Two Plus Two Older Archives - Screwed up Bellagio 3k Bubble

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- - Screwed up Bellagio 3k Bubble (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=394024)

Re: Screwed up Bellagio 3k Bubble

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i don't think anyone is arguing that he should play for first. but you dont do that by ignoring the bubble. I'm just saying it should be included in his thinking (and it was) when he has a decision to make.

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The 4K difference between 1/3 of 2nd table and 2nd table is a factor. However, hero's expectation is probably about 60K if he doubles up, 25K if he didn't play the hand, and 15K if he folded. I just don't think it is that big a factor.

Re: Screwed up Bellagio 3k Bubble

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i don't think anyone is arguing that he should play for first. but you dont do that by ignoring the bubble. I'm just saying it should be included in his thinking (and it was) when he has a decision to make.

[/ QUOTE ]

The 4K difference between 1/3 of 2nd table and 2nd table is a factor. However, hero's expectation is probably about 60K if he doubles up, 25K if he didn't play the hand, and 15K if he folded. I just don't think it is that big a factor.

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You think doubling more than doubles his EV?

Re: Screwed up Bellagio 3k Bubble

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i don't think anyone is arguing that he should play for first. but you dont do that by ignoring the bubble. I'm just saying it should be included in his thinking (and it was) when he has a decision to make.

[/ QUOTE ]

The 4K difference between 1/3 of 2nd table and 2nd table is a factor. However, hero's expectation is probably about 60K if he doubles up, 25K if he didn't play the hand, and 15K if he folded. I just don't think it is that big a factor.

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You think doubling more than doubles his EV?

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Doubling up more than doubles his chip count with blinds, antes, and the short stack allin. Plus it puts him in like 5th place with a good shot at the real prizes. He should have an advantage with a fairly big stack on the final table bubble.

Yeh, at this point, I think gambling to double up is advantageous. I usually look for a chance to create a big confrontation and double up or bust at this stage of a tournament.