A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

party PL 1000

i have 1500, villian has 950.

i raise with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], to $35 from UTG+1 after a fold.

all fold to BB who calls.

flop: K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Check, I bet $75, villian raises the pot to $300 straight.

no read on villian. whats your play?

thanks,

fsuplayer

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

provide some thoughts as well as voting if you could. I want to hear some lines and ranges of hands for villian.

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

Well let's see - I think calling, getting a discount out of the BB he could have a wide range of hands.

QJ, TT, 99 of course

KT, KQ, KJ, AK, T9

Maybe even a lower heart draw.

I like pushing but I highly doubt you will get called unless way behind.

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

My biggest consideration is the dead money in the pot. Pre-flop it is $75. Next I bet $75 on the flop and get raised to $300 ... or $225 more making the pot size $375 with me to call $225 and a payoff of $615.

The range of hands I put my opponant on are:

AA, KK, TT, 99, QJ [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] QJx ... leaving me behind by about 60-40 on average and:

87 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] AKx, KQx, XX [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ... giving me the advantage.

I figure that I'm more then likely behind and with the dead money in the pot being small, and me having about 7% of my entire stack involved ... I'm going to opt to fold. The $300 raise looks committing to me. I'm not going to blow him off this pot and it will be 840 to win 990 at this point. Not the overlay I'm looking for.

A call and a fold if you miss the heart on the turn looks attractive though, but you are practicaly forced to call again if a Q, J, A, or K should fall.

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
My biggest consideration is the dead money in the pot. Pre-flop it is $75. Next I bet $75 on the flop and get raised to $300 ... or $225 more making the pot size $375 with me to call $225 and a payoff of $615.

The range of hands I put my opponant on are:

AA, KK, TT, 99, QJ [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] QJx ... leaving me behind by about 60-40 on average and:

87 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] AKx, KQx, XX [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ... giving me the advantage.

I figure that I'm more then likely behind and with the dead money in the pot being small, and me having about 7% of my entire stack involved ... I'm going to opt to fold. The $300 raise looks committing to me. I'm not going to blow him off this pot and it will be 840 to win 990 at this point. Not the overlay I'm looking for.

A call and a fold if you miss the heart on the turn looks attractive though, but you are practicaly forced to call again if a Q, J, A, or K should fall.

[/ QUOTE ]

So this is never a bluff?

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

Many of the players are so LAG that it's entirely possible that you already have the best hand here, and you have a draw to the nuts if you're behind. Your ace and king outs will also be live sometimes against hands like T9s which puts you at about even money to win. I think you have too much of a hand to fold here, but just calling sucks since you're out of position [edit: this is incorrect, but I'm too lazy to fix it]. Your opponent may be semi-bluffing with 87s and take a free card on the turn, if you spike a king you may not win anymore against T9s, etc. So I voted to push. Pushing also puts a lot of pressure on your opponent if they happen to also have AK -- they either fold their half of a split pot, or you get your money in while freerolling. Also pushing has some meta-game value if it causes some of your opponents to misjudge you/perceive you as being too aggressive with one pair hands.

I do think the decision is close though, and I'm interested in what other people have to say.

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

Of course it can be a bluff. Original poster specified no read on opponant. Barring any other information, I'm going to assume my opponant is competent. At this point, your basicaly fighting over $340 in strange money and you'll have to put in another $840 to realize that.

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
Of course it can be a bluff. Original poster specified no read on opponant. Barring any other information, I'm going to assume my opponant is competent.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whoa whoa whoa he said this was a partypoker hand...!

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

If that's the case, then you opponant has 6s6h and the turn and river are sure to be 8h 7h

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

I think this is an easy push. Too many cards can kill your action on the turn. If you call and fail to improve you're going to really be in a tough spot facing a big bet with top pair (which might be good BTW). If this is 6 handed then I think villain can have a lot of hands. KQ,KT,T9,TT,99,89,JQ. Your only a big dog to a set, but I think this is a spot where you just have to be willing to take it down right now, or what the hell gamble.

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

this was a full game DOTT, I forgot to mention that.

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

Let's examine the situation for a minute.

First of all, giving BB the benefit of the doubt I don't think he will call a raise OOP with QJ. So what is his range of hands here? The 3 most likely hands are to be AK, TT, and 99, with an outside chance of AA and KK. If he has a set you are more than a 2-1 dog. If he has AK you are obviously in great shape but I don't think he would opt to go for the check-raise with just TPTK on a board like that. If he has you beat then you are pretty much drawing to a flush and he could have re-draws. I know it's tough but I think you have to fold here, getting incorrect odds to draw to the flush. Also keep in mind that if he has a set and a heart drops on the turn after you call, he could easily put you on your exact hand and fold his set.

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

QJ is less likely, but there are more combos of it, and most okay playing NL players wont fold QJs here, well some wont anyways, and since i dont have a read, I wouldnt completely disregard that as a possibility.

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

Well if we add QJ to the range of his holdings doesn't that only strengthen the argument for folding? QJ leaves you with 8 or 9 outs depending on if he has a heart.

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

Sorry, but against a player who's put in a third of his stack on a check-raise against a UTG+1 raise on a K high board, I assume two pair at worse-call and get your stack in if you hit an ace or a flush on the turn. Even if he has a set or straight you'll have 13 outs, and if you don't hit two pair or a flush muck the turn.

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
Even if he has a set or straight you'll have 13 outs

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I'm sorry, I might be a bit slow. How does Hero have 13 outs against a set or a straight?

- Kripke

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Even if he has a set or straight you'll have 13 outs

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I'm sorry, I might be a bit slow. How does Hero have 13 outs against a set or a straight?

- Kripke

[/ QUOTE ]

If as the above poster described Hero hits an A on the turn, he now has two A outs, two K outs, and the remaining nine heart outs against the set. I think that's what he was getting at.

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

well the poll is overwhelmingly in favor of a reraise all in, yet the responses (which have been good, ty) are more split in their decision.

hopefully Jason, turnip, bruiser and a couple of others can give their thoughts.

thanks so far.

fsuplayer

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

do you have any folding equity on a raise all in? i don't think so, except maybe against a specific player you do. they seem pretty strong to me, i'd acll the flop hope to hit something, and then play for stacks. if no hit on the turn then fold and save yourself some money by not going all in on the flop. if there is doubt though and he might fold to an all in or maybe be doing something crazy with a pair and a straight draw then all in flop. my guess is that if you go all in on flop then youa re getting all your money in with worst of it.

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

i call for the same reasons. i would check the turn no matter what comes -- if you hit the heart or an ace, you can checkraise all-in.

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
i call for the same reasons. i would check the turn no matter what comes -- if you hit the heart or an ace, you can checkraise all-in

[/ QUOTE ]

I act last.

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

good point. d'oh. if the turn blanks you have to fold, but if a heart or an ace falls, bet or raise. i'd put your opponent on 2 pair or a big draw of some sort. his raise seems to be a "get out of here" raise rather than a "call my nuts" raise.

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

You've convinced me that a call/fold line on the turn is probably best. Added benefit is that a cold call with position might give the villian cold feet on pulling the trigger again and they may chicken out on any move they were planning, or mistakingly think they can get a double play from you, or induce a call on the river by being too tricky on the turn -- giving you of course a very very dangerous free river card.

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
or $225 more making the pot size $375 with me to call $225 and a payoff of $615.

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your math is off. my original post was off $10 pf, but the pot is more like $85 preflop, my $75 plus his call=$235. then he raises whats in the pot, making the pot $470, with $235 left to call, and he has like $600 left to bet.

assuming i call and hit a flush and take his stack, i have flop pot odds of 4.55 to 1, but sometimes I wont take his whole stack, and sometimes another A or K may be good as well. there is also a (small) chance he checks the turn after my flat call.

I think those cancel eachother out though, and I do have reasonable odds to see a turn card.

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
You've convinced me that a call/fold line on the turn is probably best.

[/ QUOTE ]

i was 5 mins too late with my (not-so) fancy math. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

Any results for this one?

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

I seriously must be terrible at PLHE, because I cannot imagine why you would not put all your money in on this flop.

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

I rather fold on the flop, then call the flop bet and fold on the turn.

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

what range do you put villain on?

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
what range do you put villain on?

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It seems like he could make this play with a wide range of hands. If people play AhKh this passively on this flop, he is probably correct to make this play with every hand. Seems like you can make a lot of money at PLHE if nobody every calls you unless they have a set.

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

i would push and wouldnt really give it a second thought. your hand is pretty good across the entire range of made hands, semi-bluffs, bluffs that an opponent can have here. granted, your opponent will have you beat a reasonable amount of the time but you have some outs when he does and i think he will have something else enough to make it worth playing. i dont like calling and planning to fold the turn at all cause a big part of the value of your hand is that its sometimes best. if you call you put yourself in a spot where its just much to easy to make a wrong decision later on. im struggling a bit to come up with a better justification but i think what it comes down to is that your really only in bad shape against a pretty narrow range of hands and my experience is that most peoples range of hands isnt that narrow.

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

on the flop, there's 450 in the middle and hero has to call 225 more. villian has 615 left, meaning we're getting 1065:225 or 4.7:1. hero has 12 outs to the nuts so on the surface it looks like call flop/folding the turn should be ok.

to me, all this says is that you cannot fold unless you are very sure villian will not pay off, it's either call or raise. you are 1.5:1 against a set and around 1.75:1 against the straight. factor in the times he is losing (9T,AKo) and pushing (risking 840 to win 950) can't be that big a mistake.

another thing to consider is he knows you are unlikely to have QJ here but he could very well have it. against most 2+2ers he has a lot of folding equity in this spot over your possible range of hands. so I wouldn't rule out a bluff/semibluff.

--turnipmonster

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
i would push and wouldnt really give it a second thought. your hand is pretty good across the entire range of made hands, semi-bluffs, bluffs that an opponent can have here. granted, your opponent will have you beat a reasonable amount of the time but you have some outs when he does and i think he will have something else enough to make it worth playing. i dont like calling and planning to fold the turn at all cause a big part of the value of your hand is that its sometimes best. if you call you put yourself in a spot where its just much to easy to make a wrong decision later on. im struggling a bit to come up with a better justification but i think what it comes down to is that your really only in bad shape against a pretty narrow range of hands and my experience is that most peoples range of hands isnt that narrow.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with every word of this post.

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
on the flop, there's 450 in the middle and hero has to call 225 more. villian has 615 left, meaning we're getting 1065:225 or 4.7:1. hero has 12 outs to the nuts so on the surface it looks like call flop/folding the turn should be ok.

to me, all this says is that you cannot fold unless you are very sure villian will not pay off, it's either call or raise. you are 1.5:1 against a set and around 1.75:1 against the straight. factor in the times he is losing (9T,AKo) and pushing (risking 840 to win 950) can't be that big a mistake.

another thing to consider is he knows you are unlikely to have QJ here but he could very well have it. against most 2+2ers he has a lot of folding equity in this spot over your possible range of hands. so I wouldn't rule out a bluff/semibluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

You know your stuff. Thank you.

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
hero has 12 outs to the nuts

[/ QUOTE ]

i have 12-14 outs to beat two pair, but only 9 outs to the nuts.

so the math does come a little closer.

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

How often do people think we are ahead on the flop? The answer certainly isn't zero.

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

Personally I'd imagine you are ahead about 30-35% of the time.

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

sorry my mistake. I counted a gutshot for unknown reasons. probably not too far off if aces and kings are partial outs though.

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

I'm in favor of calling the flop here, simply because I don't believe there is any fold equity in an all-in. The only way he's folding with this much money already in the pot is if he is bluffing.

There's a chance the guy has a set, in which case you probably have the implied odds to draw to your flush. However, in response to the posts above about waiting for an ace, an ace could be the worst possible card for you. If he has a set, and you hit your trips aces on the turn, you're meat.

I call, and muck the turn if I miss my flush.

Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
 

Correction: I thought the flop brought an ace. Disregard my comment about the trips aces.