Button steal 10/20
 

10/20 game that started off 5-handed when I sat and is now 8-handed. I've been here maybe one orbit, Villain just sat down, but is a 2+2er who eternally runs well. Effective stacks at 2000 each. Folded to Villain on the button who makes it 60, I make it 220 with 99 on the BB after SB folds. Villain pops it to 600. Looks like push or fold to me.

Re: Button steal 10/20
 

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Looks like fold to me.

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obviously.

i think reraising there w/ 99 is usually not gonna be your best play.

Re: Button steal 10/20
 

I don't want to push because I think 99 are good there. I want to push because I think he'll fold most of the time. Doesn't this look like some sort of blocking raise? If he had AA/KK, why wouldn't he just flat call my reraise and then do something on the flop? I think he folds JJ and down for sure, and possibly QQ. I'm not sure if he recognizes me as 2+2 though.

Re: Button steal 10/20
 

dude, those assumptions are not good.

Re: Button steal 10/20
 

"blocking raise"?

Given that action, and assuming he's got some 2+2 preflop shenanigans up his sleeve, his range is probably more like

75% AK/AA/KK/QQ, won't fold to push
10% AQ/JJ/TT, may fold to push
15% trash, will fold to push

You don't have a lot of fold equity here.

Re: Button steal 10/20
 

How often do you 3-raise with AA/KK over top of an unknown BB reraise? I do it almost never.

I folded of course, but I thought that maybe this could be a spot for an expert play.

Re: Button steal 10/20
 

[ QUOTE ]
I folded of course, but I thought that maybe this could be a spot for an expert play.

[/ QUOTE ]IMO "expert" play shouldn't really be used in preflop spots since nobody folds preflop since there's 5 cards coming, and ESPECIALLY in a blind war where people take their premiums to the felt.

Re: Button steal 10/20
 

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How often do you 3-raise with AA/KK over top of an unknown BB reraise? I do it almost never.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, but how often do you "3-raise" the BB with a hand worse than AA/KK/AK/QQ? I'm just saying that most times that he makes that move he's got one of those four hands and he's not laying it.

Think Bayesian.