Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

Note: this was posted in the earlier thread on the WC Draw as well, but figured it was also worthy of its own thread.

Some other thoughts about the WC Draw:

England didn't get that bad of a draw at all. Paraguay, whom they've owned the past 5 times they've played them, Trinidad, a first-time team that's probably going to be just happy to be there, like Jamaica in '98, and Sweden, who are tough but not world-class tough, in addition to which England will probably have already qualified for the Second Round by the time they ever play them.

Germany is going to the Second Round. Ecuador can't win any game that isn't played on top of an Andean mountain, Poland is probably the weakest European team (with the possible exception of Switzerland) in this tournament, and Costa Rica was the 3rd-place CONCACAF team and while they're usually competitive in the World Cup, they rarely come out on top. I think the Germans might be in a little trouble once they come OUT of this group, but especially considering that they're the home team, they were practically just HANDED 9 points here.

Group C is the Group of Death (although the US group is tough too, too tough for the US I fear). The worst team in it is Ivory Coast, who are probably the most -talented- African team in this World Cup. The Serbians are quite good and have been for years, although they rarely threaten to WIN any of these tournaments. Argentina vs. Holland? Match of the first round. Too bad, the Ivorians probably would've stood a good chance at the Second Round or Quarterfinals if they hadn't been thrown to the dogs like this.

Mexico and Portugal have a walk in Group D. Iran is saying this is their best team ever, which is kind of like Phil Hellmuth saying that he feels like he's really on top of his high-stakes Stud Hi-Lo ring game. They still ain't good enough. Angola's going to be up for the Portugal game (hundreds of years of brutal colonization will do that to you), but they don't have the talent to do anything other than maybe make it close. Portugal is the only team in this group, though, that has ANY chance to make a real move later in the tournament, and it's not like they're going to pushed here. Plus, it is REALLY the last chance for their "Golden Generation" now. Now or never for them.

OK, now that I've stopped panicking about the US draw, I can look at it a bit more objectively. Italy is gonna be a problem, especially now that they have a couple people who can put the ball in the net, and a coach and system that will allow them to do so. That I stand firm on. Now that I've had a few moments to calm down, the Czech Republic seems to me to be a team a lot like Portugal was in 2002...i.e., a highly-hyped "dark horse" pick, but no real reason to go out of one's mind with fear about playing them. What have they ever won? They've had a few good runs in European Championships, but their WC history is spotty at best. We can definitely get a draw, and maybe a win, out of this match. Ghana is certainly beatable. The fact that they've won the Youth World Cup a couple times, and have won more African Nations Cups than anybody (but most of them years and years ago), means that they have some talented players, but this is their first World Cup, and they'll be going up against a US team that's way more experienced at this level. The more I think about it, the more I think the US can advance as long as we don't let the Italy game get out of hand.

Group F: Brazil, in a walk. Australia might give them a worry or 2 for say, 15 minutes, but they are not going to be threatened until late, late in this tournament, if at all. In fact, I think the only 2 teams that can beat them at all are England and France (more on the French later). Yes, I know England lost to them in the 2002 QFs and Brazil's team this year is better than in 2002. So is England's, and England was the only team in that tournament that ever had Brazil in danger of elimination, or that could match up with them at all...a few less bonehead plays in that match and perhaps the World Cup is sitting at FA headquarters in London the last 4 years. Australia I think goes through as well, and has a shot at the quarterfinals. While I wouldn't be shocked to see Japan or Croatia go through (either one of them is certainly capable of beating the Aussies), I'm not predicting it.

Group G: France easily wins it. Why is everyone so down on them? Yes, they struggled to qualify, but remember, so did Brazil in 2002...not many people were picking them to win in Japan/Korea, and they dominated the tournament. Yes, Zidane came out of int'l retirement and is getting a little long in the tooth. He's still Zidane. He's still dangerous. And they have the world's greatest striker in Henry, and the world's greatest defensive midfielder in Vieira. And this is a sprint, not a marathon. The advancing age of some key players I don't think is going to be nearly the factor people think it is. Anyone who doesn't think that a team with Zidane, Vieira, Henry, Trezeguet, Thuram, Pires, Barthez (still a perfectly serviceable keeper) and Cisse doesn't have at least an outside chance to win the World Cup is on drugs, IMHO. They're also playing in a neighboring country, so they'll have plenty of support. Speaking of on drugs, I'm gonna get flamed for this one, but -I think Togo has a chance to advance out of this group-. Not a GREAT chance, but a chance. Switzerland is one of the 2 weakest European teams in the WC. I am not sure South Korea can duplicate their 2002 results without 75,000 of their red-clad fans screaming in the opposition's faces at 450 decibels for 90 minutes, although on talent they're probably #2 in this group. If the Koreans DO get to Round 2, they're not going any farther this time. You know what, I'm going to go out on a limb here. France first in this group, Togo second. There's always a big surprise in Round 1, and this may be it.

Group H is the group I wish the US had been drawn in. The seeded team, Spain, is one where you look up "World Cup chokers" in the dictionary and find a map of their country (although they were badly robbed vs. Korea in the 2002 QFs and could easily have reached the final vs. Brazil if either of their 2 perfectly good goals in that game were awarded). If anything happens to Shevchenko, as great a player as he is, God help Ukraine. Tunisia are African champions, true, but that's mostly because they were the home team and benefitted from some VERY questionable refereeing decisions, and they have never done ANYTHING at the World Cup. Saudi Arabia couldn't possibly be worse than they were in Korea/Japan, and they might win a game this time and perhaps have a tiny chance of even -advancing- in this weak group if they get some good bounces, but no one's gonna fear them.

June cannot come quickly enough.

--Scott

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

As far as the US is concerned, Czech Republic is clearly the stronger of the two european sides in this group. I think a draw against them would be an extreamly welcome result. I believe Italy is a winnable game but obviously a draw would be welcome in that match as well. The key for the US will be to salvage two points from their first two games.

Assumking Ghana goes winnless in this group, should the US enter the final match with only one point, they'll be facing a situation in which with a win of the Ghana, they would have four points and would have to rely on a team which has already qualified to win their final match against their opponent who is still fighting for a qualification spot (Italy-Czech match plays after US-Ghana). Then, even if such a scenario whould play out, the US would be tied with either Italy or Czech (presumably the team that they drew) and would need to advance on goal differencial.

Defense will be a key in this group, which fortunately I believe the US does have in their favor. Keller is one of the top keepers in the world and should he stay healthy the US has a realistic chance to move on from Group E.

Then not to look ahead, but a second place group finish would most likely match the Americans up against Brazil...

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

Look Czech.rep might have a better squad than Italy but theyre just not a better team.
Italy is a very wise team who will do a lot of ugly thing to win.
Anyway who will Freedy Edu rooting for in the ghana-usa game??

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

All in all this was one of the worst ways that this draw could have played out. However, I sincerely doubt that any of the other countries in the group are pleased by their situation either.

I would not be surprised to see any minus Ghana advance.

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

the US team will have to study the Greece/Czech Rep game like no tommorrow. This is how they can win, it won't be pretty, but if you kick Nedved and Rosiscky a few times, the service to the Czech forwards will be nil. The Czechs do have a problem with firepower up front. Jan Koller is not a great striker, he is just tall, well the US has defenders who can counter that

Italy can be beat too, but, it won't be easy. The US will have to make the most of their chances, and that will be hard considering that Buffon is arguably the best keeper in the World. Italy's front line though will have a hard time. Pippo has been overrated for a long time, Del Piero has never regained his amazing form pre-injury, Cassano isn't consistent, and Vieri has been showing his age in recent years. The key again will be whether or not the US will be willing to play ugly and put the boot to the italian midfielders. We will probably have to play a defensive 3-5-2 or a defensive 4-4-2.

THe strength for the US overall will be their defense, goalkeeping, and the wingplay, namely of Demarcus Beasley. I do worry about our strike power as Eddie Johnson is the only reliable striker, and he hasn't faced opposition like this ever in his career. Brian McBride is solid and has done well in the Prem when he has played there

The US will gain respect IMO in how they will play at WC 2006. The MLS has been improving and has turned into a decent league and will help provide players for this US squad. We have a strong defense and a solid midfield, so if we can make the most of our chances and do well from set pieces, we may be able to pick up 4 or 5 pts, and that might be enough to go through to the next rd

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

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Thoughts on the World Cup Draw

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f$@#!

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

Even if the US advances, it pretty much has to win the group to avoid elimination in the first game after group play. Brazil is pretty much guaranteed winning group F, so they would play the runner up of group E.

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

jgunnip,

you said "(Italy-Czech match plays after US-Ghana)" Is this true? In the past they play the 3rd matchday matches at the same time to eliminate any sort of advantage of playing later. This is precisely because a team will play differently if they know they need a draw versus maybe needing to win and a team will play differently if they may need a draw than if they're through.

I don't see why they would change that.

Puzzled,

Jared

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

of course its not true.

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

Here are my predictions for the group rankings. They could change rather drastically, obviously as injuries and form between now and then are bound to change things.

A:
Germany
Poland
Costa Rica
Ecuador

B:
England
Sweden
Paraguay
T&T

C:
Netherlands
Argentina
S&M
Ivory Coast

D:
Portugal
Mexico
Iran
Angola

E:
Czech Republic
Italy
US
Ghana

F:
Brazil
Croatia
Australia
Japan

G:
France
Switzerland
South Korea
Togo

H:
Spain
Ukraine
Saudi Arabia
Tunisia

Most picks I suspect are standard except Switzerland going through from G. They have a huge advantage of basically playing 3 home games. South Korea aren't that good, but used home field advantage to make an amazing run last world cup. On that note I think Poland and the Netherlands should also greatly benefit from playing very nearby. I think Australia has a good shot at going through in group F. The US has it tough and I don't see going through.

One of the more important parts of the draw is the matchups in the knockout stage. With my picks the bracket looks like this:

Germany vs Sweden
Netherlands vs Mexico

Czech Republic vs Croatia
France vs Ukraine



Poland vs England
Portugal vs Argentina

Brazil vs Italy
Spain vs Switzerland

England and Sweden play on the last matchday. Winning that group will be of vital importance to avoid meeting hosts Germany in the round of 16. I think discussion of the Czech Republic or Italy mailing it in on the last matchday is overdone because the second place team from the group will likely play Brazil in the round of 16. Both these pairings make two matches that could be between teams already qualified much more exciting.

Looking at the schedules the third matchday will be ridiculously good. Costa Rica - Poland, Croatia - Australia, Switzerland - Korea, and Ukraine - Tunisia are likely to be 2-3 with the winner going through. In the other four groups it's likely to be 1 vs 2 going into the last day. In two of these there will be much at stake as I said above. Argentina - Netherlands may not be playing for much at that point but it should be quite good as well.