and you consider this seeing a showdown for free? This is so terrible it makes me sick. Calling down costs 2BB and GUARANTEES you a showdown. Your logic sucks. What if he bets the river? What if you get c/r ed. You are seeing a showdown for the most money possible. Don't mean to be so harsh, but it seems like you are trying to sound intelligent and try to make your line seem good, but you are so wrong. Now it actually is a decent line as he probably has a low pp, I dont know what other hand a 2+2er would limp with UTG, but NO.

Re: Early position KQ, Party 15/30
 

i think KQo in early position has a negitave expectation. don't play it in a 10 person game. i would guess he is more likely to limp with 88 then AQ (but since he did not raise the turn i guess no 88). i raise on the flop making it 2 bets to the field (you can also wait to see if a heart falls on the turn before poping), but i think i raise on the flop. since you did not get reraised on the turn i think you do bet the river, unless you feel very strongly he has AQ. other then not limp with KQ early, i think the rest was ok.

AWFUL REPLYS
 

the replys you received are scary. while a few were good many were bad information. you toss KQ in early position 10 handed. it had a neg exp. as for AQ in many games you should NOT raise UTG with 10 people. the idea of raising with KQo early will cost you a lot of $ and shows a total lack of understanding of the hands value. KQs you can raise with in many games, AQs is a raise in most games. but the raise, raise, raise ideas that are often presented here are scary. also if you have pokertracker, look at KQ in early position. one more thing QJo is a hand that is trash. no good player limps with it. in most games the only time to play QJo is if it is folded to you in late position and then if you play - you raise.

Re: AWFUL REPLYS
 

I think playing KQ in EP is a marginal call, but not as clear cut of a fold as you make it. I agree with the logic of not playing it, but the problem is that there are so many inferior players that play stakes that they shouldnt these days and pay off top pair with bad hands. Obviously the reason to muck KQ is for siutations much like this. But do keep in mind the general quality of players at party before you say always muck this hand in EP, it depends on the table you are sitting at. If there are 2 people paying off rivers with 2nd pair or playing 10 10 the same way as UTG played AQ that hand, then your starting hands should be adjusted accordingly in my opinion. Again, i really think it is opponent dependant.

Re: AWFUL REPLYS
 

I defy you to show any kind of proof that KQ is not profitable in the hands of a good player even from early position.

You limp with the hand in order to entice players to come in behind you with worse kings and queens (similar considerations apply to limping (instead of raising), with AQ). You raise when they'll come anyway regardless whether it's 1 or 2 bets. The reason NOT to raise is if you're only likely to get play from better hands, such as AA,KK,QQ or AK, AQ.

Why wouldn't it be profitable? Do you really think kicker problems will come in to play often enough when you flop top pair to make the hand unplayable? Do you think the straights KQ will make are too likely to be beaten? That's ridiculous.

KQ probably should be folded in the toughest of games, but I've only encountered a few of these in the 15-30 on Party. They do exist, but are very rare.

Re: AWFUL REPLYS
 

Well, I appreciate the numerous replies, even if they are frequently contradictory. I realize that the game is not black-and-white, and that there is logic behind each of the various strategies being argued here. Just following the thinking is helpful to me, and I'll take the potshots along the way, if that's the toll to be paid for the ride.

Thanks for the many thoughts, and to nearly all the posters.

You\'re wrong
 

[ QUOTE ]
the replys you received are scary. while a few were good many were bad information. you toss KQ in early position 10 handed. it had a neg exp.


[/ QUOTE ]
You're dead wrong on this one:

10-player EV by hand and position

Note that the above stats include both good and bad games, so the actual EV if you use proper game selection should be higher.

[ QUOTE ]

as for AQ in many games you should NOT raise UTG with 10 people.


[/ QUOTE ]
Wrong again. In fact, not raising AQo UTG with 10 people is absolutely criminal advice for most loose games. And if you're not playing in a loose game....get a table change.

[ QUOTE ]

also if you have pokertracker, look at KQ in early position.


[/ QUOTE ]
I did. I only have 60,000 hands in my database, but I filtered it to include all the KQo hands where I'm UTG, UTG+1, or UTG+2, there are exactly 10 people dealt in, and I raise. That's a pretty restrictive search, so the result is only 44 hands. Not enough for statistical significance, but for whatever it's worth, the sample average BB/100 is 0.13. IMHO, the true mean is higher.

[ QUOTE ]

one more thing QJo is a hand that is trash. no good player limps with it. in most games the only time to play QJo is if it is folded to you in late position and then if you play - you raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with you that QJo in EP is usually trash. And yes, I'll open-raise with it in LP. However, I'll limp with it in LP if there are limpers in front of me. And QJs is a whole other matter, in that you can often limp with it in EP as well.

Anyway, I hope this is the end of this discussion.

Re: Early position KQ, Party 15/30
 

[ QUOTE ]
Like the others said, UTG likely doesn't have AQ or KQ because he should have raised those preflop if he's really a 2+2er. Similarly, you should have raised your KQ preflop!

But anyway, I'm actually putting UTG on QJs, so I think you're good. Still, I would have 3-bet the flop to try to clear out all the flush draws or at least make them pay more. But your line isn't bad either. The only possible hand you lose to is AQ, and if he has that, he's a pussy.

[/ QUOTE ]

IS it really SOP these days to raise with KQo in EP?

-Scott

Re: Early position KQ, Party 15/30
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Like the others said, UTG likely doesn't have AQ or KQ because he should have raised those preflop if he's really a 2+2er. Similarly, you should have raised your KQ preflop!

But anyway, I'm actually putting UTG on QJs, so I think you're good. Still, I would have 3-bet the flop to try to clear out all the flush draws or at least make them pay more. But your line isn't bad either. The only possible hand you lose to is AQ, and if he has that, he's a pussy.

[/ QUOTE ]

IS it really SOP these days to raise with KQo in EP?


[/ QUOTE ]
I seem to remember a long thread on this a year ago with the consensus being that yes, it's SOP. Regardless, I do it every time.

Re: Early position KQ, Party 15/30
 

limping with AQ is a play done to vary. If someone limps AQ UTG or UTG+1, it is something odd, as most people would raise. As for raising/calling/folding KQo, depends on the game. If youre likely to get 3 bet, then throw it away. If someone has limped, call and try to hit a K or Q and get paid by the field. First one in is tougher, as you dont want to be raised by a late position player in a small pot.

Re: You\'re wrong
 

You seriously mean KQo is a clear UTG raising hand? While I'd say it's fold, I will stretch myself to agree that it's not a disaster to raise utg either, just a tiny mistake, which even winning players make several of.

I just can't imagine raising KQo utg being profitable in anything other than tables closely resembling a play money one. And yes, the 44 hand sample is really too small.

lars

Re: You\'re wrong
 

I really don't know what tables you guys play at, but at the tables I play at KQo is a pretty good hand. I mean, how many hands are better than KQ? You don't think people will play worse kings and queens? Then you are at the wrong table.

Re: AWFUL REPLYS
 

kevin, hold em is a game of position. very few hands have an pos ev up front. with so many players still to act it is often raised behind you. you want proof, look at your pokertracker. if you want to play KQo up front in a 10 handed game, and maybe raise with it, i'd love you in my game. loose a few players and it is playable.

Re: AWFUL REPLYS
 

gg, sure it always depends. however, in an aggressive game, as most pp 15/30 are, and in a 10 handed game, it will have a neg expectation upfront. but sure there are games that it can be played in. very few at pp, and 10 handed which was what he was discussing.

Re: AWFUL REPLYS
 

[ QUOTE ]
gg, sure it always depends. however, in an aggressive game, as most pp 15/30 are, and in a 10 handed game, it will have a neg expectation upfront. but sure there are games that it can be played in. very few at pp, and 10 handed which was what he was discussing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you even read Nightwish's response?

Re: You\'re wrong
 

nightwish, sorry, but i know i am correct about the KQo. and i too SOMETIMES will raise with AQo. read the essay in INSIDE THE POKER MIND (a great book) about AQo. in general will you seem like like a nice guy, however i disagree with you often, and i think you are too agressive. aggressive play is correct, but it can be taken too far.

Re: You\'re wrong
 

[ QUOTE ]
nightwish, sorry, but i know i am correct about the KQo.

[/ QUOTE ]

In the face of actual data. So we have data on one hand, and Amulet's intuition on the other. Hmmmmmm.

Re: You\'re wrong
 

again, sure KQo is a good hand. but since this is a game of position -- very few hands show a positive ev upfront. it is often raised behind you, then you are often dominated. if it is raised and you hit, where are you? minddle position, i like it, not in a 10 person game i like it. passive game it can work. but i think many are forgetting how impt position is. i'll take it a step further AJo which is a better hand, should be dumped in a 10 person agressive game if you are upfront -- most pp 15/30 games are very aggressive. and we were discussing pp 15/30.

again the most impt thing is that very few hands have a postive expectation upfront. position, position, position,

Re: You\'re wrong
 

yes

Re: You\'re wrong
 

If it is really "often" raised behind me after I raise my KQ UTG, then I submit it is impossible that I am "often" dominated.

Re: You\'re wrong
 

i have seen several winning players pokertracker - with over 100,000 hand. two of whom i consider among the best at 15/30 pp. i think your being a bit of a jerk here clark, insitead of contributing. i like KQo too. but if you want to play it upfront, or raise with it come join my game, i'd love you in it.

Re: You\'re wrong
 

[ QUOTE ]
i have seen several winning players pokertracker - with over 100,000 hand. two of whom i consider among the best at 15/30 pp. i think your being a bit of a jerk here clark, insitead of contributing. i like KQo too. but if you want to play it upfront, or raise with it come join my game, i'd love you in it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because I don't agree with you, I'm not contributing? [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Re: You\'re wrong
 

no, you have pokertracker? then back up nighwish's #'s. i doubt you can. merry christmas.