Re: Family pot, PPs
 

Does anyone else find this interesting, or not really? Is this a super easy check with the low pocket pairs, or a super easy raise, or is it close? I don´t buy that it doesn´t matter, as the situation is pretty different one way or the other. I am of the opinion that raising preflop is best, possibly even with 22 (although I am less sure of doing it with 22 then with 77), although I imagine I could be swayed towards checking if someone brought up something that I am not thinking about.

I hate having to bump my own threads to get replies, but it seems like every time I post something which I find interesting/odd, and include my own reply, I turn everyone else off from replying. Is it something in the way I am posting, or is this situation just pretty boring?

Re: Family pot, PPs
 

[ QUOTE ]
Just wait for flawless_victory to answer.

[/ QUOTE ]
RAISE.

Re: Family pot, PPs
 

You dont have equity until 66 imo. I think that if you are on the button with loose players in the blinds you should raise 77 since you can take a free card on the flop for one more chance to hit frequently. If you are in the blinds I think you need 88-99.

Re: Family pot, PPs
 

[ QUOTE ]
I am of the opinion that raising preflop is best, possibly even with 22 (although I am less sure of doing it with 22 then with 77), although I imagine I could be swayed towards checking if someone brought up something that I am not thinking about.

[/ QUOTE ]

A related question is, how many limpers do you want to see to raise 22 from the BB? Or does it not matter? Say, with 3+ limpers, you're looking to hit a set, and with 1 or 2 limpers, you'll bet out on safe-looking flops thinking your 22 might be best?

Re: Family pot, PPs
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I am of the opinion that raising preflop is best, possibly even with 22 (although I am less sure of doing it with 22 then with 77), although I imagine I could be swayed towards checking if someone brought up something that I am not thinking about.

[/ QUOTE ]

A related question is, how many limpers do you want to see to raise 22 from the BB? Or does it not matter? Say, with 3+ limpers, you're looking to hit a set, and with 1 or 2 limpers, you'll bet out on safe-looking flops thinking your 22 might be best?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good question. I think I might raise 22 if I have two opponents. At 3, I am losing much of my folding equity/non set equity. But, once we reach 5 opponents or more, I am raising again. I am unsure about this stuff though.

Re: Family pot, PPs
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just wait for flawless_victory to answer.

[/ QUOTE ]
RAISE.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good enough. Thread over. Unless someone wants to go up against flawless_victory that is.

Re: Family pot, PPs
 

i once made a thread that said something along the lines of if there are 7 limpers in front of you then its correct to raise 22 from the BB. i still think thats correct but its really tough to guage the equity value of such hands postflop.

preflop equity is easy. in this hand i like raising because our preflop equity is around 21%. at 21% that means that by investing another small bet our equity gain is .26SB or .13BB! thats huge on a 1SB investment, a 26% rate of return. i dont think we can make that up postflop by checking.

im not certain whether checking preflop increases our postflop equity or not. in the past ive argued that raising preflop increases our equity but its truly close and depends on the game. i think the more aggressive the game is the more you want to raise preflop. if players are going to raise and reraise protecting their pairs then you will get paid off alot when you flop a set. if players are just calling bets then it doesnt do you much good.

because its hard to determine whether your hand has more value postflop whether you raise or check, i think in this situation raising is clear. an immediately 26% ROI is gigantic in this spot, and its very hard to make that up postflop.

the real question for me is how low would i go with pairs in this spot. i think i would raise 66 but lower than that and i check. its tough.

Re: Family pot, PPs
 

[ QUOTE ]
i once made a thread that said something along the lines of if there are 7 limpers in front of you then its correct to raise 22 from the BB. i still think thats correct but its really tough to guage the equity value of such hands postflop.

preflop equity is easy. in this hand i like raising because our preflop equity is around 21%. at 21% that means that by investing another small bet our equity gain is .26SB or .13BB! thats huge on a 1SB investment, a 26% rate of return. i dont think we can make that up postflop by checking.

im not certain whether checking preflop increases our postflop equity or not. in the past ive argued that raising preflop increases our equity but its truly close and depends on the game. i think the more aggressive the game is the more you want to raise preflop. if players are going to raise and reraise protecting their pairs then you will get paid off alot when you flop a set. if players are just calling bets then it doesnt do you much good.

because its hard to determine whether your hand has more value postflop whether you raise or check, i think in this situation raising is clear. an immediately 26% ROI is gigantic in this spot, and its very hard to make that up postflop.

the real question for me is how low would i go with pairs in this spot. i think i would raise 66 but lower than that and i check. its tough.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like your analysis, but your mention of the 26% ROI is off. Although we may have equity by raising preflop, we only realize that entire equity if we reach the river. Since fairly often we are not, we do not get all of that equity. See my above post about how much of the equity we actually have.

Re: Family pot, PPs
 

[ QUOTE ]
This means that our new equity of preflop bets is about 13%. So, when we raise preflop, we are putting in 16.6% of the money, but only retrieving about 13%. That means we have a 3.6% loss on our bet we put in. So, raising preflop has a immediate -EV of .02 BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

This calculation is wrong.

You put in an extra 1SB and the pot grows by a total of 6SB. Your expected return therefore grows by 13% of 6SB i.e. 0.78SB, but it cost you 1SB to get that, so you lose 0.22SB on the deal.

Furthermore I think people tend to make fewer or smaller mistakes in the inflated pot because their usual action of pressing the call button is closer to being correct, so I am very wary of claims that you will make up this loss postflop.

Guy.

Re: Family pot, PPs
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This means that our new equity of preflop bets is about 13%. So, when we raise preflop, we are putting in 16.6% of the money, but only retrieving about 13%. That means we have a 3.6% loss on our bet we put in. So, raising preflop has a immediate -EV of .02 BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

This calculation is wrong.

You put in an extra 1SB and the pot grows by a total of 6SB. Your expected return therefore grows by 13% of 6SB i.e. 0.78SB, but it cost you 1SB to get that, so you lose 0.22SB on the deal.

Furthermore I think people tend to make fewer or smaller mistakes in the inflated pot because their usual action of pressing the call button is closer to being correct, so I am very wary of claims that you will make up this loss postflop.

Guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are right about my [censored] math, thanks for pointing it out. As far as the "fewer mistakes in big pots", I disagree. This may be true in most instances, as their small number of outs are suddenly better in the big pot. But, when we hit a set, it is not the usual case, and people will definetly be WAY overcounting their true outs. This means that they will make far more mistakes I think.