Two Plus Two Older Archives

Two Plus Two Older Archives (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/index.php)
-   Internet Gambling (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/forumdisplay.php?f=26)
-   -   SEC probes Doyle (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=399909)

AAAA 12-16-2005 08:42 PM

SEC probes Doyle
 
SEC probes brunson's bid for WPT

GrannyMae 12-16-2005 09:31 PM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
this was inevitable. only disclosure will settle this. said disclosure will sink or exonerate him. i sure hope it is exoneration.
[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Uglyowl 12-16-2005 09:41 PM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
This story is starting to get mainstream press as well. Wonder how big a story it will become?

Rudbaeck 12-16-2005 10:08 PM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
Someone made alot of money in that circus.

While I feel for Doyle I somehow don't see how he can be blameless in this. But on the other hand I can't see him being stupid enough to try this kind of moronic trick either. Oh well, I am fairly sure the SEC will manage to pierce attorney privilege and take this to court. Will be interesting to see who pulled the strings.

BassMasterK 12-16-2005 10:09 PM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
The stock collapsed from 29 to 6 a share after the bid fell through. There were many people who lost a bundle and are going to be very happy to hear this news. They have been crying for an investigation from the start and I didn't think it would really happen. I lucked out and sold at 28.

AAAA 12-16-2005 10:16 PM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
what grounds would they use to pierce attorney client privilege?

I can think that when attorneys are acting as businessmen, they should lose that privilege, but if they were advising him, and he confessed to something, that shouldn't be admissible.

I am concerned that this doesn't blow the whole poker world to pieces. Don't know who is old enough to remember what the $64,000 question scandal did to tv game shows. I would hate to see online poker get tarred with that brush.

GrannyMae 12-16-2005 10:19 PM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
[ QUOTE ]
what grounds would they use to pierce attorney client privilege?

I can think that when attorneys are acting as businessmen, they should lose that privilege, but if they were advising him, and he confessed to something, that shouldn't be admissible.

I am concerned that this doesn't blow the whole poker world to pieces. Don't know who is old enough to remember what the $64,000 question scandal did to tv game shows. I would hate to see online poker get tarred with that brush.

[/ QUOTE ]

martha stewart has never been so big since her scandal.

people will not stop playing poker because the old boys's club pulled a fast one on a lightly traded (relatively speaking) security.

Sponger15SB 12-16-2005 10:27 PM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
[ QUOTE ]
i sure hope it is exoneration.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, why? He looks pretty guilty! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

memphis57 12-16-2005 11:03 PM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
[ QUOTE ]
what grounds would they use to pierce attorney client privilege?


[/ QUOTE ]

Patriot Act.

And, as for what relation this might have to terrorism, well everybody knows that all illegal perpetrators hang together, so it's not at all unlikely that online poker is funding Al Queda.

(This is sarcasm, but only just barely - they're already using Patriot Act powers widely in the war on drugs.)

Beavis68 12-16-2005 11:08 PM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i sure hope it is exoneration.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, why? He looks pretty guilty! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Guilty of what?

goodguy_1 12-16-2005 11:12 PM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
4 months ago:

NEWS: WPTE posts loss for 2Q, getting hammered

jman220 12-17-2005 01:09 AM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
[ QUOTE ]
SEC probes brunson's bid for WPT

[/ QUOTE ]

Is Doyle really worth this much money? Where did he get it all from? I just can't see poker + all his sponsorship deals possibly being enough to make him a billionaire.

Luv2DriveTT 12-17-2005 07:53 AM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
SEC probes brunson's bid for WPT

[/ QUOTE ]

Is Doyle really worth this much money? Where did he get it all from? I just can't see poker + all his sponsorship deals possibly being enough to make him a billionaire.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, he claimed to have a group of investors. Doyle is not rich enough to pull this off by himself.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

FlFishOn 12-17-2005 01:01 PM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
The worlds of poker and finance are full of opportunistic scumbags (think Dutch Boyd). Where does Brunson come down on this sliding scale? I guarantee you he will not get sainthood for his part in it.

GrannyMae 12-17-2005 01:07 PM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
[ QUOTE ]
The worlds of poker and finance are full of opportunistic scumbags (think Dutch Boyd). Where does Brunson come down on this sliding scale? I guarantee you he will not get sainthood for his part in it.

[/ QUOTE ]

do you know the facts? nobody does, so STFU until you have a basis for your opinion.

mentioning boyd and doyle in same post shows you are simply a provocateur.

fool

FlFishOn 12-17-2005 01:15 PM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
"a basis for your opinion."

I've gone round with Brunson and my limited experience is that he's no virgin. That's a bit too charitable. I thought he was duplicitous and disingenuous, 2/3rds of the way to being a scumbag.

Perhaps your experience is more favorable. You could throw his bail then.

adanthar 12-17-2005 01:52 PM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
[ QUOTE ]
do you know the facts? nobody does, so STFU until you have a basis for your opinion.

mentioning boyd and doyle in same post shows you are simply a provocateur.

fool

[/ QUOTE ]

If Doyle is guilty - and let's face it, from the outside the main factor in his defense right now is that nobody could be dumb enough to do something this obvious in public - the difference between him and Dutch is that Dutch didn't pay back/may or may not have intended to steal money from his players, while Doyle outright stole millions from WPT stockholders.

I don't know which one is worse, but that's not exactly on a different level, except maybe scale.

FlFishOn 12-17-2005 02:41 PM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
"If Doyle is guilty ..."

The big issue is not guilt, since that is currently indeterminate. The thing that catches my eye is the huge sum of money transfered between stockholders. This transfer has at it's root (in?)action by Brunson.

I can't wait to see how it plays out.

BassMasterK 12-17-2005 02:58 PM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
[ QUOTE ]
Guilty of what?

[/ QUOTE ]

Guilty of submitting a fake bid to buy WPTE for over double its (at the time) current value in an effort to drive the price of the stock up so that he, or people he was affiliated with could profit from the spike on the news, and then sell before the collapse.

For those who weren't following the stock the following happened:
A bid for wpte by Doyle and a group of backers he represented was submitted to wpte and reported by a NY based newspaper. The bid was 700 million. The stock was floating around 19 to 20 at the time. If the bid was accepted the stock would be valued at approx. 36 a share. WPTE was asked about the bid and they confirmed the bid and halted selling for a few hours to investigate it. They came back and said it was a 'skeleton offer' (ie, short on specifics other than price) but that it looked valid. They reopened trading and the stock shot to 29 before the market closed. Huge volume that day as people were looking to get in under the 36 that it was expected to go to. Then the fishy stuff happened. WPTE said they needed to contact Doyle for more specifics. They tried to contact him, but he was playing in the WSOP and 'would not be available' until after the tournament which coincidently happened to be AFTER the offer would expire. WPTE contacted the law firm that represented Doyle in the offer. They were told that the law firm, after consideration, had removed itself from representing Doyle in the offer and had no further comment. WPTE felt they couldn't accept the offer without more specifics, I would guess regarding what current managements place in the new company makeup would be, and the stock tanked from 29 to 6. Investors lost millions if not billions on this fake bid.

Shareholders wanted an investigation. I really didn't think it would happen. Speculation on many forums for the stock is that Doyle owed some people money/favors and that he did it for them. The question will be how well they hid the money trail. I don't think he is nieve enough, nor his son for either of them to have been holding stock as that would be too obvious. If the SEC is able to connect a large sale of stock to people he knows then he will be in a lot of trouble and he will probably do time.

Many shareholders want to see him do hard time with a cellmate named 'bubba'. The people who lost money do not look at this fake bid as anything but criminal.

It will be interesting to see what happens.

GrannyMae 12-17-2005 03:13 PM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
[ QUOTE ]
Guilty of submitting a fake bid to buy WPTE for over double its (at the time) current value in an effort to drive the price of the stock up so that he, or people he was affiliated with could profit from the spike on the news, and then sell before the collapse.

[/ QUOTE ]

judge, jury and executioner??

do you not agree that the bid was so high that it is UNlikely to have been bogus considering the obvious flag it would raise?

do you understand that if beale was part of the group, getting $700mil would have been no problem?

wpte will value at that level within a year or two.

Sniper 12-17-2005 04:21 PM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
[ QUOTE ]
do you not agree that the bid was so high that it is UNlikely to have been bogus considering the obvious flag it would raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

Brunson's bid was clearly labeled a BLUFF at the time! (Do a search of the stock market forum/archives, if you want to see what was said about the offer at the time)

[ QUOTE ]
do you understand that if beale was part of the group, getting $700mil would have been no problem?

[/ QUOTE ]

WPTE wasn't worth anywhere near $700 mil then, or now!

[ QUOTE ]
wpte will value at that level within a year or two.

[/ QUOTE ]

What will be the catalyst? WPTE has never made a profit!!!

12-17-2005 04:52 PM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Guilty of submitting a fake bid to buy WPTE for over double its (at the time) current value in an effort to drive the price of the stock up so that he, or people he was affiliated with could profit from the spike on the news, and then sell before the collapse.


[/ QUOTE ]



judge, jury and executioner??

do you not agree that the bid was so high that it is UNlikely to have been bogus considering the obvious flag it would raise?

do you understand that if beale was part of the group, getting $700mil would have been no problem?

wpte will value at that level within a year or two.

[/ QUOTE ]

Firstly, you are a moron.

Secondly, if the bid was not bogus, then why did Doyle not talk with the WPT after the bid was announced?

Thirdly, the WPT is currently worth $125 million and has negative earnings. How is this stock going to climb to a market cap of $700 million when they can't figure out how to make money?

And finally, you are a moron. I can't believe there were enough fools on this board to pay to send you to the WSOP. They might as well have flushed that money down the toilet.

mackthefork 12-17-2005 05:02 PM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
[ QUOTE ]
Someone made alot of money in that circus.

While I feel for Doyle I somehow don't see how he can be blameless in this. But on the other hand I can't see him being stupid enough to try this kind of moronic trick either. Oh well, I am fairly sure the SEC will manage to pierce attorney privilege and take this to court. Will be interesting to see who pulled the strings.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, but I can see him being retarded enough, to get involved with people who would, without any actual dishonest intent on his part.

Mack

GrannyMae 12-17-2005 05:27 PM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
[ QUOTE ]
And finally, you are a moron. I can't believe there were enough fools on this board to pay to send you to the WSOP. They might as well have flushed that money down the toilet.


[/ QUOTE ]

http://users.pandora.be/eforum/emoti...crazy/1271.gifhttp://users.pandora.be/eforum/emoti...crazy/1271.gifhttp://users.pandora.be/eforum/emoti...crazy/1271.gifhttp://users.pandora.be/eforum/emoti...crazy/1271.gifhttp://users.pandora.be/eforum/emoti...crazy/1271.gifhttp://users.pandora.be/eforum/emoti...crazy/1271.gifhttp://users.pandora.be/eforum/emoti...crazy/1271.gifhttp://users.pandora.be/eforum/emoti...crazy/1271.gif


we shall see who the moron is. doyle will be cleared.

12-17-2005 06:16 PM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
Just cause hes the godfather doesnt mean hes innocent? I agree with dude u are a moron.. and ill be taking donations for next years wsop lol hahahahahah

if theyll send u theyll send anyone

FlFishOn 12-17-2005 07:00 PM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
"I can't believe there were enough fools on this board to pay to send you to the WSOP. They might as well have flushed that money down the toilet. "

WSOP EV and toilet EV were equivalent. There was one less bad/stupid beat story from the toilet.

I figured out how to short granny next year. Bet a 'last longer' taking whatever lifeform draws his RH seat.

FlFishOn 12-17-2005 07:09 PM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
"if theyll send u theyll send anyone"

I see a few bucks to be made here administering a 'Short granny' fund. Better check with the SEC first.

memphis57 12-17-2005 07:14 PM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
[ QUOTE ]
Just cause hes the godfather doesnt mean hes innocent? I agree with dude u are a moron.. and ill be taking donations for next years wsop lol hahahahahah

if theyll send u theyll send anyone

[/ QUOTE ]


Hehe, silly newbies, talking back to granny. Guess in a week or so we'll find a couple more corpses behind the casino with knitting needles sticking out of their eyeballs.

BassMasterK 12-17-2005 07:34 PM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
[ QUOTE ]
judge, jury and executioner??

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely not. There will be a seperate judge, and a seperate jury. I find it hard to believe that you think there would be an executioner...I think that is going a bit to the extreme.

[ QUOTE ]
do you not agree that the bid was so high that it is UNlikely to have been bogus considering the obvious flag it would raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

No I do not agree. In case you don't watch the market much, people make moves that raise flags all the time. They do it because they know that for every hundred of them, maybe one will be investigated. Many of them have people so far removed from them making the moves that it is hard to prove and to prosecute. That is why people don't fear the SEC...until the SEC really comes knocking. If Doyle has nothing to hide, why is he not cooperating with the SEC?

Do you not agree that if you were to make an offer to buy wpte, a deal that involves 700 MILLION DOLLARS, that you might make it at a time where you could make yourself AVAILABLE for any questions that the current organization might have regarding the deal? Would you not agree that it does not look good to have the law firm handling your 700 million dollar deal distance themselves from you and withdraw their services and position in the deal the very next day?

[ QUOTE ]
do you understand that if beale was part of the group, getting $700mil would have been no problem?

[/ QUOTE ]

Irrelevant.

[ QUOTE ]
wpte will value at that level within a year or two.

[/ QUOTE ]

LMFAO...this may be the best one yet. You obviously do NOT follow this stock. They are currently losing money. They tried to produce a professional poker tour and market it to other stations and they have failed to do that. Their current deal with WSOP and the Travel Channel is not to their liking. They have competition with the WSOP. They have a saturated market that is not bringing in the advertising revenues that they had just a year ago. To top it all off they have a website that was late to the market, has been buggy, at peak hours has a few hundred people playing (and that includes the free tables) and can't accept money from americans (who make up roughly 70-80% of world market of online gamblers.)

Since you seem to think you know SOOOOO much about the subject...please educate me as to how WPTE is going to be a 700 million company in the next year or two, with a stock price of 36. Please, really, I'm dying to know.

I have no bone to pick here, I got out at 28 and took my profits. But I also can see a scam for what it is...they happen all the time. I really didn't think the SEC would get involved. People here are calling you a moron...I don't know you at all but from your other posts, you obviously are riding Doyle's jock for all you can...it would appear you can't be unbiased in your opinion.

Regardless...please educate me as to the future finances of WPTE. I am really looking forward to it.

memphis57 12-17-2005 07:38 PM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
[ QUOTE ]

No, but I can see him being retarded enough, to get involved with people who would, without any actual dishonest intent on his part.

Mack

[/ QUOTE ]

Without knowing Doyle but knowing a little about those situations, this is the explanation that best fits the known facts, IMO. That's assuming Doyle isn't a financial genius and would be unable on his own to say whether WPT was worth $700 mil or $300 mil. It could even be his whole group falls into that category and the money was made by wall street traders - but that's not likely. More likely, either one of his investors or, possibly, an advisor was playing a side game on his own. Part of the answer may lie in why the stock was worth 18 before the bid but 6 after. Was somebody accumulating prior?

Timer 12-17-2005 07:51 PM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
[ QUOTE ]
If the SEC is able to connect a large sale of stock to people he knows then he will be in a lot of trouble and he will probably do time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Like Lyle Berman?

Rudbaeck 12-17-2005 09:28 PM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
[ QUOTE ]
we shall see who the moron is. doyle will be cleared.

[/ QUOTE ]

You used to be cynical, now you're glorifying a person who makes a living parting fools and their money?

It's not exactly a stretch of the imagination to think that Doyle was in on the scam. Yes, it's easy to see that it raises flags. Yes, it's easy for most of us to see that this is an incredibly stupid thing to do. But still, people with degrees in law and finance try this exact trick all the time, and right about every civilized country has an agency devoted to nothing but tracking down these clowns.

This is a mistake that very intelligent people commit on near daily basis.

I've never met Doyle. I don't know much about him, but nothing in what I know makes me think him more unlikely than anyone else in manipulating stock prices for gain. Heck, this is a guy who brags about being able to fast talk people into making bigger and bigger bets until they are under such emotional strain that they start making mistakes. (This is basically his golf strategy, make the bets so large that the opponent, though of a lower handicap gets so stressed by the money riding on the shot that Doyle turns from a dog to a favorite. He routinely talks people into gambling way above their bankroll, just to cause them to make mistakes by which he can profit.)

This isn't exactly the most endearing image you can cultivate for yourself.

Yeah, I like what Doyle has done for poker. But I doubt the Vatican will be nominating him for sainthood any time soon. In fact all I know about Doyle is really that he is good at poker. From this I can't infer much, and certainly not that he is more likely than your average Masters_In_Economics guy to be an honest and law abiding businessman.

He's a human being. Not a saint, but a regular guy. A smart one, with a real talent for poker. But still, a human. It's a stupid mistake to try and manipulate a stock like this. But let's face it, most humans perform stupid mistakes routinely.

BassMasterK 12-17-2005 11:25 PM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
[ QUOTE ]
Part of the answer may lie in why the stock was worth 18 before the bid but 6 after. Was somebody accumulating prior?

[/ QUOTE ]

I can shed a little light on the 18 before, 6 after (of course all opinions but I followed the stock heavily until a month ago or so). First of all, the company was overvalued at 18, but there were a lot of people who were buying into the popularity of poker and saw this as a juggernaut that was going to be the king of poker. There was talk of a new wpte casino website. There was talk of them restructuring their deal with the Travel Channel. There was talk of a new poker show: Professional Poker Tour. The big one really though was the money they were going to rake in on that website. Also, they have the wpt brand with cards, poker sets, table tops, videos and the like.

After the offer fell through, people were not willing to speculate so much on the popularity aspect and were looking at income sheets. WPTE lost their auditors less than a month before quarterly reports were due. The auditing company said that the WPT casino was a gray area legally that they weren't comfortable with, the risk was not worth what they would get financially to be associated with WPTE. When you get dumped by your auditing company, it looks really bad and is usually a bad sign of things to come. LACO, their parent company was delisted for not having paperwork in on time (I think they also had auditor problems but I can't remember for sure). Then WPTE announced they were nearing a deal for broadcasting rights of the Professional Poker Tour, but then it fell through. Their attempt at working a new deal with the Travel Channel was not going well. The new website came out, but appeared to not be heavily advertised or announced with any fanfare. Only a few hundred people were on at peak hours and most of them were at free tables. Then it was frequently buggy and was either shut down, or only the few pay tables were up. The english used in the 'sorry we are not working' announcment on the site looked like it was written by a third grader. People lost confidence that a site that could not allow americans on the pay tables, and a site that used the British pound instead of the EU dollar was not going to get enough players to be successful.

You add all this together and you can see how shareholders became very cautious and that pushed the price down. The catalyst that got the ball rolling down the hill though was the Doyle bid.

Timer 12-18-2005 12:40 AM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
My take on this is somewhat different. A lot of people got on board the IPO. Others bought into it a while later. The show was popular, poker was everywhere, and the stock went up. The problem is that all of those holding a lot of stock can't all get out at once without sending it (a stock with no earnings by the way) into a nosedive. It's a thinly traded stock so you need some news to create interest.

In steps Doyle Brunson who announces a MAJOR buy-out at a RIDICULOUS price. The stock jumps on the news and all of the insiders are able to get out--at inflated prices. The average-joe-sucker who "bought on the news" gets left holding a worthless bag. As soon as it's discovered that there wasn't any real interest in this stock in the first place (and the fact that Doyle's bid was a sham) the stock starts to go back down where it belongs.

This all came to my attention one day when I was looking at charts. Out of curiosity I looked up the WPT stock chart and saw a very interesting pattern.

http://tinyurl.com/8yscc

I got very curious about the sudden run up on HUGE volume and then the subsequent decline. I got to thinking about it and did some research about when Doyle made his announcement. Well, it was no coincidence that the exact top of that chart is when Doyle made his buyout offer.

12-18-2005 01:39 AM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
Personally, I'm a little bit apprehensive about confidently declaring somebody is guilty before a conviction. Heck, not even all the facts are known. Doyle Brunson has previously conceded he's prone to making poor business decisions (independent of playing poker) and this quite possibly could be one of them?

Sadly, many posters seem delighted in this man's potential downfall. This leaves me confounded as Doyle's ruin could also negatively impact the poker community (which I assume these posters could belong to). My personal hope is that he's exonerated and the stock thrives instead of ultimately being delisted. I would like to see poker continue to grow and gain acceptance by ordinary Americans (and American politicians). Given Doyle's position and influence on poker, it seems self-defeating for enthusiasts to hope for his ruin. I fear a conviction would have a substantial and lasting negative impact that extends far beyond Doyle and a handful of Wall Street grifters.

JeffreyREBT "Wherein I don't promise to make you rich without trying, or even very trying very hard; I do promise to say things that will make you FEEL rich."

Shoe 12-18-2005 03:57 AM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
Unfortunately, I am pretty sure it's true.

The words "Doyle Brunson scam" bring back 29,100 hits on Google.

RikaKazak 12-18-2005 04:32 AM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
[ QUOTE ]
this was inevitable. only disclosure will settle this. said disclosure will sink or exonerate him. i sure hope it is exoneration.
[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope the truth comes out, wether it's sink or exonerate.

BassMasterK 12-18-2005 12:24 PM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
[ QUOTE ]
I hope the truth comes out, wether it's sink or exonerate.

[/ QUOTE ]

I couldn't agree with you more.

12-18-2005 01:06 PM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
[ QUOTE ]

This all came to my attention one day when I was looking at charts. Out of curiosity I looked up the WPT stock chart and saw a very interesting pattern.

http://tinyurl.com/8yscc

I got very curious about the sudden run up on HUGE volume and then the subsequent decline. I got to thinking about it and did some research about when Doyle made his announcement. Well, it was no coincidence that the exact top of that chart is when Doyle made his buyout offer.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're misinterpreting the chart. (I'm neither here nor there on the actual question, but thought I'd throw in a little trading info. . .)

There was no run-up in this stock. This was what's called a spike, or gapping up. Either overnight, or during a break in trading (when trading was temporarily frozen because of news being clarified), a lot of people put in orders to purchase. When trading re-opened, there were so many bids to buy at market that the running price gapped up, and that termendous volume hit all at once. Looking at the chart you provided, after the gap up on the news, the stock dove in massive trading. It's a little easier to see on the 6-month chart right now: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickch...eq=1&time=7
There it's easier to see that the stock gapped up overnight, as speculator digested the news, and the volume hit after.

Other general info:

Stock movements like what happened at the beginning of July are common on rumors or news. It's standard fare any time there's a rumor or news powerful enough to cause the floor to halt trading on a stock pending clarification. Investors who had built up positions in the stock in prior months at 10-20 would naturally take profits on such a spike, many of them from automated sell order pre-entered into computers. Other investors, who play stocks based on news, would be putting in buys like mad in speculation that the offer will go through, and drive the price up to $36. The speculators drove the price up, the rational market drove the price down. The result is huge volume.

Secondly, the impact of these Shenanigans was not $36 to $6, as some hav been saying. The news spiked the stock into the 25-30 range. After clarification, it fell to the 20-23 range, where it traded for several weeks after. The subsequent plummeting to $6 had nothing to do with the incident; it was a gradual correction probably having to do with the company's misfortunes.

Thirdly, buyout offers like this are generally made at generous premiums to value. Thinly traded stocks are not very liquid, so a spike is always expected, and a company with no hard assets is always difficult to appraise. If this were a manufacturing firm, it would be easy to set a hard value, and the premium would not be likely to be so out of line with assets, but this is a service firm with an unknown market future. Like internet stocks before the market understood the net, the potential for profit was huge, so a big premium to capture the company is not unusual.

It would be easy to conceive the following scenario;

1. Big investor sees the size of the WSOP crowd and decides to make a move.
2. Investor contacts Brunson to particpate as the face of the the offer.
3. Hasty decision are made in hopes of taking advantage of WSOP publicity.
4. The lawyers decide this hasty nonsense is unacceptable and a probably risk with the SEC, and pull out.
5. Buyer has remorse as his advisors point out the underlying company's weakness. Poker may be a sure thing, but the WPT doesn't look so hot as a company.
6. Bidders back down; chaos ensues.

I'm not saying that's what happened; I'm saying it's possible. It's equally possible that the big bidder accumulated a big position during June at prices of 18-23, and when the stock drooped to 17 in early July, they conspired to spike the stock so that they could unload without taking a big hit.

The investigation will likely tell; the question is what big investors acquired a lot BEFORE the spike and unloaded AFTER. If no related individuals made big profits (other than professional speculators who day-trade stocks like this all the time), then it's likely that there is no real conspiracy.

FlFishOn 12-18-2005 07:19 PM

Re: SEC probes Doyle
 
Granny gets her peepee whacked in 5 posts and no response? Musta finally kicked off.


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:10 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.