Party 10/20NL, missed OES&Flush draw OOP on river, correct bluff size?
 

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $20 BB (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

MP1 ($1980)
MP2 ($2586.14)
CO ($1842)
Button ($2147)
Hero ($2067)
BB ($605)
UTG ($1775)
UTG+1 ($2260)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
i]1 fold[/i], UTG+1 raises to $65, 2 folds, CO calls $65, 1 fold, Hero calls $55, BB calls $45.

Flop: ($260) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)

Hero bets $175</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $175, CO folds.

Turn: ($610) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)</font>
Hero bets $350 , UTG+1 calls $350.

River: ($1310) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 players)

Opponent is relatively new to me, niether ultra tight or Lag, I've been somewhat tight the 3 rounds since I sat down at this table. Obviously I've missed but that's an ideal scare card for me. What is the correct ammount to bluff here to blow out what I assume is an overpair, yet lose the minimum if he's the type who just can't let AA go. I'd consider a rebluff very, very unlikely under the circumstances if I open lead and he had AhKh or something similar.

Re: Party 10/20NL, missed OES&Flush draw OOP on river, correct bluff s
 

All in.

I just saw that you want to lose the minimum when he calls your bet, but I just don't think anything other than an all in, he will fold to. I guess maybe something like $800, but I would never leave money like that on the table with a hand there, so...

Re: Party 10/20NL, missed OES&Flush draw OOP on river, correct bluff s
 

[ QUOTE ]
All in.

[/ QUOTE ]
You don't think half pot on turn, overbet pot on river might strike someone as fishy? If you're going to take this line, I think you should make a bigger bet on the turn so that it is believable that you have a made hand and are worried about protecting against draws. And then the river push will be pot-sized instead of over pot-sized.

Re: Party 10/20NL, missed OES&Flush draw OOP on river, correct bluff size?
 

bet more on turn, but as played i like 900.

Re: Party 10/20NL, missed OES&Flush draw OOP on river, correct bluff s
 

900

Re: Party 10/20NL, missed OES&Flush draw OOP on river, correct bluff size?
 

What about check turn, take the freebie if he checks behind, c/r all in if he bets?

Re: Party 10/20NL, missed OES&Flush draw OOP on river, correct bluff size?
 

If I had fewer outs and less reason to believe they were good I would have bet more on the turn but there are numerous reasons why I played it like I did. His hand is highly, highly unlikely to be a draw vs a big pair. If he raises me on the turn, I'll push and I'm hoping he's good enough to laydown AA here since my line if I do that looks an awfully lot like a set. If he just calls, I'm getting solid implied odds, will likely get paid off nicely on my straight outs, perhaps less on my flush outs and he's still a long way from being pot commited so I've got room for a big bluff without him feeling forced into a call if some sort of scare card comes. If I bet the full pot, he's left on the river with with less than what's in the pot which reduces my odds of a successful bluff since he's getting better return.

Re: Party 10/20NL, missed OES&Flush draw OOP on river, correct bluff size?
 

I considered it but I didn't think that line would look consistent with a set, I have no idea how famaliar he is with my play but I won't usually check a set there. And yes,if raised on the turn unless he makes an enormous raise and completely commits himself, obviously I'm pushing here.

Re: Party 10/20NL, missed OES&Flush draw OOP on river, correct bluff size?
 

Huh? What do you think the smallest raise is that commits him here? I don't think it qualifies as 'enormous'.

Re: Party 10/20NL, missed OES&Flush draw OOP on river, correct bluff size?
 

Ok, fine, enormous is a poor choice of words. If he goes to between 1k and 1.3k then he's committed to a point where my fold equity drops to almost nothing and I'm better off calling and hoping to hit. If he bets less than that, he's likely leaving himself wiggle room to fold if I push from fear of getting stacked by a set.