Re: The best odds for/against god
 

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"If you believe in God and are right you get heaven. If you are wrong you get dirt.
If you don't believe in God and are right you get dirt.
If you don't believe in God and are wrong you get hell.

Clearly +EV to believe in God."

-Kathleenstand-

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If you believe in the Christian God and Islam happens to be the true word of the faith, I have one thing to say to you:

"Hello and Good Luck!"

Re: The best odds for/against god
 

Basing your belief in the (non)existance of God on EV will surely land you in the fiery pits of hell.

Re: The best odds for/against god
 

Sklansky says the odds against G-d are really bad. Sklansky knows his math and odds pretty damn well. Case closed.

Belief in God is -EV
 

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this is just to elaborate on the following arguments

"If you believe in God and are right you get heaven. If you are wrong you get dirt.
If you don't believe in God and are right you get dirt.
If you don't believe in God and are wrong you get hell.

Clearly +EV to believe in God."


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I have thought about this for a long time, it's pascal's wager, right? If so, the Pascal is skewing the logic, IMHO. The question needs to address the value of life on earth with and without a god. Also, consider that just believing in God is usually not enough. The religions I am familiar with are very rigorous. Church one or more times a week and numerous examples of self-deprivation are necessary.

So...

If there is no God, then life on earth is all that you have, or it is of infinite value, in other words we would say without a god then life on earth has a value of +infinity. If there is a god, then your life on earth will be worth less, but still has value, although finite. We can refer to this value as "x". If there is no God, then your life after death is worth zero. If there is a god, then your life after death will be worth either +infinity (b/c you go to heaven) or -infinity (b/c) you go to hell.

No god.

Sacrafice portions of life and get no return. As we say our life is all we have we assign it a value of infinity. Now lets say we devote 1/15'th of our waking hours believing in god, and depriving ourselves of things. We lose -1/15infinity and get 0. Our net loss is -1/15infinity. Anyone know what 1/15 of +infinity is? I would say that:

1/15 of +infinity = +infinity. For instance if you walk forever, when will you get there? Never. When will you get half way there? Again, never. You will never get there so 1/2 of forever has to equal forever. What this means is that if we believe in god wrongly, the value we lose is infinite!

Now we accept that there is a god, a hell and a heaven.

To get to heaven, we spend (or lose) 1/15 of our waking hours believing and depriving (or lose -1/15x), and expect to receive heaven (+infinity). If we do not, then we gain 1/15x of waking time and receive hell (-infinity). Comparing the two means, that

-1/15x for +infinity; and

+1/15x for -infinity.

This means the choices we have are:

There is actually no god, but we choose to beleive just in case: we spend -infinity for a return of 0.

There is a god:

We either spend 1/15x for a return of +infinity, or we gain 1/15x for a return of -infinity.


With what I believe are the correct assumptions, belief in god has -EV if there is even the remotest of possibilities that god does not exist. This is because without a god, the value of life on earth is much greater than Pascal gave it credit for.

Re: Belief in God is -EV
 

I was more interested in other aspects of what would need to be considered that I had discussed in the original post, but this is indeed one small part of it i agree.

Even so, i think that there are flaws in your agrument.

(this is only applicable when considering a specific religion so Christianity will be considered for instance)

most people i think would not agree that value of time alive is +infinity especially when comparing that with the +infinity or -infinity of an eternity in heaven or hell.

also i would think that time spent at worship is probably more applicable when odds of a specific god existing are given then you're 1/15x is applied which i believe would only harm the odds for believing and practicing a specific religion. This is only true though if you consider value of life on earth as zero or x and not +infinite. otherwise it would be possible for it to negatively affect the odds against believing.

I would put the value at 0 or x (rather than +infinity), not quite sure which one, but is essentially inconsequential as you showed

this does have an impact on the odds but i think much less because of these reasons and certainly cannot purely give you a certain decision as i believe you meant by..

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With what I believe are the correct assumptions, belief in god has -EV if there is even the remotest of possibilities that god does not exist.

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I'm still curious as to the reason why i can't get around (or if u can get around) (or if you have to get around) what i said i had trouble with in the original post, but thank you for all of your input

Re: Belief in God is -EV
 

The Flaw in Pascal's Wager:
The possibility of a god that hates Christianity, and will punish you for eternity for believing in Christianity, making the cons of believing in God -infinity EV to counteract the +infinity EV you get from heaven.

Re: The best odds for/against god
 

It's not the a case of taking a gamble. If the claims of a religion in question ring true time and time again then it could be more favoured, right?

Re: The best odds for/against god
 

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It's not the a case of taking a gamble. If the claims of a religion in question ring true time and time again then it could be more favoured, right?

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I believe that the chances of a religion being true go far beyond the legitimacy of its claims and into the mathmatical and scientific probabilities that its foundations are possible.

all possible truths must be considered which does not seem good for any specific religion regardless of how many details that might hint at but not prove its foundation are verified as true or its position and acceptability in our world.

A religion could be more favored over another becuase of the quantity of its claims being proven true, but i don't believe that this would be a significant difference.

after considering all possibilities i think it's clear that no specific existing earthly religion can be placed at nearly high enough odds to give it serious consideration, but that's because i don't put high odds on christianity being true for example, as opposed to a more general belief.

Re: The best odds for/against god
 

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finite chance * infinite upside = finite chance * infinite downside whatever the relative magnitudes of the finite chances.


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Why do you view outcomes post-mortem as infinite ranges of numbers? Are they not singular outcomes, either a good or a bad?

Re: The best odds for/against god
 

which mathmatical and scientific probabilities are you refering to?

Don't look at an earthly religion then, don't look at the claims of Christianity if you've allready barred it as an option. What do you have to say about God, God to me is an obvious option and one thats foundations are not only possible but a neccessity for life to exist.