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-   -   probability to be beat here? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=327563)

danq 09-07-2005 02:30 PM

Re: probability to be beat here?
 
[ QUOTE ]
not gonna argue the math, but is it logical that there is a 71% chance someone has 8 cards of 45 cards???? somethings gotta be wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, 8 out of 45 cards are queens or sevens, and the opponents have a total of 6 cards, so the expected number of queens and sevens in their hands is 6 * 8/45 = 48/45, a little bit more than 1. This doesn't answer the question, but it does reinforce the fact that the probability is pretty high... (The 48/45 double-counts the probability of more than one queen-or-seven, which you don't care about.)

Beyond that, all I can tell you is that the math is right. (Or, to put it another way: remove seven blanks from a deck of cards, shuffle, and deal off the top six; I'll bet you two-to-one there's a queen or a seven in there, as many times as you like.)

Dan

09-11-2005 07:14 PM

Re: probability to be beat here?
 
Forget my post, my mind were playing horrible tricks on me... I was mixing up 2 point of views. And I came to very strange conclusions. Im really sorry.


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