TPTK under pressure... river decision
 

Villain is 60/10 over 40 hands.

I know i played it awkwardly, but i was pretty sure i was value betting this river... who calls on the end?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

CO ($48.05)
Button ($36.98)
SB ($128.54)
BB ($42.17)
UTG ($23.50)
Hero ($77.30)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, CO calls $2.50, Button calls $2.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($8.25) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $6</font>, CO folds, Button calls $6.

Turn: ($20.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: ($20.25) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $7</font>, Button calls $28.48 (All-In).

Final Pot: $55.73

Re: TPTK under pressure... river decision
 

This is a really easy fold.

Re: TPTK under pressure... river decision
 

it looks that way doesn't it, but what do you put villian on?

he seems to be representing a straight... which i find it nearly impossible for him to have.

Re: TPTK under pressure... river decision
 

unless the villain has made crazy river bluffs before i'd lay this down..

especially if he has a 60%VPIP and there's a 4straight on the board

Re: TPTK under pressure... river decision
 

Villain's very loose and on the button...he could easily have an 8 couldn't he? Not to mention the variations of 2 pair and what not.

In the end, you MAY have the best hand, but I don't think its worth the risk.

Re: TPTK under pressure... river decision
 

why is it impossible for him to have a straight here?

I think his worst hand range is JT or a set....his best includes something with an 8. I can see a straight checking behind on the turn. You raised preflop, so he knows you probably can't catch anything on the river that beats him and he figures if he bets his 8 on the turn you'll fold...he checks behind and he probably gets another bet out of you...then his zany overbet has you almost convinced to call.

Re: TPTK under pressure... river decision
 

im not sure he has a str8, but i am pretty sure he has u beat. he could have a wierd 2 pair combination, a horribly played set, or any 8.

why do u think an 8 is so impossible for him to have? i see A8s, K8s, J8s, 98s, 88, 78s and a couple other wierd hands being highly possible here...

Re: TPTK under pressure... river decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
it looks that way doesn't it, but what do you put villian on?

he seems to be representing a straight... which i find it nearly impossible for him to have.

[/ QUOTE ]

how is it impossible? he holds 8x, bam, there's his straight.

we already know he plays a lot of hands.

bottom line is youve got one pair facing severe aggession. there are a lot of hands out there that beat you.

Results
 

Ok i see it is possible for him to have an 8, but unlikely to me unless its J8 or 89, calling my flop bet.

Also, i think 2 pair would not make this play on the river, fearing a straight. Same goes for a set.

So the only hands i could deduce he had were a worse J or a bluff.



I called and he showed Q7 and MHIG.


P.S. I think he is folding most of the time if I make a real bet on the river and only made this play because i showed weakness.

Re: Results
 

well nh - but it just seems we're beat in this situation more times than not.