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-   -   (11) - AQ , call this push? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=372245)

Hendricks433 11-05-2005 01:57 AM

(11) - AQ , call this push?
 
Do you call this Limp push from UTG Shorty?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (7 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

MP1 (t2490)
MP2 (t1350)
Hero (t730)
Button (t665)
SB (t1250)
BB (t1040)
UTG (t475)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
[color=#666666]1 fold</font>, UTG calls t30, [color=#666666]2 folds</font>, [color=#CC3333]Hero raises to t90</font>, [color=#666666]2 folds</font>,UTG Pushes, Hero.....?

1C5 11-05-2005 01:57 AM

Re: (11) - AQ , call this push?
 
Nope.

AK and I would most likely.

DDH 11-05-2005 02:15 AM

Re: (11) - AQ , call this push?
 
This early, I fold with very little regret.

RobGW 11-05-2005 02:25 AM

Re: (11) - AQ , call this push?
 
I'd call. You only need to win 38% to break even. I'm assuming villian is not that good since he's already lost half his chips on level 2 unless he got sucked out on or something like that. So he could be pushing a lot here. Especially at the $11 where nothing surprises me anymore. You're probably 45% to win and maybe even dominating him. Yeah sometimes he'll catch you with AK, AA-QQ but on average I'd call this.

11-05-2005 02:50 AM

Re: (11) - AQ , call this push?
 
Nope.

This REEKS of AA.

jeffraider 11-05-2005 04:13 AM

Re: (11) - AQ , call this push?
 
That raise to 90 is no good! it's gotta be more.

SonnyJay 11-05-2005 11:21 AM

Re: (11) - AQ , call this push?
 
Fold ICM: .0893
Call &amp; Win ICM: .1638
Call &amp; Lose ICM: .0374

.0893= x(.1638) + (1-x)(.0374)
.0893-.0374= .1638x-.0374x
.0519= .1264x
x= .41

Technically 41%, but you're pretty close. I think you'll be 41% here fairly frequently against his hand ranges.

This being said, I think you may want to wait because I feel that you may be able to better use your stack on the bubble at an $11. I'm personally not taking the risk this early in a low buyin tournament. The math seems to justify it, but it does not take into account the ability to use a stack later, which may outweigh the gain in this call. It's close though.

-SonnyJay


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