What to do?
 

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter

Hero (t1465)
SB (t1970)
BB (t2695)
UTG (t1870)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ?

What do you do here and why?

Re: What to do?
 

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What do you do here and why?

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Push because I have two cards and I'm very likely to pick up T300?

Re: What to do?
 

No don't push. I think a typical opponent will call you here with any pair or AK-A8. Given that pushing loses money in the long run. You'll get called 25% of the time and be at best a coin flip.

Re: What to do?
 

either blind would have to be horrible to call with 33.

this is a clear push; however, i would not be pushing with 23o.

Re: What to do?
 

I push this- I'm a coinflip to most of the hands that will call and the majority of the time you pick up the blinds which is something I need to be doing with only 7BB. Plus I have enough chips to really hurt the chipleader so its not like he has a massive range he's going to be calling with.

Re: What to do?
 

This isn't a poker question, it's a math question. Rob the key point is that someone will pick up a pair behind you 11.4% of the time. At the $11s or even $33s you'll get call most of those times, and you'll be toast. You'll also get called about 15% of the time by various Ax hands and will be flipping a coin. It's a fold.

Re: What to do?
 

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This isn't a poker question, it's a math question

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sure, none of the difficulty in this problem comes from figuring out what pocket pairs are going to call you. just assume they all will!

Re: What to do?
 

POOOOOOOOOOOSH.

Why? Your M is 5 and because you are 4 handed, your efective M is 2. Both blinds don't have huge stacks, so they won't call your push with two random cards.

Re: What to do?
 

OK, let's do some math. This is my first real shot at this, and I haven't taken stats in a few years. So I'll probably screw this up. Please don't hesitate to point it out and ridicule me.

I'll simplify a lot because I'm lazy. I will give the SB and BB each a super-loose range. AA-22, AK-A2, KQ-K9, QJ-Q9, JT-J9, T9 is what they will call with regardless of suitedness. This is about 33% of all hands (I think). So, at least one will pick up a hand in this range (and thus call you) 44% of the time.

So, 56% of the time you win T300 because both of them fold. T300*.56 = +T168.

37% of the time you are called by one opponent (but not the other):

Of this 37%, about 17% of the time you're up against a better pocket pair, and you're a 4.5:1 dog. 82% of the time you lose T1465. 18% of the time you win T1605. (Edit: I suck) This is roughly -T912 * .17 * .37 = -T57.

The other 83% of the times you get called by just one opponent, you'll be a coinflip or so. For simplicity's sake, I'll just say you'll be a 52/48 favorite. 48% of the time you lose T1465. 52% of the time you win T1605. (Edit: I suck) T129 * .83 * .37 = +T39


7% of the time, they will both call you. Let's just assume you're crushed here, and that you have a 15% shot at winning T4395 (edit: I suck), but you'll lose T1465 85% of the time. -T541 * .07 = -T41.

Added up, it seems that pushing here is about +T109 (edit: I suck) in chipEV. This isn't a tiny edge. Though it isn't quite 10% of your stack...it still seems too big to pass up.


Also, at the $33s, their range is nowhere near this loose, and you're going to win the blinds a lot more than 56% of the time. This augments your stack by more than 20%. If you actually do get called, you're still likely to be in a coinflip. If you win this coinflip, you will have a very, very good shot at first with almost 40% of the chips in play. If you run into an overpair, suck out.

Edit: I'm really interested now in what SNGPT would say about this (if it can do this for two opponents, I don't know at all). Its $EV analysis is likely better than my hastily-done-while-bored-at-work-chipEV calculations.

Re: What to do?
 

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Math

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I'm not going to check your calcs but yeah this is why you should be pushing here, its +EV even considering someone picks up a higher PP (and honestly there's a good chance 33-66 folds. You can't be seeing monsters in the closet all the time.