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-   -   Looking for some intermediate advice (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=401806)

12-20-2005 02:23 AM

Looking for some intermediate advice
 
I'm going to try and make this short and to the point, but I have the feeling it might get drawn out. I played my first hands of seven card stud when I was in junior high, and in the past 7-8 months have picked it up again, finding that it was more lucrative and a little less swingy than holdem. I play at one of the smaller sites, pokerroom. The reason I play there, is since it is one of the samller sites, I feel the level of play is much lower than it would be at PPs or Full Tilt etc. I play in the largest game going there, which is small compared to other sites. Its usually 4-8 and 6-12, going up to 10-20 at the most. I have kept tight notes on players, which has paid off. Ive read Chip Reese's chapter on 7 card in Super System, as well as the chapter in Hellmuth's book on 7 card. With that in mind, let me try and get to the point. Last week I was on a roll, I was getting decent hands, they were holding up, and the calling stations were paying off. It turned into 7 straight days of decent profit. In the past 4 days, I have just gotten hosed. Let me recap a few of the hands. I've only had rolled trips twice, both times losing to straights using my case card. My aces up and kings up on 4th losing to underpairs turning trips on 7th. Catching my flush on 7th only to lose to boat, very next hand, boat losing to a bigger buried boat. And the one that got me writing this article, and one that happens a lot: 3 handed, 4-8. I start split Kings, Ace calls, bring in shows deuce. On 4th Ace raises, I reraise cause the Ace has been raising almost every hand and I'm confident he doesnt have it. Bring in calls double bet ace folds thankfully. I bet my split Kings all the way to 7th and check on 7th when they dont improve. Villain flips over 8s and 2s, caught 8 on 6th. I know this guy is a calling station, known this for a while, and its usually worked out. But the past week has been a nightmare. Seems like every over pair never pairs up and my draws never develop. So my ultimate question is: How do I combat this? I've heard rumors that pokerroom has the worst suckouts out of every poker site, but I'm sure thats what everyone says about their site when they are running bad. I'm just looking for some advice as what to do long run? Its starting to get annoying that I feel like I'm better than anyone I am playing with, yet I cant avoid the bad beats. Its to the point that even when I have a great starting hand, I'm not sure if I want anyone to call. Any help would be great, everything I've read here so far has been extremely helpful.

Andy B 12-20-2005 03:16 AM

Re: Looking for some intermediate advice
 
On-line poker is rigged.

Read 7CS4AP.

Try using paragraphs.

benwood 12-20-2005 03:33 AM

Re: Looking for some intermediate advice
 
There is no answer.Welcome to the wonderful world of poker. Good luck to you. Ben.

frappeboy 12-20-2005 04:06 AM

Re: Looking for some intermediate advice
 
Welcome to Hell. Be prepared for this to last up to 3 months straight. If you can't take the pain for that long, join the club.

Roland 12-20-2005 05:47 AM

Re: Looking for some intermediate advice
 
[ QUOTE ]
On-line poker is rigged.

Read 7CS4AP.

Try using paragraphs.

[/ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]
There is no answer.Welcome to the wonderful world of poker.

[/ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]
Welcome to Hell. Be prepared for this to last up to 6 months straight. If you can't take the pain for that long, join the club.

[/ QUOTE ]

MrBlueNose 12-20-2005 05:51 AM

Re: Looking for some intermediate advice
 
You just gotta move up limits where your raises will get respect. Be sure to cash the 500/1000 game with some fella called Phil Ivey, he won't suckout on ya.

lstream 12-20-2005 11:09 AM

Re: Looking for some intermediate advice
 
[ QUOTE ]
But the past week has been a nightmare

[/ QUOTE ]
A week is a minor blip in the radar in this game. As others have said, be prepared for stretches of months where nothing seems to go right. Yes you will lose lots of money to "inferior" players who are doing downright stupid things. Thats what keeps them coming back. Running bad is like a big filter that separates poker tourists from the long term winning players.

12-20-2005 11:23 AM

Re: Looking for some intermediate advice
 
Heh LOL ... my experience exactly .... a great run lasting one day, now weeks of losing it again

I hate the variance bit of poker, but if it wasn't there, we might as well play chess, and when the best wins everytime, nobody wants to play, so ...

The interesting question is, Stud or Hold'em ??

Why play stud at all ... especially since it's harder to multitable stud ?? (and is multitabling overrated by the way)

dandy_don 12-20-2005 11:28 AM

Re: Looking for some intermediate advice
 
[ QUOTE ]
I'm going to try and make this short

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd hate for you to get long winded. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]

...and a little less swingy than holdem.

[/ QUOTE ]
[img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]

It turned into 7 straight days of decent profit. In the past 4 days, I have just gotten hosed.

[/ QUOTE ]
Variance happens...welcome to Stud.

Seriously, I notice this happens more often when I'm not as mentally sharp as other days--tired from work and such. Doc AZ had a post about this a couple of years ago about testing you mental capacity, the types of foods you should eat to improve this, etc.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm just looking for some advice as what to do long run?

[/ QUOTE ]
You've found the right place; stick around, read and study the game. Play the game because you love it, not because you believe it to have less variance than other games. You will find that the major posters here love this game.

[ QUOTE ]
Itís starting to get annoying that I feel like I'm better than anyone I am playing with

[/ QUOTE ]

All of us think that from time to time, then reality bites us in the butt--deal with it but challenge yourself to constantly improve.

Have you read any of the posted hands on this forum? Not even the best players on this site agree with one another on the best method to play a particular hand, so how can you believe you know better than the players you play? Sometimes, there is no right or wrong, only better and best.

[ QUOTE ]
Itís to the point that even when I have a great starting hand, I'm not sure if I want anyone to call. Any help would be great; everything I've read here so far has been extremely helpful.

[/ QUOTE ]

We all have been there. Optimal play wins in the long run, but bad beats happen. Yes it's frustrating when it happens repeatedly, but part of the game is to accept them and wait for pay back time.

In a loose game as you have described, big pairs lose strength because you MUST get in a heads up situation with pairs. If you will have 4 callers despite all attempts to raise, reraise and check-raise, you sometimes have to learn to let the big pairs go and wait for a better opportunity.

dandy

frappeboy 12-20-2005 11:58 AM

Re: Looking for some intermediate advice
 
[ QUOTE ]
I hate the variance bit of poker, but if it wasn't there, we might as well play chess

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a certain degree of luck in chess. Like getting paired with an opponent who got roaring drunk the night before. Sometimes certain players match up better against others, and sometimes you just happen to make the right moves by accident (this happens to me ALOT and I'm quite strong)... Anyways I don't know what the point of this post is, I guess it's "Variance sucks and then you die".

lane mcbride 12-20-2005 12:06 PM

Re: Looking for some intermediate advice
 
playing in loose games such as pokerroom requires a different set of skills. you need to learn how to eliminate opponents, pump your draws for value, and call in some spots on third where you typically would raise. I would guess you are overplaying your starting hands against too many players. also, in loose games, you can limp with some more mediocre hands if they are live

read 7 card stud for advanced players... especially the section on loose games

12-20-2005 12:13 PM

Re: Looking for some intermediate advice
 
Being unclear I will reformulate, what I just wrote

The we might just as well play chess remark is to be seen in this light:

In chess there is some, but far less variance than in poker, so if there is the slightest difference in strength between to players, it quickly show and the worse player gets spanked (you do not need a sample of 10000 games, a mere 10 games might suffice as a significant sample .. a 100 games is more than enough)

As a consequence of this, there is zero money to be won in the world of chess if you are not a worldclass player. (That is the price for not having big variance, no money)


But the question of this post is, have to minimize variance ??

Originally it came as an, How to minimize variance in stud ... but I more wonder, which game to play to minimize Variance Hold'em or Stud ?? (And yes there is the good old stud8 answer to this as well, which brings us to the next question. Most tend to agree that hi/lo games are harder on Fish, do they move on quickly and just leave the regulars or ?? (I haven't played that much stud8 as you know, but am considering giving the 2/4$ games on party a shot)

Roland 12-20-2005 12:13 PM

Re: Looking for some intermediate advice
 
[ QUOTE ]
Like getting paired with an opponent who got roaring drunk the night before.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't know Andy plays chess.

[ QUOTE ]
sometimes you just happen to make the right moves by accident (this happens to me ALOT and I'm quite strong)...

[/ QUOTE ]

You run g00d.

[ QUOTE ]
"Variance sucks and then you die".

[/ QUOTE ]

I want to die.

dandy_don 12-20-2005 12:16 PM

Re: Looking for some intermediate advice
 
[ QUOTE ]
read 7 card stud for advanced players... especially the section on loose games

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, join us next month as a portion of the stud forum plans to read and discuss 7CSFAP.

Link

frappeboy 12-20-2005 12:34 PM

Re: Looking for some intermediate advice
 
[ QUOTE ]
Originally it came as an, How to minimize variance in stud ... but I more wonder, which game to play to minimize Variance Hold'em or Stud ?? (And yes there is the good old stud8 answer to this as well, which brings us to the next question. Most tend to agree that hi/lo games are harder on Fish, do they move on quickly and just leave the regulars or ?? (I haven't played that much stud8 as you know, but am considering giving the 2/4$ games on party a shot)

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok I think I can answer this question. Omaha 8/b and Stud 8/b have the lowest variance of limit games. I also think that limit hold'em has less variance than stud unless the game is really aggressive with lots of bets going into the pot preflop, in which case it has about the same variance as stud.

The game that has the least variance of all is NL hold'em, simply because you can control the odds you give your opponent and charge a weak player huge amounts when hes on a draw, this increase your win rate by a huge margin and the larger your win rate the smaller your variance.

You can control, to some degree, how much variance you have when playing stud. You do this by folding in marginal situations. You may lose a little bit off your win rate by playing this way, but your standard deviation will be much lower. But if you're the type of player who will go on major tilt when losing, than you actually SAVE money in the long run even though you lose money right now. This is because you'll have less swings and therefore go on tilt LESS. Also, if you have any doubts about how well you can play in marginal situations, you will save money by playing this way.

12-20-2005 01:01 PM

Re: Looking for some intermediate advice
 
Hey Worm,

Yup, I know what you mean.

Just coming down from a 4-week heater that came to a screeching halt last Friday. I swear, over this period, I had not one losing day and, at any point, I was down 25 BB max which would invariably be corrected by monsters or calling stations.

Of course, since Friday, I'm down close to 100BB.

Somebody recently posted something to the effect that when things are good for a while, you start believing that you are actually good, you are in control, you understand the villains. And then within a few sessions it feels like the whole house of cards is crumbling.

To me, when on a heater, I get more aggressive and it works. I get to push people out of pots. Of course, some of the plays are just plain wrong. This compounds the problem when the cards turn bad. Now, after a few days of steady on-going losses, I notice a reverse effect. I feel compelled to throw away hands that I should probably call with. I've been pushed out of pots that shoulda been mine! I'm less willing to wait till 5h to raise. That sort of stuff.

Anyway, these few things keep me going:
- It's happened to me before and it will swing back.
- It seems to me that after a few losing sessions the regulars become much more loose against me. When the cards turn, there'll be good opportunity.
- I try to accept it. When I take the beats, I try to keep a sense of perspective. If I play enough hands, my K high straight flush will one day be beat (and prob'ly KQJT9xx vs xxTJQKA).
- I try to be more selective of the tables and I try to recognize when I'm playing bad. The idea is to walk away. I hope one day to be so wise.
- When on a losing streak, I tend to analyze my play much more. I think this is good.

SA125 12-20-2005 01:22 PM

Re: Looking for some intermediate advice
 
[ QUOTE ]
It turned into 7 straight days of decent profit. In the past 4 days, I have just gotten hosed.

[/ QUOTE ]

You ran good for 7 straight days? And complaining? I routinely start a session by going 100-250 hands without a win. Happens about every 3rd one. That means I'm sitting at a table where, on average, I should win 1 out of every 6 or 8 hands and go 250 straight with 0. I start a session with the deck hitting me in the face about every 10 sessions. Half of those times there's no money in the pot and I'm dragging ante's with rolled up A's. I've never run good for more than 2 sessions ever, and I mean ever. Cue the violins and pass the tissues.

Having said that, stud is way more of a suckout game than holdem and has more variance. The number typically thrown around is 300 BB's to play a limit comfortably. I think that's low for stud. I routinely go 4 sessions in a row dropping 25-50 BB's. Ran good for 7 sessions in a row? You're lucky.

12-20-2005 01:33 PM

Re: Looking for some intermediate advice
 
[ QUOTE ]
I routinely start a session by going 100-250 hands without a win. Happens about every 3rd one.

[/ QUOTE ]

My first time at a 3/6 table, I lost 97 hands in a row. I still wince at it. 250 hands? Regularly? Surely, you can't be serious???

[ QUOTE ]
I should win 1 out of every 6 or 8 hands

[/ QUOTE ]

If I'm winning at that rate, I am doing great. Typical is 1 out of 10.

blumpkin22 12-20-2005 01:39 PM

Re: Looking for some intermediate advice
 
Stud is easy. I've never had a losing session. You should probably just quit the game.

dandy_don 12-20-2005 01:45 PM

Re: Looking for some intermediate advice
 
[ QUOTE ]
My first time at a 3/6 table, I lost 97 hands in a row. I still wince at it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Likewise at the $2/$4 table a few months back that sent me back to the $1/$2 games for a couple months.

SA125 12-20-2005 02:36 PM

Re: Looking for some intermediate advice
 
I play a lot of 6 max stud. In the last 5 days I've had two runs where I started the session losing 150 and 250 hands with no wins. It's nothing new and not bad when you're card dead and folding, but it drives you nuts when you're getting cracked left and right.

1 out of 10 sounds reasonable. My avg winning % is 4% per session. Running bad is 0%, running good is 7%. So out of 200 hands, 4% is 8. That's winning on avg 1 out of every 25. The suckouts in stud drive me nuts. The amount of times you're run down by hands like a smaller pair chasing a bigger one is mind boggling. Makes me wonder where they get these win % numbers from with AA vs 55. It aint from playing on Party.

Andy B 12-20-2005 08:41 PM

Re: Looking for some intermediate advice
 
Of course, sometimes he stays up three days straight until he gets even.

Andy B 12-20-2005 08:47 PM

Re: Looking for some intermediate advice
 
I don't remember the last time I actually played chess. It's probably been a few years. I played a fair amount in high school and college, studied the game some. I do very well against uninitiated players--my mom, my ex-father-in-law, etc., but good players mop the floor with me.

Also, "roaring drunk" is BeerMoney's domain. I drink a certain amount, but I don't overdo it very often. I'm 37, and when I do have too many, the next morning is moderately hellish. Also, taxis are ridiculously expensive in this town.

Andy B 12-20-2005 08:58 PM

Re: Looking for some intermediate advice
 
When I was a student at Boston U (1986-90), there was a guy who played chess in front of the Au Bon Pain on Harvard Square and took on all comers for $2 a game. You got ten minutes and he got five. Someone who was accomplished might get five minutes to his four. I believe that this was his only means of support. Of course, this might be worse than no money, because he might have been better off making sandwiches in the Au Bon Pain.

12-21-2005 06:47 AM

Re: Looking for some intermediate advice
 
Looks like your advice paid off, took 1st in a $20 stud tourney and 4th in a $20 NL HE tourney, back to back. Had to play both final tables at same time, but it worked out ok. Took a bad beat to get knocked out, gut shot on river, but im not complaing. Hpoefully this puts me back on track.


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