Is Acey Duecy a +EV game
 

I am assuming most people here know the rules of the game. If not, just ask and I will explain.

Anyway, I used to play the game before I began using a math approach to gambling, and lost my ass, and quit playing. Nowdays, I have been thinking about it again, and it seems like it should be very easy to figure when any bet you make has a +EV. The only part I am confused about is the times when you would have to double your bet if you get the same card again.

Would someone who is math oriented and familiar with this game be able to help me with a basic approach to playing this game with a +EV?

Thanks

Re: Is Acey Duecy a +EV game
 

I think rules can differ a little bit depending on the game. Also, use a little bit of card counting and you should be able to crush the game.

Can you give me your exact rules?

Re: Is Acey Duecy a +EV game
 

You flip over 2 cards, let's say its
3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. You make a bet based on whether you think the third card will be between a 3 and King. If it is, you win the bet. If it's an Ace or 2, you lose the bet. If it's a 3 or King, you pay DOUBLE the bet.

Re: Is Acey Duecy a +EV game
 

Count the number of cards that win your bet. W
Count the number of cards that lose your bet. L
Count the number of cards that hit the rail. R
Count the total number of cards. T

You win 1 bet W/T of the time.
You lose 1 bet L/T of the time.
You lose 2 bets R/T of the time.

You have a neutral bet when W/T = L/T + 2R/T

So, when the number of winning cards is more than the number of losing cards plus the twice number of rail cards, make the maximum bet possible.

When the number of winning cards is less than the number of losing cards plus twice the number of rail cards, make the minimum bet possible.

In a fresh deck, there are 6 rail cards and 50 total cards. A little substitution gives you 2W = T + R, so you need 28 winning cards to break even. This corresponds to a 7-gap between the rails (3-J). So, the only profitable bets (in a fresh deck) are 2-J, 2-Q, 2-K, 2-A, 3-Q, 3-K, 3-A, 4-K, 4-A, and 5-A.

Overall, the game is only +EV if you make the above calculations better than your opponents do.

PP