Q9s
 

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, UTG calls, MP calls, CO calls.

Turn: (9 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG folds, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Hero calls, MP calls.

River: (15 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls,

CO is 70/14 but not unreasonable postflop. MP is nambipambi, 29/20 tough TAG/LAG. I put him squarely on KQ though KJ, AK, AQ is a lesser possibility.

Krishan

Re: Q9s
 

I dont get the river call at all. I think you are good here ~0% of the time. But I need to go to sleep so I my mind might be off here.

Re: Q9s
 

yeah, put me in the "why are you calling the river" camp.

Re: Q9s
 

[ QUOTE ]

CO is 70/14 but not unreasonable postflop. MP is nambipambi, 29/20 tough TAG/LAG. I put him squarely on KQ though KJ, AK, AQ is a lesser possibility.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

that would make this a pretty bad call then no?

Re: Q9s
 

I started writing a post thinking you hit your straight on the river and evaluating overcall versus raising.

I don't like the river call. Yeah, pot is big, yada yada yada. But you described CO as not unreasonable postflop despite his willingness to see a lot of flops. Does CO raise the field on the turn with a hand that is losing to 9s Q-kicker on the river - there's not a whole lot of hands like that? Seems to me that CO's range, based on flop and turn play, needs to be narrowed pretty significantly to a range that has you in pretty bad shape (note you hold the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] so CO is not betting / raising pair + FD). Add in your reads on np's range with him to act behind, and it seems to me that calling is the least attractive of your options.

If you told me that CO is pretty nutso post-flop and could conceivably be playing 88 or a goofy FD like this, then you've got a case for raising the river to fold out an np J and then folding to np's three-bet if it comes. If CO really is reasonable post-flop, I think you're better off folding here.

Edit: Cross-posted with a bunch of others. Did a bit of math. Assuming np folds a naked J to a raise always and has KQ 40% of the time, you still need to be ahead of CO more than 20% of the time to consider a raise. I don't think you're close to 20% unless your read isn't accurate; How often do you think np folds a naked j instead of just overcalling? It would need to be pretty high given the likelihood that you're losing to CO in any event.

Re: Q9s
 

this is a flop i bet and not a river i call. i can't see us winning ever.

Re: Q9s
 

[ QUOTE ]
yeah, put me in the "why are you calling the river" camp.

[/ QUOTE ]

Alright I folded. How does the rest of the hand look? Felt standard.

Krishan

Re: Q9s
 

thats how i do it. i guess a case could be made for leading the flop too.

Re: Q9s
 

Every other street looks uber standard to little ole me.

Re: Q9s
 

other than the river.......well played....per the river - you still had the MP acting behind you - even if you had a really solid reader on the better you have a player behind.....have to fold this......100% of the time (take out MP and with an incredible read in a big pot I MIGHT find the call button - if you really were putting him on a busted straight the a RAISE is in order....)