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-   -   10/20 KK (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=405569)

SomethingClever 12-27-2005 07:36 PM

Re: 10/20 KK
 
Looks good so far. The only question is whether or not to raise the river if he fires again. I probably wouldn't. Even donkeys flop sets with JJ or have AA sometimes.

Wow SB is bad.

Edit: Just read the thread and everyone is advocating calling the 3bet. I dunno, I think we're beating this guy. But I just call the river like I said.

Munga30 12-27-2005 07:57 PM

Re: 10/20 KK
 
I think you're ahead often enough to cap given what I can come up with for a range. JJ-99, AJc, QJc, JTc, and half strength 77.

The cap collects the max from flush draws while paying the same as calling down and makes folding the river easier given the particular card and donk action.

baseline 12-27-2005 08:40 PM

Re: 10/20 KK
 
I think you played your hand perfectly untill the turn. On the turn with the sb out of the picture i don't really think you have any reason to cap it. You just have to think about all the hands that have you beat, not to mention the fact that you have no read on the villain so you have no idea if he is solid, no idea if he likes to raise suited connectors or only plays big pairs and ak that way. You can't beat 69 (unlikely holding) 9 10 (also unlikely but more possible for him to raise something like 9 10 suited and go crazy on that flop). You also can't beat any set and if he is holding any of these hands YOU ARE DRAWING ABSOLUTELY DEAD (except for to a king if he has a set). I don't think that you can throw your hand away cause there are quite a few hands you can beat. kj,qj,aj,1010,qq but even if he has something like aj clubs he has a ton of outs to smash you on the river. The only reason that i would cap in on the turn would be trying to get a free showdown in position on the river, but if he bets at that point the pot is huge and you almost have to call,(almost if you cap and he bets on river i think you are almost for surely beat, all goes back to knowing your opponent which you don't, and that makes a sticky situation).

Bottom line is that the best play is to just call on the turn after the sb is out of picture and hope to either check behind on river for free showdown or call one more bet, thus costing the same as the cap on the turn, and protecting yourself from losing one more big bet to a monster.
just my humble opinion


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