1/2 nl live AQo
 

stacks/position:

hero ~500$/BB, A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
only scary villain has 600$ LP.

EP villain raises to 7$, 5 callers, hero makes it 25$. everyone calls, in fact someone goes all in for 30$ total, everyone just calls the 5$.

flop (176$ after rake):

7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

checks to scary villain who pushes. small stack calls for 30$, puts his head down (he has been beaten real bad all night), hero ?

Re: 1/2 nl live AQo
 

it's a fold right....you are around 30% to win....i'm thinking your q outs are no good, and your ace outs *might* be good but I doubt it.

Re: 1/2 nl live AQo
 

You're not clear who has position on who (with regards to scary villian).

If you checked this flop... you brought this tough decision upon yourself.

If villian donkbet you all in, I fold and feel good about it.

Re: 1/2 nl live AQo
 

[ QUOTE ]
Come on Bryce, there are more important things than SRI LANKA to worry about...

[/ QUOTE ]


This movie has so many great quotes, "dont just stand there, eat it."

Put everyone all in a spike a spade. This game is so easy.

Re: 1/2 nl live AQo
 

Quick decision is quite easy and already been suggested - folding will not hurt you much. For calling here you need strong reads on your oppnents in order to narrow down hands they might be having (especially LP). And I don't see how can anybody calculate odds in this situation.

Analyzing this hand I can think of something like this:

His hand / Prob. having it / Win% / Conrib.%

Kx one spade / 30% / 44% / 8.80%
Pair / 20% / 49% / 9.80%
2 pair / 10% / 35% / 3.50%
Trips / 30% / 28% / 8.40%
Flush / 10% / 28% 2.80%

Your overall win% having this is 37.7%.

Of course I don't know this guy and his % might be much different from what I used.

Anyway having this your pot odds are 1.65 to 1.

So you need to call $475 to win $475+$176+$30=$681. Pot odds suggest that pot needs to be $783+ (475*1.65) for profitable call. So you are about $100 short. Now question to you - will other people who are still in the hand put this $100 seeing this madness? Again - I don't think so.

So even very optimistic calculations suggest to let this hand go.

Re: 1/2 nl live AQo
 

[ QUOTE ]
Quick decision is quite easy and already been suggested - folding will not hurt you much. For calling here you need strong reads on your oppnents in order to narrow down hands they might be having (especially LP). And I don't see how can anybody calculate odds in this situation.

Analyzing this hand I can think of something like this:

His hand / Prob. having it / Win% / Conrib.%

Kx one spade / 30% / 44% / 8.80%
Pair / 20% / 49% / 9.80%
2 pair / 10% / 35% / 3.50%
Trips / 30% / 28% / 8.40%
Flush / 10% / 28% 2.80%

Your overall win% having this is 37.7%.

Of course I don't know this guy and his % might be much different from what I used.

Anyway having this your pot odds are 1.65 to 1.

So you need to call $475 to win $475+$176+$30=$681. Pot odds suggest that pot needs to be $783+ (475*1.65) for profitable call. So you are about $100 short. Now question to you - will other people who are still in the hand put this $100 seeing this madness? Again - I don't think so.

So even very optimistic calculations suggest to let this hand go.

[/ QUOTE ]


very nice post. i folded, noone else called, he had J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] hit river, i cried inside but knew it was the right fold.

thanks for all the suggestions!

Re: 1/2 nl live AQo
 

[ QUOTE ]
stacks/position:

hero ~500$/BB, A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
only scary villain has 600$ LP.

EP villain raises to 7$, 5 callers, hero makes it 25$. everyone calls, in fact someone goes all in for 30$ total, everyone just calls the 5$.

flop (176$ after rake):

7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

checks to scary villain who pushes. small stack calls for 30$, puts his head down (he has been beaten real bad all night), hero ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why check the flop? Lead for $150.