$11 AKs Against Paired Board
 

Any comments welcome.

1) Do you lead this flop?

2) Looking back that turn bet seems really small, but I had no idea where I was in the hand. The call is questionable too looking back, but at the time I figured if he had a nine and I hit the flush, I had big implied odds. How bad was that?

3) No real reads. Any thoughts on villain's range of hands given pf call and turn raise?

4) K comes on the river. You call 300?

Thanks for any comments.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (9 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP3 (t285)
CO (t1930)
Button (t2340)
SB (t1385)
BB (t1755)
UTG (t1455)
UTG+1 (t1105)
Hero (t1655)
MP2 (t1590)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t150</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, BB calls t100.

Flop: (t325) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: (t325) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t100</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t250</font>, Hero calls t150.

River: (t825) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets t300</font>, Hero ???

Re: $11 AKs Against Paired Board
 

I bet the the flop, don't bet the turn(especially not so weakly), call the raise, call the river bet debating whether or not to raise. I'd put him on 55-88, maybe big clubs, maybe TT or JJ. I think you're good here a huge percentage of the time.

Re: $11 AKs Against Paired Board
 

[ QUOTE ]
but I had no idea where I was in the hand

[/ QUOTE ]

There are times when it might be prudent to not c-bet. This isn't one of them. A paired board is the next best thing to hitting your hand &amp; you are HU vs. a blind caller.

Lead this flop. Considering your flush draw, you don't have to come close to pot'ing it...t200 will do.
With a call, I would check behind on the turn unimproved.

There are a number of problems with not leading the flop, subsequently weak leading the turn.

This river I call. Too hard to put a 9 in his hand calling your PF raise. A 9 is also unlikely to check again on the turn with your disinterest on the flop + the flush draw. You are WAY ahead of villian's range here. He merely took an opportunity handed to him on the turn to represent the 9.

Re: $11 AKs Against Paired Board
 

My line would be to bet the flop 1/2 to 1/3 to take it down right now and/or buy the freebie on the turn. The turn is where I would take the free card.

In your spot, I call the river.

Re: $11 AKs Against Paired Board
 

[ QUOTE ]
There are times when it might be prudent to not c-bet. This isn't one of them. A paired board is the next best thing to hitting your hand &amp; you are HU vs. a blind caller.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure I agree. The flushdraw makes this a bit better. But I don't love a paired flop with AK. If the BB called with a pocket pair of any kind, he is not going to fold to a bet here. He loves this flop. The only hands you fold here are the hands you are beating anyway. AT+/KQ/KJ/etc. Hands we dominate.

Re: $11 AKs Against Paired Board
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There are times when it might be prudent to not c-bet. This isn't one of them. A paired board is the next best thing to hitting your hand &amp; you are HU vs. a blind caller.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure I agree. The flushdraw makes this a bit better. But I don't love a paired flop with AK. If the BB called with a pocket pair of any kind, he is not going to fold to a bet here. He loves this flop. The only hands you fold here are the hands you are beating anyway. AT+/KQ/KJ/etc. Hands we dominate.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't disagree. The FD certainly made this particual c-bet situation more of a value bet. Maybe 'must' is better than 'next best thing'.

You are certainly correct - more calls are made with hands that we are behind, than folds being made with the same. But for that same reason we must c-bet here to get the free river card. Certainly some will reraise our flop lead with a mid-PP on a hunch we've whiffed a strong Ace. But he also can't discredit being behind a larger PP. His mission is to get to showdown as cheap as possible (which is perfect for us as we look to improve). The only time he's NOT doing this, is when we show weakness on the flop...as hero here found out. Making a move on the turn and/or river, often taking the pot from us when we don't improve - and can't call.

Re: $11 AKs Against Paired Board
 

By not cbetting we allow a worse hand to bet us out of the hand, which is a disaster. If you check on the flop and villian leads the turn with a big bet, you're in a horrible spot. Picking up the pot on the flop is a pretty good outcome for us.

Re: $11 AKs Against Paired Board
 

Betting this flop HU is great because you can pretend you're playing limit hold 'em and steal a free river. I don't hate your turn play here but I definitely think that betting 200 is much better and I'd call the river the way you played it.

Re: $11 AKs Against Paired Board
 

Thanks for all the comments everyone. I ended up calling that river, and the guy had TT, which he mucked.