Crazy guy bets $98 into $12 pot......turns out it was me...thoughts?
 

Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: GeorgePiper ( $47.26)
Seat 2: Snadly ( $77.90)
Seat 3: HERO ( $101)
Seat 5: thegahi ( $110.28)
Seat 6: blondie3398 ( $18.50)
HERO posts small blind (0.25)
thegahi posts big blind (0.50)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Ad, Ah ]
blondie3398 calls (0.50)
GeorgePiper calls (0.50)
Snadly folds.
HERO raises (2.75) to 3
thegahi calls (2.50)
blondie3398 calls (2.50)
GeorgePiper calls (2.50)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 2h, Js, 2s ]
HERO bets (98)
HERO is all-In.
thegahi folds.
blondie3398 folds.
GeorgePiper folds.
Creating Main Pot with $109.40 with murphyempire
** Summary **
Main Pot: $109.40 | Rake: $0.60
Board: [ 2h Js 2s ]
GeorgePiper balance $44.26, lost $3 (folded)
Snadly balance $77.90, didn't bet (folded)
HERO balance $109.40, bet $101, collected $109.40, net +$8.40
thegahi balance $107.28, lost $3 (folded)
blondie3398 balance $15.50, lost $3 (folded)

Re: Crazy guy bets $98 into $12 pot......turns out it was me...thought
 

Any hand beating you calls. ANY hand.

Re: Crazy guy bets $98 into $12 pot......turns out it was me...thought
 

Any hand beating you calls. ANY hand.

LOL. Obviously they wouldn't fold. That's the reason for the post. The chance of someone having a 2 is almost 0. The chance of JJ very slim. The chance of AJ or KJ, likely someone could have that. Chance of a flush draw, very likely. With 3 other players in, I didn't want anyone drawing to anything. This play is crazy, but is it justified for the chance that someone may call with AJ, KJ, or a flush draw, and the only hand calling me ahead there is JJ, otherwise I'm taking down the pot.

Thoughts?

Re: Crazy guy bets $98 into $12 pot......turns out it was me...thought
 

You will get called rarely by AJ, KJ, FD's. This play is not worth it. You will win a small pot 90% of the time and kill all that profit by losing a massive one 10% of the time. It makes much more sense to bet the pot and win a medium size pot 75% of the time and lose a medium size pot 25% of the time when they draw out on you. Former scenario is negative or breakeven. Latter scenario is profitable.

Re: Crazy guy bets $98 into $12 pot......turns out it was me...thought
 

[ QUOTE ]
Any hand beating you calls. ANY hand.

LOL. Obviously they wouldn't fold. That's the reason for the post. The chance of someone having a 2 is almost 0. The chance of JJ very slim. The chance of AJ or KJ, likely someone could have that. Chance of a flush draw, very likely. With 3 other players in, I didn't want anyone drawing to anything. This play is crazy, but is it justified for the chance that someone may call with AJ, KJ, or a flush draw, and the only hand calling me ahead there is JJ, otherwise I'm taking down the pot.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are scared someone is on the draw 3/4 or full pot it. Your play is suicidal and poor.

Re: Crazy guy bets $98 into $12 pot......turns out it was me...thoughts?
 

wow....

you're underestimating the amount of time noone will hold A2, K2, JJ, 22. you're overestimating the amount of time people will call with AJ/KJ. to be honest, even if you could bend the math to show this as a +EV play (which i don't think you can), there are other plays that are better here.

people don't post these hands when they backfire so i'm glad it worked out for you, but it's still not good.

Re: Crazy guy bets $98 into $12 pot......turns out it was me...thoughts?
 

This is the play you make when you arent good enough to play your hand.

Re: Crazy guy bets $98 into $12 pot......turns out it was me...thought
 

I've only made this move once, and it was because I was up against a mega fish. I can tell you right now that I have frequently stacked people who play overpairs this way.

Re: Crazy guy bets $98 into $12 pot......turns out it was me...thought
 

Unless you've got a rock solid read that there's a guy at the table that just refuses to accept that he could be being bluffed out of a hand, and is willing to drop his stack to find out, this seems like a really poor play. The chance of the above happening though is much slimmer than the chance of some player who's messing around with A2 or 22. Bad Bad Bad

Re: Crazy guy bets $98 into $12 pot......turns out it was me...thoughts?
 

well this depends on your image too. if you have a maniac/very lag image then i think this bet definitely gest paid off by AJ/KJ/FD.

Anyways, i like the bet, but only when used when the table thinks you're crazy. (Which, 5 handed, most tables think of me). Not knowing anyything about your image, i'd say this is still +EV but not the most +EV.