Pushing too hard or just right?
 

The original raiser in this hand is a total lag 40/20/1.5. His late postion raising standards are very thin however I havent seen too much of his play from earlier positions. The cold caller is a loose passive donkey.

Did I push too hard or put in the right amount of action?

Party Poker 15.00/30.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(10 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 caps</font>, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.67 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (11.33 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+2 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 caps</font>, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

River: (23.33 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 29.33 BB.

Re: Pushing too hard or just right?
 

I'd cap the river.

Re: Pushing too hard or just right?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd cap the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you put him on? After he 3-bets the river after capping preflop we can narrow him down to QQ or 99, but 99 might not cap preflop, might not 3 bet river, so QQ seems much more likely. Even if he had QQ or 99 with equal probability 50% each then capping the river would be neutral EV.

Re: Pushing too hard or just right?
 

I like your line. IMO, as an earlier poster said, capping the river is -EV. I like the raise/call RR on the river. Would AQ be that far of a reach, or KK or AA here? I'm thinking QQ is more likely, but I've seen KK and AA played the same here.

Re: Pushing too hard or just right?
 

I would just call the river. He capped the turn and came out firing on the river. KT and QQ are more likely than 99.

Re: Pushing too hard or just right?
 

I think you played it fine.

Re: Pushing too hard or just right?
 

You might consider ending the post with "hero raises..." as the knowledge that your opponent 3-bets may influence the answers.

The river raise is the only place I have any doubt. Yeah, he raises 20% of his hands, but is he really capping KT? Is he really going to give all this action with 1 pair? These seem pretty doubtful, so you have to believe he has either 99, which we don't know he'll cap, and QQ, which he surely will. Since you are offering 2:1 on the river raise, I think a call is in order.

-Eric

Re: Pushing too hard or just right?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would just call the river. He capped the turn and came out firing on the river. KT and QQ are more likely than 99.

[/ QUOTE ]

We beat KT. If you put KT in his hand range, you should raise, as there would then bet 16 KT's and 3 99's we beat, vs 3 QQ's we don't, making us better than 6:1 favorites.

good luck.
eric

Re: Pushing too hard or just right?
 

What could MP3 have called 4 bets on the turn and folded the river with? Not really relevant but I am curious can we put him on a hand that makes sense at all betting points?

I think we are missing a bunch on hands UTG could have assuming he is a 42% players. That's a HIGH number and 20% PFR! And he STILL has a PFAF of 1.5!
Certified maniac!!

He can certainly have:
AA
KK
KT
QQ
99
QJ
AQ
AJ
J9
T8suited
33

All you lose to is 33 and QQ. (If this were a 4 raise game my decision may be altered)

I cap the river.

Re: Pushing too hard or just right?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd cap the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you put him on? After he 3-bets the river after capping preflop we can narrow him down to QQ or 99, but 99 might not cap preflop, might not 3 bet river, so QQ seems much more likely. Even if he had QQ or 99 with equal probability 50% each then capping the river would be neutral EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

opponenet is 40/20/1.5

he doesn't think like you.

Barron