15/30 Flush... I hate folding for one more bet...
 

Great loose 15/30 game. The main villain is the reason to be in the game. He probably plays 70% of his hands and is going broke fast. He raises pre-flop with his made hands (pairs, AK and such), but limps with the rest. He also has the monstrous misfortune to be two seats to my right [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. Villain is aggressive and tricky.

Can I possibly be good here 1 in 11.5 times?

Garland

Paradise Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Garland is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP1 calls, Garland calls, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Garland raises</font>, CO folds, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (4.5 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Garland bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Garland 3-bets</font>, MP1 calls.

River: (10.5 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Garland ????

Re: 15/30 Flush... I hate folding for one more bet...
 

"Villain is aggressive and tricky."

I guess that means you have to call.

Re: 15/30 Flush... I hate folding for one more bet...
 

[ QUOTE ]
"Villain is aggressive and tricky."

I guess that means you have to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree with this. I think folding is best here, it's lame, but if I'm playing well I'd fold this river.

If the villain is aggressive and tricky he's also probably at least fairly good. He knows you will check behind here most of the time so he's betting to insure you don't. He also knows almost everyone pays him off here and that people will crying call this all the time. Come on, this guy isn't trying some 18th level thinking river bluff.

Re: 15/30 Flush... I hate folding for one more bet...
 

What hand do you think he has that plays this way? He's boated up or has your flush beat. I think you can make this fold correctly on the river

Results and thoughts...
 

I folded. I felt I'm going to be shown a 9 every single time. Just wanted to make sure a crying call wasn't warranted.

Thanks for the comments.

Garland

Re: Results and thoughts...
 

I don't think I make that fold.

Re: 15/30 Flush... I hate folding for one more bet...
 

Against typical players it's a fold, but I'm guessing a tricky/aggressive opponent might play a bare Ace
[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] this way.

Re: 15/30 Flush... I hate folding for one more bet...
 

Seems pretty simple. He's playing 70% of his hands, and he's aggressive and tricky. Call.

There are a million ways for him to reach the river without a 9 or 5 and bet. He could have any single heart and missed his "draw". He could have tons of made hands weaker than yours and is betting because he intends to call. He could have some other nonsensical thought that people that play 70% of their hands tend to have.

His hand range is wide, he's aggressive, and you are getting good odds. Don't fold.

-eric

Re: 15/30 Flush... I hate folding for one more bet...
 

[ QUOTE ]
and he's aggressive and tricky.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi elindauer,

I guess I should have redefined "tricky". He won't check-raise without some sort of made hand. In this case, I had to call the check-raise as I felt it was just as likely he's doing it on two pair as the straight.

Paradise Poker 15/30 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Garland is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Garland raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (12.66 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Garland raises</font>, BB folds, UTG folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (9.33 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP2 checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Garland bets</font>, MP2 calls, CO folds.

River: (11.33 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Garland bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, Garland calls.

Final Pot: 15.33 BB

Results below:
MP2 has 7s Js (straight, king high).
Garland has Qs Qc (three of a kind, queens).
Outcome: MP2 wins 15.33 BB

That kind of tricky. He will chase all sorts of draws and bet on the flop once, but shut down afterwards.

Thanks for your thoughts.

Garland

Re: 15/30 Flush... I hate folding for one more bet...
 

Yeah, there's no way I'd ever fold this hand to this guy. You'd have to pry the cards out of my cold dead fingers.