Can psychological factors turn a -EV play into a +EV play?
 

Last night online I won a huge pot with a gut-shot straight (I had odds to draw for it) against another large hand. The guy I beat got really angry, telling me I should have folded it and then proceded to go on tilt and lose most of his money. In this example I was +EV for the draw as the pot was so large, but it got me thinking about other situations where that isn't the case...

If I had a read on a player that he might tilt if I hit a long shot against him could it be worth playing a -EV draw when the possibility of making the opponent tilt if you hit is factored in?

Thoughts?

Re: Can psychological factors turn a -EV play into a +EV play?
 

I'm sure this is often the case.

Showing your cards is another example. Revealing anything you don't have to is in principle -EV, but it might lose one (or more) of your opponents even more EV (which you gain) if he misuses the information.

Re: Can psychological factors turn a -EV play into a +EV play?
 

Its called advertising. You overplay an inferior hand and show the hand to help get action on your good hands. You use it when the table is tight.

I put a guy on tilt at Caears In. He was calling my raises with very weak holdings and hitting. He limped in with KK and I campleted the small blind with 64o. There were 8 callers. Long story short, I won and He was steaming. It amazed me that a guy that had sucked out on me all night could tilt because of one hand. After that I started beating him and I am pretty sure he laid down a few winners to me.

Re: Can psychological factors turn a -EV play into a +EV play?
 

1/2 the strategy in my home game is puting the whole table on tilt.

Re: Can psychological factors turn a -EV play into a +EV play?
 

In a book called Bad Bet, Chip Reese talks about deliberately doing this to players that can lose a lot of money when on tilt, and says that Bobby Baldwin does it too.

Re: Can psychological factors turn a -EV play into a +EV play?
 

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If I had a read on a player that he might tilt if I hit a long shot against him could it be worth playing a -EV draw when the possibility of making the opponent tilt if you hit is factored in?

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The real question is whether this move is really -EV? Arguably, you should never make a move that is truly long term -EV. If the "implied tilt odds" that you have outweigh a small short term disadvantage that you have when calling, then calling is still +EV even though the pot odds don't say so.

That said, situations where this is actually the case (and you're not justifying a call because you want to gamble) are few and far between.

Re: Can psychological factors turn a -EV play into a +EV play?
 

I know that nobody really cares for his book, but Phil Hellmuth gives a good example of this in Play Poker Like the Pros. In a big money game that Hellmuth used to play in regularly, there was a player who would sit down and, for his first two orbits at the table, raise every time the action got to him, regardless of his cards/holdings. The end result was that the usually tight players would open up a lot, and there was plenty of action at the table for hours after the "maniac" settled into his normal game. Advertising works, especially when you're up against the kind of players who will play more hands against a perceived weak player.

Just the other night I remember raising with AQs, betting the flop and turn inimproved, and then bet/calling unimproved on the river heads up. Of course I lost the hand, but 3 hands later when I was dealt KK, all of a sudden I had 4 players tagging along to the river with me on what had been a moderately tight table. Making the odd -EV play can be a very good play in the long run, providing your opponents will change their play because of it.

Re: Can psychological factors turn a -EV play into a +EV play?
 

In my opinion your play on the pos-ev was correct since you could justify calling for the pot odds. You hit your hand and got paid off for your ev. It sounds to me like the player getting angry doesnt know that you had the correct position to draw at your hand. This type of player can be put on tilt from the loss of any hand regardless of a draw out. He may have had the winning hand going into fifth but we all know in poker you dont always come out ahead when all the cards are dealt. If he doesnt understand this he is an inexperienced player and you can gain from his poor play. That does not mean that you should start playing inferior hands to try and offset him. Your losses may not offset his bad play. hope this helped. [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]