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-   -   3 game teaser LOCK (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=343795)

09-25-2005 12:14 AM

3 game teaser LOCK
 
teaseing 12 YES I said 12---
All early games
Rams +3.5
Eagles +2
Bengals +7
Am I nuts or are these LOCKS

craig r 09-25-2005 12:31 AM

Re: 3 game teaser LOCK
 
[ QUOTE ]
teaseing 12 YES I said 12---
All early games
Rams +3.5
Eagles +2
Bengals +7
Am I nuts or are these LOCKS

[/ QUOTE ]

They are not locks. Do you think if PHI loses, they lose by more than 2? I would never do a 3 team 12 pt teaser (what odds did you have to lay), but I assume you would still never cross the 0 in these either.

craig

flatline 09-25-2005 12:39 AM

Re: 3 game teaser LOCK
 
I would say you are nuts.

09-25-2005 12:39 AM

Re: 3 game teaser LOCK
 
the odds arent great AT ALL but I HIGHLY doubt
Oakland goes into Philly and even makes it a game..Stl will not only win but crush tenn.
and cinn. well nuff said..
PLUS im + in all 3 I feel this is a very safe bet..hope im right..thanks for quick response

MCS 09-25-2005 12:41 AM

Re: 3 game teaser LOCK
 
These look like 10-point teasers, not 12. If they ARE 12, then you're getting crazy lines and should be betting heavily on the dog in all three of these games since you're getting a very good price that is not widely available.

Anyway, I don't see the value here. The idea that they're "locks" is laughable, so if the only other alternative is "you are nuts" then I pick that.

09-25-2005 12:44 AM

Re: 3 game teaser LOCK
 
nuts...what game there looks bad getting points...

humdinger 09-25-2005 12:46 AM

Re: 3 game teaser LOCK
 
[ QUOTE ]
teaseing 12 YES I said 12---
All early games
Rams +3.5
Eagles +2
Bengals +7
Am I nuts or are these LOCKS

[/ QUOTE ]

What kind of juice are you laying on 12 pt. teasers?

Like Craig said, there are no locks. The Rams have struggled (yes, I know, on the road), but Tennessee looked decent vs. Baltimore. Tennessee has often been able to put up bushles of points, and could find a way to beat St. Louis. It's unlikely, but possible.

And, going with what Craig said, the money line on the eagles isn't -1000000. They can lose, and if they do, it'll most likely by at least 2.

Lastly, with the bengals. You say they look good, I say they've only played horrible teams. You say the bears are horrible, I say they've averaged 30 point wins at home so far this year.

Do I think your teaser will win? Yes, I do. But without knowing the juice, it's difficult to say I like the teaser.

hd

MCS 09-25-2005 01:32 AM

Re: 3 game teaser LOCK
 
[ QUOTE ]
nuts...what game there looks bad getting points...

[/ QUOTE ]

Each one is individually a favorite to win. But let's say you have a 75% chance of winning each. That's pretty good, right? If so, you're winning this bet about 42% of the time, which is bad.

Again, where are you getting these lines of Rams -8.5, Eagles -10, Bengals -5? I would want to bet the other side on all three.

craig r 09-25-2005 01:44 AM

Re: 3 game teaser LOCK
 
[ QUOTE ]
Again, where are you getting these lines of Rams -8.5, Eagles -10, Bengals -5? I would want to bet the other side on all three.

[/ QUOTE ]

No kidding. I think they are Ten point teasers. I know places have these in NBA and they are all 10 point. I think, but not positive, you have to lay 120. I don't even think any of these have a 75% chance by themselves. Maybe the bengals and rams because they cross key numbers. But, I really don't think PHI will lose by 1 point only if they lose (I am almost positive that a tie loses...and 2 is not super common, but it could happen).

craig

MCS 09-25-2005 03:07 AM

Re: 3 game teaser LOCK
 
[ QUOTE ]
I think they are Ten point teasers.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do too, but he/she didn't respond to my last post asking about that.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't even think any of these have a 75% chance by themselves.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I have no clue. I was just pointing out that even if they do, it's still a bad bet.


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