Samll pair on the BB, after a raise.
 

Hello,

Say I'm on the BB with a small pair. There is one raise and 4 or more callers before it gets to me.

According to WLLH (ed II) I should call as I'm getting good enough odds to draw for trips. (11:1 Vs 8:1)

However, my own thinking has me concerned that anyone else with a higher pair is also getting the same odds and is just a likely to hit trips as I am and just because I hit trips doesn't mean that someone else didn't hit higher trips. The two events are not mutually exclusive.

I understand that if I hit trips it means that there is one less card for anyone else to make trips with but that still leaves two cards.

Surely this possibility has to be factored into consideration. My question is how do people do this?

It is a case of wanting much better pot odds before you call a raise on the BB with a small PP?

Do you call anyway then watch how play unfolds? (This seems a way to trap yourself to me.)

Any insights appreciated.

-Jim

P.S. This is only my second post and my flame suit is at the dry cleaners (don't ask) so please take it easy if I'm asking a dumb question.

Re: Samll pair on the BB, after a raise.
 

Yeah, there is some concern, so as the lower your pair is, the higher your implied odds need to be. Set over set does happen, but very rare. If you get too much heat after you flop the set, then go into check call mode. Most times you will see tptk or two pair giving you the most heat.

I think what you need to be more worried about is when you fill up as an underboat and the paired card is connected with the last card. Somone with 2 pair just filled up and then you also need to go into check / call mode.

Re: Samll pair on the BB, after a raise.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hello,

Say I'm on the BB with a small pair. There is one raise and 4 or more callers before it gets to me.

According to WLLH (ed II) I should call as I'm getting good enough odds to draw for trips. (11:1 Vs 8:1)

However, my own thinking has me concerned that anyone else with a higher pair is also getting the same odds and is just a likely to hit trips as I am and just because I hit trips doesn't mean that someone else didn't hit higher trips. The two events are not mutually exclusive.

I understand that if I hit trips it means that there is one less card for anyone else to make trips with but that still leaves two cards.

Surely this possibility has to be factored into consideration. My question is how do people do this?

It is a case of wanting much better pot odds before you call a raise on the BB with a small PP?

Do you call anyway then watch how play unfolds? (This seems a way to trap yourself to me.)

Any insights appreciated.

-Jim

P.S. This is only my second post and my flame suit is at the dry cleaners (don't ask) so please take it easy if I'm asking a dumb question.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good question. Quick answer is easy call your odds justify it. Your concern can be generally considered weak tight - you can't fear monsters under the bed too much (particularly in a limit hold'em game).

To quantify this, lets say you are flipping a coin. Heads will come up 50% of the time.
If I'm flipping a coin at the same time, the chances both of us flip heads is
50%*50% = 25% (it could be HH, HT, TT, TH)

Using this logic, you can apply it to flopping an underset. The chances of flopping a set is about 7:1 or lets round to 15%. If someone also has a pocket pair (which you aren't sure of, but lets assume), he also has a 15% chance of flopping it.

BOTH of you flop sets together then is 15%*15%, which is 2.25%. This means its rare and you can't really worry about what happens 2.25% of the time. Focus on the other 97.75% of the time. (read ignore that fear for the most part).

Plus, post flop action would give you an idea what villain may have. While folding a set will generally be difficult absent rock solid reads, hyperaggression would at least slow you down and minimize your losses.

Hope this helps!

Re: Samll pair on the BB, after a raise.
 

2.25% of both hitting sets.

But there's only a 40% chance that 2 people are dealt pocket pairs.

And this is assuming that their PP is smaller than yours.

But one thing you do have to factor in is that big pocket pairs will generally see 4 or 5 cards rather than just the flop.

Whatever the result, if you pretended set over set possibilities never happened you would be making a very small mistake.

Re: Samll pair on the BB, after a raise.
 

I believe it's less than 2.25%

You got that by multiplying 15%*15%. But if you hit your set on the flop the odds of another PP hitting on the other 2 flop cards is only around 8-9%. Which lowers it to about 1.3%.

And like Kwaz said, only a 40% chance 2 players have PPs, which also includes PPs smaller than yours.

I'm not that good at math, but factoring in all that, set over set is very rare.

Re: Samll pair on the BB, after a raise.
 

Set over set is a pretty small worry. Should not be part of your preflop odds-calling decision. If you're even getting 5-1 PF, it should usually be a call as you'll make up a fair amount after the flop. Does anything pay off much better than a set? You certainly don't need 8:1 to make a call good.

Further along, that 40% chance that 2 players have a pair PF -- is that flat odds? or is that the odds that if YOU have a pair, another player at a full table will?

I know it doesn't consider the fact that there are all those cold-callers. That's gotta make that 40% figure faintly rediculous for any sort of odds discussion. Not that it isn't a good rule of thumb...