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-   -   AK probability of 4 card draw (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=407430)

 12-29-2005 10:43 PM

AK probability of 4 card draw

i've found the probability of flopping a straight is.33%
with pocket AK, but haven't found the probability of flopping a 4 out straight draw?

 12-29-2005 10:57 PM

Re: AK probability of 4 card draw

You have AK and want to make a straight draw. To do that you must draw two of the three missing cards (QJT) and any other card except the card that makes a straight.

So, the probability is C(3;2) * C(4;1) * C(4;1) * C(46;1) / C(50;3) ~ 11.2%

 12-30-2005 12:12 AM

Re: AK probability of 4 card draw

OK so the probability of flopping a 4 card straight holding AK is 11.2%. am i right here holding JT (suited or not) flopping a 8 out open end straight is 7.21%, so does that mean you have around a 3% better chance of flopping the 4 out draw over the 8 out draw, if thats the case a simple yes will work cause i dont think i have the capable understanding of how the heck to to read all the math stuff that tells me why its that way but i can understand a simple yes. thank you-doodleky

 BruceZ 12-30-2005 12:26 AM

Re: AK probability of 4 card draw

[ QUOTE ]
am i right here holding JT (suited or not) flopping a 8 out open end straight is 7.21%

[/ QUOTE ]

No, it's 9.6% for flopping an 8-out straight draw with a suited JT (including 0.6% for double gutshots), and 0.1% or so higher for JTo since you don't have to exclude any made flushes.

 12-30-2005 12:47 AM

Re: AK probability of 4 card draw

thanks bruce for the 9.6%
i've got some much writen down from various sites, and sometimes i find different % on things, anyways i'm looking at that 7.21%, thats going to the trash!!! putting all it together, and wanting to make sure i got the answers,
and I KNOW YOU AND A.B. ARE RIGHT!! learned how to look up
peoples posts and read all yours and aarons, hope you guys never get tired of helping so much to those of us(me)who have so little to offer has. again thank you

 12-30-2005 11:51 AM

Re: AK probability of 4 card draw

[ QUOTE ]
OK so the probability of flopping a 4 card straight holding AK is 11.2%. am i right here holding JT (suited or not) flopping a 8 out open end straight is 7.21%, so does that mean you have around a 3% better chance of flopping the 4 out draw over the 8 out draw, if thats the case a simple yes will work cause i dont think i have the capable understanding of how the heck to to read all the math stuff that tells me why its that way but i can understand a simple yes. thank you-doodleky

[/ QUOTE ]

YES. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

11.2% if you hold AK offsuit, if you have AK suited you must subtract a little because of a possible flush. This is left as an exercise for the student.

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