2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anything?
 

Does anyone know if the Patriots can get the 3 seed in the AFC if they win out? It is possible for them to be 11-5 and Cinci to be 11-5. Also Pitt will either be 11-5 or 10-6. Who has the inside track for the 3 seed?

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

i glanced in the paper today and read the pats can get the #3. i dont know the specifics though.

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

Pats gets the #3 seed w/ 2 wins and a Cincy loss.

interesting question is, would the Patriots rather be #4 and play Jax and potentially Indy, or be #3 and play Pittsburgh then potentially Denver.

given how Pittsburgh is playing, I think I'd rather have the quasi bye vs Jax, then have to win 1 or 2 very tough games.

as the #3, they will need to beat 3 good teams to make the SB

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

If New England wins 2 & Cincy losses next week, New England is the #3 seed since they'd have the better Coference record.

Pittsburgh can finish no better than 6th with a win a Chiefs loss or a Chargers win. The rest of the AFC is set.

I haven't looked at the NFC scenarios, it's a lot messier past the top 2.

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

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Pats gets the #3 seed w/ 2 wins and a Cincy loss.

interesting question is, would the Patriots rather be #4 and play Jax and potentially Indy, or be #3 and play Pittsburgh then potentially Denver.

given how Pittsburgh is playing, I think I'd rather have the quasi bye vs Jax, then have to win 1 or 2 very tough games.

as the #3, they will need to beat 3 good teams to make the SB

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Quasi-bye? I think they'd win the game as well but everyone is treating the Jaguars as a terrible team that the Pats would have no problems with. This is just not the case.

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

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Pats gets the #3 seed w/ 2 wins and a Cincy loss.

interesting question is, would the Patriots rather be #4 and play Jax and potentially Indy, or be #3 and play Pittsburgh then potentially Denver.

given how Pittsburgh is playing, I think I'd rather have the quasi bye vs Jax, then have to win 1 or 2 very tough games.

as the #3, they will need to beat 3 good teams to make the SB

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Quasi-bye? I think they'd win the game as well but everyone is treating the Jaguars as a terrible team that the Pats would have no problems with. This is just not the case.

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Jags will easily be the worst AFC playoff team. Given that the Pats will have to win 3 games, the easiest playoff route involves the Jags.

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

If I were a Patriots fan, I'd want no part of the Colts until absolutely necessary. They own Pittsburgh and would get them at home. Pitt-Denver is far superior to Jax-Indy IMO.

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

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If I were a Patriots fan, I'd want no part of the Colts until absolutely necessary. They own Pittsburgh and would get them at home. Pitt-Denver is far superior to Jax-Indy IMO.

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Yes, Pitt-Denver is far superior to Jax Indy. However, I'm assuming that any path to the SB involves the Colts.

So, I think Pitt-Denver-Indy is a worse path than Jax-Indy-Denver/Cincy/Pitt. Obviously, being #3 means you might not have to face the Colts (unlikely) and a better chance of hosting a championship game (unlikely)

I said this in an another thread, but this is the deepest AFC field I remember in a long time.

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

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If I were a Patriots fan, I'd want no part of the Colts until absolutely necessary. They own Pittsburgh and would get them at home. Pitt-Denver is far superior to Jax-Indy IMO.

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Yes, Pitt-Denver is far superior to Jax Indy. However, I'm assuming that any path to the SB involves the Colts.

So, I think Pitt-Denver-Indy is a worse path than Jax-Indy-Denver/Cincy/Pitt. Obviously, being #3 means you might not have to face the Colts (unlikely) and a better chance of hosting a championship game (unlikely)

I said this in an another thread, but this is the deepest AFC field I remember in a long time.

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Indy losing their first game and enabling the Pats to not only avoid the Colts, but get home field in the AFC Championship game is such a huge advantage, that it only needs to happen IMO a small % of the time to prefer that route. Say it's Indy vs. Cinci in round 2. The Colts would be....what?....11 point favorites? That's like 20% range chance of the Bengals winning. That's HUGE from the Patriots standpoint IMO.

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

I suppose one could run a quick scenario analysis based on expected spreads and the corresponding moneylines. I'm too lazy to run the EV equations, but it could be interesting.