A Set, Two pushes, do I have the odds to fill up?
 

Hi All,

I need a maths person here!

0.5/1 NLHE stars, 6 Handed
Stacks are:
Hero $150, SB $26 BB $38 (approx)

All fold to me, I pick up 44 on the button and raise to $3. SB calls and BB min raises back again to $5 total. All call.

Flop is 432r. SB bets $3, BB raises to $9, I call (to both trap and get away if needed) and the SB calls the $6.

Turn is 5. Sb goes all in for $12, BB raises all in for an extra $12 or so, making it about $25 to call for a total pot of about $100.

I'm almost positive I am beat at this point with one or both having an ace.

Assuming they have me beat do i have the odds to call, in the chance of either filling up, or a 6 dropping on the river to split?

Cheers,

Jon

Re: A Set, Two pushes, do I have the odds to fill up?
 

With no implied odds, I'd say no:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1403697
pokenum -h 4d 4c - as 3d - 5d 6d -- 2d 3c 4s 5h
Holdem Hi: 42 enumerated boards containing 4s 3c 2d 5h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
4c 4d 8 19.05 31 73.81 3 7.14 0.214
As 3d 0 0.00 39 92.86 3 7.14 0.024
6d 5d 31 73.81 8 19.05 3 7.14 0.762

Re: A Set, Two pushes, do I have the odds to fill up?
 

Shove the flop on these clowns.

Re: A Set, Two pushes, do I have the odds to fill up?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Shove the flop on these clowns.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: A Set, Two pushes, do I have the odds to fill up?
 

Can't call now, you're f'ed.

[ QUOTE ]
Shove the flop on these clowns.

[/ QUOTE ]

That would have fixed all your problems, especially playing against such short stacks. Let them be the stupid ones calling with limited outs.

Just because I'm curious, tell me one of them turned over an overpair like JJ or something gay.

Re: A Set, Two pushes, do I have the odds to fill up?
 

[ QUOTE ]


All fold to me, I pick up 44 on the button and raise to $3. SB calls and BB min raises back again to $5 total. All call.



[/ QUOTE ]
Those are aces.

Re: A Set, Two pushes, do I have the odds to fill up?
 

BB has an overpair, SB prob has the ace...

you prob have 14 outs or aprox 30% chance to win outright and I think you got BB beat (unless he has AA, but u still have outs). I prob make a crying call.

Re: A Set, Two pushes, do I have the odds to fill up?
 

Dude stop being a moron slowplay trapper and POOOOOOOOOOOOOOSH that flop.

Results
 

FWIW

SB turned over A2 and BB turned over AA (i thought this anyway)

I made a CRYYYYIIING call and the river brought a 6 for a chop.

FWIW, pushing on the flop is an option - some might say the ONLY option considering their chip stacks.

I disagree in general, but on reflection with these stack sizes, I should have shoved - they were calling anyway.

However, with deeper stacks, not always such a good play IMO.

Cheers,

Jon

Re: A Set, Two pushes, do I have the odds to fill up?
 

I am going to take the six out and a split pot out of the equation to simplify this

You have 10 outs: 3 2s, 3 3s, 1 4, and 3 5s
You are a 21.7% favorite (3.6:1) with one card to come
You have to call $25 to win $100 giving you 4:1 odds

Still a Call IMO