Sat bubble play. autocall with AK ?
 

okay so this is a cruise sattelite. first 25 gets a cruise ticket. I'm #24 in chips with 29 players left when this happens.
My friends and I were discussing this hand. I mean if this was a regular $ tournament and I was this low in chips I would insta-call. I'm not 100% sure that its the correct play in this situation though. Any thoughts?

[-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------]

** Game ID 388774601 starting - 2005-12-27 00:03:54

** Festival Week Final:Table 3 [Multi Table Hold 'em] ( No Limit - MTT) Real Money



- Hero sitting in seat 1 with $6036.00

- busster sitting in seat 2 with $18619.00 [Dealer]

- Michelin sitting in seat 3 with $15955.00

- whitebeach sitting in seat 4 with $17312.00

- ScotsJ11 sitting in seat 5 with $2820.00

- birkey sitting in seat 7 with $7272.00

- detomasoP sitting in seat 8 with $4370.00

- f4511 sitting in seat 9 with $19295.00

- tanisia sitting in seat 10 with $8230.00



Michelin posted the small blind - $500.00

whitebeach posted the big blind - $1000.00



** Dealing card to Hero: K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

ScotsJ11 folded

birkey went all-in - $7272.00

detomasoP folded

f4511 folded

tanisia folded

Hero went all-in - $6036.00

busster folded

Michelin folded

whitebeach folded

birkey shows: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]



** Dealing the flop: 2 of Hearts, 4 of Clubs, 6 of Clubs



** Dealing the turn: 4 of Diamonds



** Dealing the river: King of Hearts

birkey wins $13572.00 from the main pot



End of game 388774601



[-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------]

Re: Sat bubble play. autocall with AK ?
 

I personally would have folded as you're hoping for a coin flip with all the risk and no reward.

I'd rather be the one going all-in because I'd expect to steal the blinds much easier, since my opponents wouldn't want to cripple their chances anyway.

Re: Sat bubble play. autocall with AK ?
 

Personally I would fold, because nobody wants to broke at this stage the allin raise is too likely to be a big pair. I much rather be the raiser in this position.

regards

ross

Re: Sat bubble play. autocall with AK ?
 

Assuming there are two more tables the sizes of the short stacks on these are highly relevant. Meaning, if you are the third shortest stack overall and everybody else has like a million in chips, this could merit a call.

Also relevant is time left of current level. If the blinds are about to double in a few hands it would be an incentive to call as well.

But these conjectures aside, currently you are the third shortest stack on you table, with enough chips for sitting 4 rounds at this level - not at all that uncomfortable 5 seats from the money in a super satellite. Definitively not a panic situation.

UTG+1 with a bigger stack than your moves in. Unless you have seen him do that with a wide range of hands you are very likely to find yourself on the short side of a coinflip here - pretty much only ahead of AQ and AJ, the latter not even being that likely.

AK is a hand I like to re-raise all-in with, not to call all-in - it's usually badly in need of FE to be ahead.

In a regular tournament on the bubble and with reads of UTG+1 being a LAG I might call.

Here - pending the stack sizes on the other tables - I think it's a clear fold.

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)

Re: Sat bubble play. autocall with AK ?
 

If you call, on average you're probably out of the tournament 50% of the time, and you win a seat the other 50%.

If you fold, i think you could definitely sneak in much more than 50%. You have a big enouogh stack to steal, and you can last a few rounds, and.. you're on pace to make it now anyway.

Re: Sat bubble play. autocall with AK ?
 

This is a case where you can afford to give up +cEV now for +$EV down the road. Pass and let the small stacks bust out. Busting on this bubble would not be good, especially when the end is so close and it's possible that you have better odds of folding into a seat than you do of winning this hand.

If this were a top heavy payout event I would call in this spot, but since the last payout spot is the same as the first it isn't quite as important to accumulate more chips here. You're better off just surviving in this case.

Re: Sat bubble play. autocall with AK ?
 

good time to lay ak down here. With your stack right now you can last a few rounds and maybe even fold your way into a cruise ticket. Tough fold though