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-   -   Top set on one flush board, how do I play this? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=317056)

ludo72 08-17-2005 10:57 AM

Top set on one flush board, how do I play this?
 
Party Poker (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Villain has $44, Hero covers. BB = $0.50

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, Villain calls $2, 2 folds, BB calls $1.50

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero bets $5, Villain raises to $10, BB folds, Hero ...?

Villain had been calling lots of my raises and then folded on the flop to my continuation bet so I had started raising him with trash and he kept calling and folding. The table in general was very weak/tight and I had been playing pretty wildly this far expecting someone to make a stand sooner or later. So what's my play here?

djoyce003 08-17-2005 11:06 AM

Re: Top set on one flush board, how do I play this?
 
I'd push. You are probably ahead, if you aren't you have full house outs. I'd suspect villain is on a draw over half the time here....probably way over half the time. Option b is to call and push the flop if it's a non spade....or if it pairs the board you can bet small to lead him on. I'm for getting it all in now in case he has a smaller set or lame two pair hand that a spade would kill your action on.

subzero 08-17-2005 11:30 AM

Re: Top set on one flush board, how do I play this?
 
There's $21 in the pot and villain has $32 left. If you push, seems like villain will call.

Villain's possible hands (your chance of winning)
flush draw: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]x (63-70%)
flopped flush/SF draw: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (33%)
2 pair, lower set (93%)

You're a 2:1 dog against the worst possible scenario (flopped flush). You're getting 1.6:1 if you push and he calls. Not the correct odds against a flopped flush, but he has a wider range of hands than that (hands where you are a big favorite). I think you need to push.

ludo72 08-18-2005 07:13 AM

Re: Top set on one flush board, how do I play this?
 
Does everyone think that this is either a push or fold situation?

I didn't think Villain would be the type of player to bet his draws, or even less raise them, so I decided that protecting my hand was not the number one priority here. Ofcourse he might have had a hand like AsQx but I took the risk and just called him down expecting to either see a flopped flush, two pair or a smaller set. He put me all-in on the river after I had called a pot sized bet on the turn and he flipped over his K9s flopped flush.

Is my line ok? If the fourth flush card had hit and he would be still betting strong I might have considered folding, but as the hand played out I can't think anything wrong with calling down. If I push the flop I'm almost guaranteened to fold all the hands I beat and get called by the flopped flush so for me this resembled a WA/WB situation. Opinions?


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