100 vs 6500
 

a friend an i have a bet going on the wsop me. he picks 100 names and i get the field. we did the stats to make it a fair bet bassed on the assumption that a pro is 3x as good as a random player. if none of the 100 make the final table i win x, if one of the 100 make the table and don't win he gets y and if one of the 100 wins he gets z. it works out that i should win x 66% of the time.

here r the names that my friend picked:
Yehia "Joe" Awada
Chris Bigler
Andy Bloch
Farzad Bonyadi
Humberto Brenes
Doyle Brunson
Todd Brunson
Joe Cassidy
"Miami" John Cernuto
Johnny Chan
David Chiu
Paul "Eskimo" Clark
TJ Cloutier
Dave Colclough
Hoyt Corkins
Allen Cunningham
John D'Agostino
Paul Darden
Kassem "Freddy" Deeb
Charidimos "Harry" Demetriou
Asher Derei
Annie Duke
Antonio Esfandiari
Eli Elezra
Chris "Jesus" Ferguson
Scott Fischman
Layne Flack
Ted Forrest
Prahlad Friedman
Bill Gazes
Kirill Gerasimov
Chau Giang
Alan Goehring
Phil Gordon
Barry Greenstein
Mark Gregorich
David Grey
Hasan Habib
Gus Hansen
Jennifer Harman-Traniello
Dan Harrington
Phil Hellmuth, Jr.
Juha Helppi
John Hennigan
Bobby Hoff
Can Kim Hua
Phil Ivey
Chip Jett
John Juanda
Mel Judah
Thomas "Thunder" Keller
Hung La
Meng La
Phil "Unabomber" Laak
Nam Le
Tuan Le
Howard Lederer
Alfredo "Toto" Leonidas
Kathy Liebert
Erick Lindgren
Jeffrey Lisandro
Marcel Luske
Minh Ly
Hieu Ngoc "Tony" Ma
Lee Markholt
Mike Matusow
"Minneapolis" Jim Meehan
Michael "The Grinder" Mizrachi
Juan Carlos Mortensen
Daniel Negreanu
Men "The Master" Nguyen
Minh Nguyen
Thuan "Scotty" Nguyen
David Oppenheim
David Pham
Thang "Kido" Pham
John Phan
Young Phan
Paul Phillips
David "Chip" Reese
Blair Rodman
Erik "Erik123" Sagstrom
Huck Seed
Erik Seidel
Mark Seif
Charlie Shoten
Gavin Smith
David Sklansky
Surinder Sunar
Gabriel Thaler
Dewey Tomko
Justin Cuong Van "JC" Tran
Thithi "Mimi" Tran
David "Devilfish" Ulliott
Amir Vahedi
Ram Vaswani
Lee Watkinson
David Williams
Robert Williamson III
Steve Zolotow

what do u think about the bet? assumed edge of a pro? names picked?

Re: 100 vs 6500
 

You absolutely got the best of it. nb

Re: 100 vs 6500
 

I think you may have the worst of it here.

I might be misunderstanding the bet though. Is it even money that one of these players will make the final table or not?

Re: 100 vs 6500
 

It definitely looks as if the pro's have learned & adjusted to the large fields and internet amatuers. I would bet that at least 1 out of that 100 will make the final table.

Re: 100 vs 6500
 

[ QUOTE ]
You absolutely got the best of it. nb

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you may have the worst of it here.

I might be misunderstanding the bet though. Is it even money that one of these players will make the final table or not?

[/ QUOTE ]

Here is Exhibit A for why poker will always be good. Even supposedly studious players don't know how to analyze a situation.

Guys, you don't even know what x, y, and z are. How could you possibly tell whether the bet is good or bad?

Re: 100 vs 6500
 

[ QUOTE ]
Guys, you don't even know what x, y, and z are. How could you possibly tell whether the bet is good or bad?

[/ QUOTE ]

the exact vaules for x y and z dosen't really need to be told to the world. however they r proportional so that (the chance that one of the 100 does not make the table [66%])*x is as close to equal (the chance for one of the 100 to make the table [28.9%])*y + (the chance one of the 100 wins [4.4%])*z.

edit: percentages were wrong

Re: 100 vs 6500
 

[ QUOTE ]
Guys, you don't even know what x, y, and z are. How could you possibly tell whether the bet is good or bad?

[/ QUOTE ]

Thug said:

[ QUOTE ]
it works out that i should win x 66% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

What he meant was that if (at least) one of the 100 makes the Final Table exactly 33.3% of the time, he breaks even. He also listed the assumptions through which x, y, and z were calculated, so shouldn't that be enough?

Also, my list rocks.

Re: 100 vs 6500
 

[ QUOTE ]
Guys, you don't even know what x, y, and z are. How could you possibly tell whether the bet is good or bad?

[/ QUOTE ]

My thoughts exactly

Re: 100 vs 6500
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Guys, you don't even know what x, y, and z are. How could you possibly tell whether the bet is good or bad?

[/ QUOTE ]

the exact vaules for x y and z dosen't really need to be told to the world.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then, give us proportional numbers. For example, if x, y, and z are actually $100, $200, and $300, then tell us to use $5, $10, and $15 to analyze the bet.

Telling us about these assumptions you're making isn't really helpful because very few people are going to agree with those assumptions.

Re: 100 vs 6500
 

x : y : z
1 : 1.74 : 3.69