Am I really \"protecting\" my 2nd pair/nut flush draw?
 

Hello. This is from a nine-handed $2/4 Party game. I have only been at the table for six hands, and thus have little in the way of reads (I know, I know). I will say that so far most flops had four or five people, and that the average pot size was around 8BB.

Um, and I saw a guy bluff-raise the turn with ace high. He's not in this hand. Hope that helps.

Anyway, here's the deal:

I am UTG+1 with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. UTG, I, button, SB, and BB see the flop for one bet each.

Flop (5 SB): 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Nice. SB, BB, UTG check to me. I bet. Button, SB, UTG call.

Turn (4.5 BB): T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] SB checks, UTG bets.

This is where I am debating what to do. My first instinct was to think that I'm behind a ten and I should just call. It didn't seem that I care a whole lot if I leave hands in that I'm beating, so I don't know if there's any value in raising to protect my hand here.

Plus, any card I spike that improves my hand (heart, nine, ace) won't cause any hand that's behind to beat me, and a lot of those hands would pay me off on the river (e.g., A6).

On the other hand, if someone has a T, I have (at most) 14 outs, and so I can't really raise for value. Or is it important for me to make a 6 or 2 fold? I suspect a T is not folding here.

I guess I feel like this will be easy to play if I improve my hand, but if I'm behind, I'm not sure the raise does a lot for me. So I wasn't sure if I should do it.

Thanks to all.

Re: Am I really \"protecting\" my 2nd pair/nut flush draw?
 

just call
if no flush card comes on the river - call


if a flush card comes bet [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Am I really \"protecting\" my 2nd pair/nut flush draw?
 

Can you tell me why you think someone has a T? Did they show it to you? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Bet. You've got 2PTK + nut flush draw.

Rob

Re: Am I really \"protecting\" my 2nd pair/nut flush draw?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Can you tell me why you think someone has a T? Did they show it to you? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Bet. You've got 2PTK + nut flush draw.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

You mean raise. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
Yeah I will raise here about 99.2% of the time.

Brad

Re: Am I really \"protecting\" my 2nd pair/nut flush draw?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Can you tell me why you think someone has a T? Did they show it to you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Since you said "bet" and not "raise," I'm not sure if you realized that UTG bet into me after check-calling the flop. That bet out of nowhere looks like it could be a T or better.

I realize that my hand is strong, but if UTG were to show me a T, I would just call, right? So there's some probability with which UTG holds a T that makes a raise wrong, and maybe my assessment exceeds that probability.

That's why this is a situation where I wonder if my instinct to raise is flawed. I suppose UTG could also be betting a draw.

I know my hand is good, but somehow the autoraise just seems wrong.

Re: Am I really \"protecting\" my 2nd pair/nut flush draw?
 

If you are planning on calling the river unimproved, raising is definitely better.

Re: Am I really \"protecting\" my 2nd pair/nut flush draw?
 

I would just call on the turn and call on the river if you don't improve your hand.

Re: Am I really \"protecting\" my 2nd pair/nut flush draw?
 

Yes sir, you are protecting your hand by raising this turn, almost surely button and/or sb will fold so you're going heads up into the river with a solid hand.

Not only are you knocking out players that could beat you here, you are most likely buying yourself a free showdown unimproved.

Re: Am I really \"protecting\" my 2nd pair/nut flush draw?
 

there's a lot of things UTG could be betting with besides a T, and even against a T, you've got a lot of outs. a flush draw, overcards with a gutshot, some combination of those two, 88 or 77, etc. etc.

I'm assuming you just neglected to mention that BB is still in this pot...

So the question is: do you want to build a pot hoping to improve on the river (or a blank that will let you call down) and encourage everyone to come along with you... or do you raise and hope to thin the field a bit. The answer is the latter...

It's a large enough pot to be worth taking down, now, and certainly on the river... not raising gives virtually everyone correct odds to call as well, and potentially draw out on you. You want to make it as incorrect as possible for them to make their longshot draws, and to clear up outs (overcards, anyone with a 6 or 2, etc.). And with as many outs as you have, you're ok with calls... in this size pot 14 outs is a lot to have even if you are behind... calling makes it increasingly likely that if you are ahead, someone else can catch up.

Re: Am I really \"protecting\" my 2nd pair/nut flush draw?
 

What makes a raise better than a call on the turn here is his position relative to the bettor.

1) There are two players left to act, which will likely fold to a two bet but probably call one.

2) UTG might have the ten or better, he might be betting he flush draw, he might have a straight draw, a raise here will likely buy a free showdown, since UTG is first to act.

So for the same price as calling the turn and river, you get to knock out two players and get a free showdown.

Re: Am I really \"protecting\" my 2nd pair/nut flush draw?
 

[ QUOTE ]
So for the same price as calling the turn and river,

[/ QUOTE ]
Now, wait a second. It's only the same price if he doesn't have to pay any more when he doesn't improve. Are you saying that he should fold if he's re-raised? Of course not. What if the river's a blank and UTG bets? I agree with your analysis, but you can't really say opening himself up twice to bets doesn't cost anything.

Anyway, I (and clearly MCS) thought the overcalls were more valuable than you guys. You've convinced me, though. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
-Sam

Re: Am I really \"protecting\" my 2nd pair/nut flush draw?
 

Thanks for the replies.

I think that I'd have been more confident about the raise if I had been sure that: (1) I wouldn't get 3-bet on the turn, and (2) I could get a free showdown if I didn't improve. I wasn't all that positive about either (1) or (2). I also thought the overcalls could be valuable, especially if I was just knocking out dominated hands.

In the actual hand, I decided to raise to knock out players, and I think this was a good decision but for the wrong reason. The button and SB folded. UTG called.

River: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] UTG bets, I raise, UTG calls. UTG has T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and MHIG. Thank you river.

Re: Am I really \"protecting\" my 2nd pair/nut flush draw?
 

Raise, You've got 14 outs to 2 pair or better and you've already got a decent hand that might be best. Check behind on the river if you don't improve but with that many outs, and a semistrong hand, I'd like to put some pressure on people.