Question about probabilities
 

I was sitting under the gun with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] with 5 players having invested 20$ each in a $100 pot. The flop comes 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

SB bets $30, BB Raises $200 and is the type of player who would have atleast AQ do bet that much.

A.) What do I do?
B.) What if I know BB has Q4?
C.) What are the pertinent odds to be considered?
D.) What's the best book or online resource to get this learn more about this?

Thanks,
Kang

Re: Question about probabilities
 

Your hand is fairly strong on this board. You have outs to the nut flush and also to 2-pair or trips. You didn't mention stack sizes but you should probably go all-in. You will usually be a slight favorite even when called.

Poker odds:
http://www.texasholdem-poker.com/odds_chart.php
http://www.pokerupdate.com/pokerodds.htm

Re: Question about probabilities
 

just my two cents,
A) in some cases I might raise for value. Folding seems like a very weak line and calling gives you nothing new to work off of on the turn. To me you have a hand good enough to take a stand with. Anyone agree with my thinking here? BTW, how large were the stacks involved?

B) if you KNEW he had Q4, youd be about a 45% to win this hand. With that in mind, you might as well call since you are basically 50/50 to win and the dead money covers any % you are behind. Besides, if you know he has Q4 you can see the turn and then decide from there.

C) I dont know exactly what you mean, but as for D) go to www.twodimes.net from here you can enter hand combos to find out winning %s.

Re: Question about probabilities
 

Stack sizes would be really helpful for this one. Lets say that half of the time he's got top two pair, half the time he has a set of 3s or 4s. A set would mean that you have 9 outs (ignoring the possibility of a boat), and top two would mean that you have 12 outs. With two cards to come those leave your odds of winning at almost exactly 35% and 45%, respectively. (You can find these numbers in almost any poker book.) This averages to a 40% chance of winning if you play the hand to the end. (Obviously if youre sure he has Q4, then your chances of winning are 45%.)

With exact stack sizes, we could probably break it down even further, taking into account how often a raise will make your opponent fold and whether that offsets the fact that you're an underdog in the hand. With no other information, I would lean towards a small raise here in the hopes of a free card on the turn.

Re: Question about probabilities
 

Thanks for the great responses !

As to stack sizes, I started the hand with almost exactly $900. SB had about $200, BB had probably $500 before his $200 bet. Not to string it out, this post was instigated by the fact that I was chastised for not folding, and I was curious to know the truth.

As it turned out, I just called the bet. SB said, "He must have AQ of dimaonds", I said I did, and ask the dealer if I could show it. I know I'm loosing my odds with this act, but this table is so messed up I didn't want anybody catching anything crazy on me. I know its wrong to play semi-broke but the $900 meant alot to me on this particular night.

Anyway, I turned up my hand and all the remaining players (after way too long deliberating) folded so it was just me and the $200 guy. The turn was an Ace, yea. The river a 4, giving him a boat. I agree with whats been said so far that I actually probably should have gone all in, but I just wanted to make sure I was right about at least playing with the odds. I was thinking somewhere in the neighborhood of 45%, so I feel a little better about that.

Again, thanks alot for the knowledge
Kang