15/30 JJ
 

UTG+1 is a well-known 2+2er. MP1 is a 60/5/1.5 fish who I know would have raised the flop with a Q.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: I am CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">I 3-bet</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (10.66 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP1 calls, I call.

Turn: (6.83 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">I raise</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

River: (12.83 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">I bet</font>

Re: 15/30 JJ
 

What do you expect to call you for value?

- Jim

Re: 15/30 JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
What do you expect to call you for value?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a valuebluff. The fish will call with any pair here.

Re: 15/30 JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
What do you expect to call you for value?

- Jim

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a valuebluff if I'm reading this correctly.

Re: 15/30 JJ
 

I think it's very unlikely that your opponent will fold the winning hand 1-in-13 times even in a "protected" pot but I'm probably off-base here. edumacate me.

- Jim

Re: 15/30 JJ
 

I don't think UTG+1 will fold a better hand often enough.

Re: 15/30 JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think UTG+1 will fold a better hand often enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think if he is calling the turn raise then he is likely going to SD. I'm kinda unsure about the rest of the hand as well, I'll have to take a closer look...

Re: 15/30 JJ
 

I really don't like your river bet. UTG+1 appears to have you beat and is not going to lay it down as the pot is so big.

SGS

Re: 15/30 JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
I really don't like your river bet. UTG+1 appears to have you beat and is not going to lay it down as the pot is so big.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if he reads my raise as a free showdown raise and doesn't expect me to fire again? What if he thinks I'm getting crazy with AK and calls with 88/99? What if he folds JJ? What about the fact that I don't have to fold AQ/KQ that often?

Re: 15/30 JJ
 

My experience with most 2+2 types is this donk is always a queen. If you said who I might have a better read (I might not too). But I think you are underestimating how often you are beat. My default play would be to muck on the flop.

-DeathDonkey