QQ Do I pay off or let it go? (no reads)
 

I'm not trying to post a bunch of bad beats, just trying to plug holes. Mammoth holes.

I think this one is so obvious I should let go, but I'd like some expert opinions.

Thanks

Absolute Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 8.25 BB

Re: QQ Do I pay off or let it go? (no reads)
 

I would fold this on the turn

EDIT:

effective odds bad. you'd expect a c/r from a heart but not always, so it's less likely he has one of those than he does a weak ace that wanted to see if the turn would 4 flush before he played his hand strongly

you're getting 6-2 on a calldown and a flush draw if that's whats out there is going to river you some of the time anyway, regardless of the fact that you probably have 2 outs as it is

Re: QQ Do I pay off or let it go? (no reads)
 

[ QUOTE ]
effective odds bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meaning I have no draw due to the lack of hearts? You got me on the effective odds. I'm trying to understand.

EDIT:

I found it. TOP. Effective odds meaning 2 more streets to make my hand, which may not be good?

Re: QQ Do I pay off or let it go? (no reads)
 

I think I'm letting this go on the turn. Too many ways you can be beaten.

Re: QQ Do I pay off or let it go? (no reads)
 

He's talking about how much it will cost to see a showdown.

You can't say, well, I'll be getting 5.25:1 on the turn and then 7.25:1 on the river. You will be putting in two bets to get to a showdown, so your real pot odds to see a shwodown are (4.25+2):2 = 6.25:2 = 3.125:1

Thus, you must win the showdown 1/4.125 = 24% of the time.
Given that a single heart will draw out on you 19% of the time, plus the chances of him having an ace, you should probably fold the turn.

Re: QQ Do I pay off or let it go? (no reads)
 

Thanks. There's a light at the end of the tunnel.

Pardon my ignorance, but it takes us blue collar guys a while to figure some of these things out.

Re: QQ Do I pay off or let it go? (no reads)
 

Folding to one bet on the turn seems awfully weak (but might be correct). I would strongly consider raising the turn for a free showdown and folding if re-raised or bet into on the river.

Re: QQ Do I pay off or let it go? (no reads)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Folding to one bet on the turn seems awfully weak (but might be correct). I would strongly consider raising the turn for a free showdown and folding if re-raised or bet into on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

it's amazing how close smart and weak actually are sometimtes [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

what do you think MP is betting with on the turn with 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] an Ace and now a possible straight that our Queens would either beat or improve to beat? kind of an odd place to simply bet a pair of 5s don't you think?

Re: QQ Do I pay off or let it go? (no reads)
 

I agree. Villain could have a flush, an ace, or (maybe depending on his level of fishiness) A4 or even 4x, easy fold on the turn. Punish him later for outdrawing you.