3rd barrel against massive donkey
 

Button is like 85/10/1 over a decent sample, with a WTSD of like 52. He plays every hand and seriously loves donkbetting. He keeps sucking out on me.

I know the rule of thumb is don't bluff the unbluffable, but, two things:

1) The only street he had folded yet was the river.
2) This could be a value bet.

How's this?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls, Button calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG folds, Button calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

River: (6.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>...

Re: 3rd barrel against massive donkey
 

It looked quite lag at first, but I think it's fine.

Edited to add: Referring to river bet.

Re: 3rd barrel against massive donkey
 

Check the turn and bet the river. Why bet the turn if you know he will not fold? There is enough value in a river bet given the read, but the turn bet sucks IMO.

Re: 3rd barrel against massive donkey
 

[ QUOTE ]
Check the turn and bet the river. Why bet the turn if you know he will not fold? There is enough value in a river bet given the read, but the turn bet sucks IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's a good chance that the turn bet is for value.

Re: 3rd barrel against massive donkey
 

Is raisng QJo from the SB vs two limpers (1 CS) standard for you?

Re: 3rd barrel against massive donkey
 

Yes. Especially with Button in the hand.

Re: 3rd barrel against massive donkey
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Check the turn and bet the river. Why bet the turn if you know he will not fold? There is enough value in a river bet given the read, but the turn bet sucks IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's a good chance that the turn bet is for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, IMHO there's a very good chance that this bet is for value.

edit: River too, really; there's not a very good chance he'll pay off but a decent chance that we're ahead here. Most of the winning hands that will call a river bet would have made themselves known earlier on.

Re: 3rd barrel against massive donkey
 

meh I don't like it. Smells like tilt.

Re: 3rd barrel against massive donkey
 

[ QUOTE ]
meh I don't like it. Smells like tilt.

[/ QUOTE ]
'Smells like tilt' doesn't convince me of anything. Could you elaborate?

Re: 3rd barrel against massive donkey
 

36,080 games 0.361 secs 99,944 games/sec

Board: 2h 6c Ah 6h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 36.0685 % 32.23% 03.84% { QcJd }
Hand 2: 63.9315 % 60.09% 03.84% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 73s+, 62s+, 52s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J3o+, T5o+, 95o+, 85o+, 75o+, 65o, 54o }

This is quite generous and you're not doing to well. Since his WTSD is 50 we can probably assume he's folding some of this crap on the flop. Therefore, I wouldn't bet the turn. If he bets, fold. If it's checked though and you get that river, you need to assess his looseness/aggressiveness. Will he bluff more then call. You can not bet/call this IMO. Therefore, if you can't trust his raise, c/c. My default would be c/c.

Re: 3rd barrel against massive donkey
 

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Therefore, I wouldn't bet the turn. If he bets, fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not good against this opponent, IMO.

Perhaps I didn't make my read clear enough. He will bet if I check. He donkbets more than anyone I've ever seen. He will bet with nothing, or next to nothing.

Example.

I have AQ or something. Flop QT4. He donks, I raise. Turn: 5. He donks, I raise. River: 4. He donks again. He has K4o.

He has donkbluffed the river with 8 high against me.

When you also consider the fact that he plays 85% of his hands and takes tons of them to showdown unimproved, check/folding QJo on the turn here is not a good plan.

Am I wrong?

Re: 3rd barrel against massive donkey
 

Then get a showdown value hand like Q9+ and get to a showdown against him no matter what. If you improve, bet and raise. If not, call down. I can't see any other way to play against these kind of opponents.

Re: 3rd barrel against massive donkey
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Therefore, I wouldn't bet the turn. If he bets, fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not good against this opponent, IMO.

Perhaps I didn't make my read clear enough. He will bet if I check. He donkbets more than anyone I've ever seen. He will bet with nothing, or next to nothing.

Example.

I have AQ or something. Flop QT4. He donks, I raise. Turn: 5. He donks, I raise. River: 4. He donks again. He has K4o.

He has donkbluffed the river with 8 high against me.

When you also consider the fact that he plays 85% of his hands and takes tons of them to showdown unimproved, check/folding QJo on the turn here is not a good plan.

Am I wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

Against this opponent then it's okay. I'd still prefer to have A7+ or K7+ but QJo would be okay.

I also assume that he doesn't raise unless he has something so you let your Queen high go if he raises?

Re: 3rd barrel against massive donkey
 

I like it all the way. I hope you just sucked out on his T2o, and he'll probably still call with that.

But yeah we're folding to a river raise, right?

Re: 3rd barrel against massive donkey
 

[ QUOTE ]
I also assume that he doesn't raise unless he has something so you let your Queen high go if he raises?

[/ QUOTE ]

I only saw him raise a few times, and he showed down some strong hands each time he did. At the time this hand went down, I don't think I had seen him raise yet. If he's gonna bluff, it's going to be a donkbluff. Or a bluff-call.

He hadn't checkraised either.

Results:

He thought for a long time and called with king high, no kicker. His hand was good.

He eventually went broke, of course, but I didn't get any of the 50ish bets he dropped during the session.

I think there may be merit to check/calling the turn and donking the river here. But in any case, I think betting the river is probably correct, or a small mistake. I think he folds K high (or calls with worse than Q high) just about enough to make it worth it.

Later in the session, he actually did fold the flop a few times... of course I tended to have a huge hand when he did this, omfg, rigged.

Re: 3rd barrel against massive donkey
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Therefore, I wouldn't bet the turn. If he bets, fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not good against this opponent, IMO.

Perhaps I didn't make my read clear enough. He will bet if I check. He donkbets more than anyone I've ever seen. He will bet with nothing, or next to nothing.

Example.

I have AQ or something. Flop QT4. He donks, I raise. Turn: 5. He donks, I raise. River: 4. He donks again. He has K4o.

He has donkbluffed the river with 8 high against me.

When you also consider the fact that he plays 85% of his hands and takes tons of them to showdown unimproved, check/folding QJo on the turn here is not a good plan.

Am I wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

My problem is the board and the pot size. You're beaten a lot here already and your hand is extremely vulnerable. If you are beaten, you're often drawing very thin. In addition, you have to put 2 more BB into the pot. I think there's value in just giving up here. I could be wrong. It might be a little +EV, but even the slightest thing could swing it if it is. For example, if this guy ever checks through worse hands on the river (assuming you don't bet, which would be the case on most rivers) that makes this situation much worse for you.