($27) - 1.5bb\'s left in BB, call or fold
 

NO RUNNING THE NUMBERS ALLOWED

Seat 3: bluefeet (1475 in chips)
Seat 6: pooh (3180 in chips) <- yeah, THAT pooh [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
Seat 7: (5165 in chips)
Seat 8: (3680 in chips)
all ante 50
Seat 8: posts small blind 300
bluefeet: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bluefeet [7s 5d]
pooh: folds cuz he's scared of me
Seat 7: raises 600 to 1200
Seat 8: folds
bluefeet: ???

same game, another hand observed by mr.durron.

villian has NOT been overly aggressive on/near the bubble.

i have t825 left if i fold - BB+ante @ t650.

what do YOU do?

Re: ($27) - 1.5bb\'s left in BB, call or fold
 

Push and get ready to go out 4th. You can't fold away almost half your stack here. I should add that I've been in this situation before (at a $27) had villain fold to the push. I held AKo that time, of course. :-)

OK, now I'm going to run the numbers to make sure I'm right.

Re: ($27) - 1.5bb\'s left in BB, call or fold
 

Slip a purple chip under the table to seat 6 and run away giggling...(thats w/o running numbers though)

Re: ($27) - 1.5bb\'s left in BB, call or fold
 

My guess: fold.

Re: ($27) - 1.5bb\'s left in BB, call or fold
 

I push and pray I get lucky. You are going to get called here if you push, or on the next hand that you decided to play. With nearly half your stack in the pot already, I think you push here knowing that your cards are most likely live and you have a shot at some sort of straight.

Re: ($27) - 1.5bb\'s left in BB, call or fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
what do YOU do?

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably go get myself a beer from the fridge. Start another tourney. Maybe watch some porn.

You do mean AFTER I call and lose, right?

Re: ($27) - 1.5bb\'s left in BB, call or fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what do YOU do?

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably go get myself a beer from the fridge. Start another tourney. Maybe watch some porn.

You do mean AFTER I call and lose, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm completely out of beer. Maybe that's the problem [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Usually in comparing my intuition to post-icm analysis, I find four or five "shoulda"s for every "shouldn'ta"s.

This one sure smelled like a "probably live, let it rip", but with the blinds as big as they were, despite Pooh on my left, I was only a double-up away from regaining a smidge of FE. I decided to fold, looking for a better push/call in the next couple hands.

Anyway, running this through the handy-dandy tool returned some surprising numbers IMO.

It didn't become even marginally call'able until his range expanded to 75%. With his general passive open-aggressiveness (can there BE more "g"s and "s"s in that word?), his range was much much tighter - providing a rediculously bad $EV.

So...yeah, exciting stuff [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: ($27) - 1.5bb\'s left in BB, call or fold
 

Man I'm really not sure on this. The first thing I was thinking was that he must have a stronger than average hand, because he knows your pot committed. You're certainly going to call, so why would be raising shitty cards?

But wtf is the min raise for? If his hand were really strong he'd just push to make sure he gets HU with you. The min-raise looks to me like he wants SB to come along and try to bust you. Unless you think this guy might try to get tricky and go for a two-for-one deal on busting blinds (which isn't likely to happen as SB will fold a huge range of hands), you're almost certainly not against a big pair.

I think you're not looking at a big hand here...probably like KJo, T9s, something like that. Something that's a favorite vs a random hand, but would want the SB to join in the fun of busting you. In that case you're only like a 2-1 dog or something like that.

I dunno, this is tough. 75o is like a top 80% hand, but suited it's like 55% or something. So make it sooooted and it's a mad easy call. Here I think that since PPs are not likely to be in his range, you can go ahead and call and be a 2-1 dog going in.

Re: ($27) - 1.5bb\'s left in BB, call or fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what do YOU do?

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably go get myself a beer from the fridge. Start another tourney. Maybe watch some porn.

You do mean AFTER I call and lose, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm completely out of beer. Maybe that's the problem [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Usually in comparing my intuition to post-icm analysis, I find four or five "shoulda"s for every "shouldn'ta"s.

This one sure smelled like a "probably live, let it rip", but with the blinds as big as they were, despite Pooh on my left, I was only a double-up away from regaining a smidge of FE. I decided to fold, looking for a better push/call in the next couple hands.

Anyway, running this through the handy-dandy tool returned some surprising numbers IMO.

It didn't become even marginally call'able until his range expanded to 75%. With his general passive open-aggressiveness (can there BE more "g"s and "s"s in that word?), his range was much much tighter - providing a rediculously bad $EV.

So...yeah, exciting stuff [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know if ICM can properly handle these situations, but I don't know nearly enough about the software to say that confidentally. But those numbers you wrote out don't seem just surprising, they seem wrong. Maybe I haven't properly wrapped my head around this concept yet though.

Re: ($27) - 1.5bb\'s left in BB, call or fold
 

It surprised me, too, but I think the key here is that hero is screwed either way. It's not that folding here is +EV, it's just a little less hugely -EV. Enough so that folding this trash and needing to double twice (or more) is more likely than winning this hand and then toughing it out.