The value of information (slightly retarded)
 

I had a 63o today and a thought entered my mind that led me to think about a question...

Let's say you were granted a magical ability, very limited but still cool.

Say you always knew how many 3's would flop (or any other card).

That was all, you always knew exactly how many 3's there would be on the flop.

What would this do to your win rate as a player? Would it make a HUGE difference? A small one?

Obviously you'd pick up alot more pots, as every time you got dealt 33 you would know when you hit a set or when your X3 would flop trips.

The other interesting question of this would it make hands like A3 and K3 playable if your little "radar" told you a 3 would flop....

Re: The value of information (slightly retarded)
 

My initial reaction is that this gift would make a huge winner out of anyone who knew that a flush beat a straight; those that didn't know this could have it printed on their shirt allowing them to also make a fortune.

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O.K. - I've had time to think about it . . .

and I'm sticking to my original assumption.

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As to #2, I can't see how knowing EXACTLY one 3 would make A-3 or K-3 playable other than as a blind steal that was barely unprofitable sans this info.

Re: The value of information (slightly retarded)
 

if this was a higher card, like a 9 I believe this would more than double your winrate. I dont see the value of a 3 helping you much at all.

Re: The value of information (slightly retarded)
 

Just a few quick thoughts...

Knowing that exactly a single 3 is coming obviously dramatically increases the value of 33. It also significantly increases the value of any 3x, which now becomes ~12% to flop 2 pair or better. 42 goes up in value, as do A2, 45, A4 and A5.

Further, knowing how many 3s are coming alters the odds of your other hands hitting the flop, and this knowledge can be used to increase the EV of these hands because you could play them more correctly than other players.. For example, the odds of non-33 pocket pairs making a set is lower if you know a single 3 is coming (~9% instead of ~12%). Conversely, if you know that zero 3s are coming the odds of making a set go up slightly.

The value of connectors that do not use a 3 in their straight drops significantly if a 3 is coming, and any flush/straight type hands lose nearly all their value if you know that two or more 3s are coming.

I'm sure there are many more ways to adjust one's play in order to best take advantage of this extra information than those in this quick post, but I think it's clear that when used properly this extra information should improve one's winrate fairly dramatically.

M

Re: The value of information (slightly retarded)
 

Excellent analysis....

Now how do I know how many 3's are coming? HAHA

Re: The value of information (slightly retarded)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Now how do I know how many 3's are coming? HAHA

[/ QUOTE ]

Create your own online poker site and rig it. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: The value of information (slightly retarded)
 

knowing a 3 comes is huge news for hands like A3. you can now 3 bet these hands more liberally since you know you'll outflop AK AQ etc.

A3 becomes a notch above AK