Fold A high on pretty flop, 5/10
 

Edit: Opponent is 15/12/3.5 over 100 hands

My thought process: only thing I'm ahead of here for a pre-flop 3-bet is KQ, maybe QJs...

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 5 BB

Re: Fold A high on pretty flop, 5/10
 

Any note on how he responds to steals from the SB?

Re: Fold A high on pretty flop, 5/10
 

No notes since he has been playing very few hands and always aggressively...I think my stats on him are mostly from datamining.

Re: Fold A high on pretty flop, 5/10
 

I'm a long-time lurker and I'd just like to thank all the posters here for helping me improve my game tremendously. Something I don't think happens enough on this forum, however, is looking at situations mathematitcally, especially ones like this one where the ranges are defined and there is only one card to come.

Even in a situation like this one, where if we are sure villain won't lay down the best hand calling down is quite clearly wrong, I think its useful to see how the numbers play out. I also think it would be useful to show how big his range would have to be in order for calling down to be +EV = 0.

15/12 is prett tight. If we take his 3betting range to be AT+, 77+, KQ, and KJs:

_______________#of Combos___# of Outs
A. AK,AQ,AJ____36___________3
B. 77,99, AA___9____________0
c. 66,88_______12___________6
D. TT,JJ,QQ,KK_24___________3
E. AT__________6____________Tied
F. KhQh/KhJh___2____________14 outs against (flush draw)
G. KQ/Kjs______18___________6 outs against

Total Combos: 107
Cost of Calling Down: 2BB
Payoff if when we win: 5BB in pot now + another BB on river = 6BB*
*Good approximation, since if we hit our Ace he will check call the river, and if we hit our ten and it is actually an out is doubtful he will payoff more than that.

EV of Calling Down =
A. (36/107)[(43/46)(-2BB) + (3/46)(6BB)]
B. (9/107)[(-2BB)]
C. (12/107)[(40/46)(-2BB) + (6/46)(6BB)]
D. (24/107)[(43/46)(-2BB) + (3/46)(6BB)]
E. (6/107)[2BB]
F. (2/107)[(14/46)(-2BB)+(32/46)(6BB)]
G. (18/107)[(6/46)(-2BB)+(40/46)(6BB)]

= -0.09BB
no flush draw = -0.066BB
no KJs = -0.274BB

Adding only KJo to his range makes our calldown enormously profitable: +0.417BB.
The calldown is EV neutral if he 3bets KJo as little as 1/6 of the time.

So in summary, the +EV of this calldown depends very heavily on the combos that you are ahead of. If the TAG is 3betting A8o and A7s type hands and following through with them on the turn then calling down is a must. If you suspect he's 3betting QJs, you really should be calling down.

Let me know if you guys think this type of analysis is useful, or if you think that i'm just wasting everybody's time.

Re: Fold A high on pretty flop, 5/10
 

I forgot to add one thing. If your opponent does not bet his UI AK-AJ on the river, then you can get to showdown much cheaper, since those hands make up such a significant part of his range. If we estimate that in those situations he will only bet the river 50% of the time or so the call down becomes +EV, even without adding combos of KJo:

EV of Calling Down =
A. (36/107)[(43/46)(-1.5BB) + (3/46)(6BB)]
B. (9/107)[(-2BB)]
C. (12/107)[(40/46)(-2BB) + (6/46)(6BB)]
D. (24/107)[(43/46)(-2BB) + (3/46)(6BB)]
E. (6/107)[2BB]
F. (2/107)[(14/46)(-2BB)+(32/46)(6BB)]
G. (18/107)[(6/46)(-2BB)+(40/46)(6BB)]

= +0.065BB

Finally, taking hands like ATo to showdown will discourage him to take shots at you in the future. So, I've convinced myself that calling down in this situation is best. One thing to note of course, this might change the expected payoff from the KJ/KQ hands, though he may likely fire one more bullet to try and get you to lay down ace hi.

Re: Fold A high on pretty flop, 5/10
 

I dont mind taking this to showdown

Re: Fold A high on pretty flop, 5/10
 

[ QUOTE ]
I dont mind taking this to showdown

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree, he seems like he likes fighting...when he 3bets your SB raise your hand her is huge, IMO.

Re: Fold A high on pretty flop, 5/10
 

[ QUOTE ]
I dont mind taking this to showdown

[/ QUOTE ]

If this guy was 25% VP$IP instead of 15% I'd probably agree.

I'm not so sure with such a tighty. Someone this tight, sans other reads, I peg as a pansy who doesn't fight for his blinds too strongly and give him credit after his turn bet.

I still call the flop for value and because he might check behind the turn.