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12-17-2005 05:16 PM

Slow play or not?
5-5$ PL Omaha Hi, the following hand comes up.
4 Players are at the table, I'm on the button with:

A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

The first player limps, I bet the pot for 25$, everyone calls. The flop comes up:

2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

It's checked to me I just check.

Turn is a K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

The first player leads out with a 50$ bet, and it's folded to me. Now I know omaha hi is a bad game to slow play, but should I just smooth call this bet?
ALSO should I have checked the flop or bet at it? I'll reveal what happened after I hear some opinions, thanks.

12-17-2005 06:25 PM

Re: Slow play or not?
I almost always am firing at the pot on the flop but I'm ALWAYS going nutso on the turn here. What do you do if an ace four five or six non club come off on the river if you flat call and somebody goes nutso?

If he's got a set you are going to stack him (well MOST of the time anyway) don't risk a scare card that he might shut down on.

joewatch 12-17-2005 08:25 PM

Re: Slow play or not?
Giving the stacksizes would also be helpful. Assuming 100bb, I wouldn't slow play but make it like $150 to go. No need to push him out of the pot.

12-17-2005 08:53 PM

Re: Slow play or not?
Good point on the stacksizes. 150 to go is too small of a raise in this pot but at least it won't get yourself stuck if a bad card comes off on the river.

12-18-2005 12:20 AM

Re: Slow play or not?
Sorry guys forgot to mention the stack sizes. I have 650$, the other player who bet into me has 400$.

12-18-2005 02:13 AM

Re: Slow play or not?
The only hand you'r worried about here is a 456x draw. If he called the raise and is betting here with such a hand I'd guess he has a flush draw too. maybe even a straight flush draw. Let's a ssume the worst case scenario and see how the numbers turn out.

Worst case: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (the last card doesn't matter very much no matter what it is).

This gives him outs all 11 potential (3 aces, 2 4s, 3 5s, and 3 6s).

40 remaining cards: 11 are his, 29 are yours. 10 cards give him a winning straight. One card gives him a str8 flush. 1 gives him a flush and you boat. 6 give you a better flush. 2 cards give him trips and you a boat. 20 cards leave him with a lousy pair of 7s.

If you call, pot = $200 and your opponent has $400 left (maybe $325 if 400 was his stack before the hand).

If he catches a SF (1/40), he doubles up. You lose $450 relative to a turn fold.

If he completely misses (20/40). You win the pot. That's +$150 relative to a turn fold.

If he makes a non-nut hand (trip 7s, or a lower flush - 9/40) let's say he calls a 1/4 pot value bet. You make $200 relative to a fold on the turn.

If he hits his straight (10/40) let's say you call the same 1/4 pot value bet. You lose $100 relative to a turn fold.

Net EV is :
-450/40 + 150/2 + 200*9/40 - 100/4 = +$84

If you pot it to $250 now he either folds (+150 for you) or call. Let's say you'll call any $200 river bet of his and he'll only call yours if he makes some kind of hand (trip 7s or better).

9/40 you get his stack + the 150 in the pot = +550
11/40 you lose his stack plus the 50 call = -450
20/40 you win the pot on the river but he doesn't call = +350.

Net EV = +$150.

So in the long run you make the same $ if he calls or folds. Obviously, the raise is better if he's on a draw. Of course you didn't need these calulations to tell you that. The important thing to show is that a slow play loses you roughly $66 for every 11 outs he holds in the long run. Let's say $6 per out.

OK. Now let's say he has the best hand for you. One in which he's drawing dead to 1 card and will pay you off a value bet even if a flush hits. These are the types of hands you want him to have if you're going to slowplay. If you pot bet here against such a hand you either win $150 now (he folds) or you get most to all of his stack if he calls (let's say an average of +$450).

The best slowplay scenario for you is that he'll fold to any raise but will call the pot on the river. Maybe he'll even call a river re-raise after a blocking/probe bet but let's say that balances out with folds to keep things simple. One card let's him double up. 39 lose him an extra $200 on the river.

net EV for you = $-450/40 + 350*39/40 = +330

To get the same EV he only has to call your turn pot bet 60% of the time. Further, note that if he'll only call a $100 river bet your slowplay EV drops to only $230. To get that EV with a turn pot raise he only has to call 25% of the time.

So I say a slowplay is bad here. You have to at least raise him 1/2 pot extra to make him pay for a big draw. But since more than 1/4 of the deck will leave you with a tough river situation I say pot it now. As a I showed above, the top draw might have enough implied odds to make anything smaller +EV call for him.

BluffTHIS! 12-18-2005 03:56 AM

Re: Slow play or not?
I would raise like acorns said in the situation as played.

The better situation for slowplaying would be if there had been a bet on the flop and hero called with an overpair+nutflush draw+wheel draw (wheel draw might be good against a low set). In that case when hero hits the K on the turn, his hand is going to be very disguised unless the flush comes, and with position can often get a checked river if he wishes if a straight card gets there. But when a straight doesn't come and he was up against a lower set, the other player isn't going to have a clue most likely leading to a bigger payoff on the river.

dibbs 12-18-2005 05:10 AM

Re: Slow play or not?
Pump it up.

Good post Silent

12-18-2005 07:48 PM

Re: Slow play or not?
The general consensus is to pot it, and that's exactly what I did. The player who bet into me went into a long thought process but released his hand. I didn't want to bet small because I felt it might commit him to the pot, or he would feel committed, and might draw out on me. I realize that I should have made a continuation bet on the flop, since I had taken the lead preflop, and the board was not overly threatening. That was a mistake.

I assume he was on a straight draw, or non nut flush draw, and I didn't want to let him catch. I was hoping he had a smaller set and would move all in and pay me off (unless he hit miracle quads, but that's a risk we all have to take). Whatever he had he didn't see the river.

BTW, Great post on the math behind the hand Silent that was a very good read.

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