Bubble squeaker...
 

4 handed, 2 microstacks of which i am one.

SB=470
BB=630 <--Hero
MP= alot
Button = alot

Blinds 150/300...so after posting blinds, i have t330, and SB has t320...i am dealt 77. Button bets, SB folds.

Do i call?

If i call and win, i likely ITM, but if i fold, i post SB and have a little left..so, the SB will be more or less allin on his BB.

ANyone want to give a gut-feeling line here? I'm just playing for 3rd. The button wasn't puppetmaster or anything, but i'd put him on top 50% of hands or so.

Re: Bubble squeaker...
 

I think you have to fold.

Re: Bubble squeaker...
 

Good post.

I call. Either way, you have about a 55-60% chance of finishing ITM (for folding --> I think you outlast the other shortie slightly more than half the time; for calling --> you are about 55-60% against button's range). I favor calling because all other things equal, it gives you an actual playable stack if you make the money.

Re: Bubble squeaker...
 

This is actually a tough hand. The thing about folding is that if you fold again on the SB (getting 3:1 too), then you're counting on the other shortie to get eliminated during the next orbit, which isn't a guarantee (he might get lucky as the BB, or the SB might fold to him [definite possibility]).

I think I call here.

Re: Bubble squeaker...
 

I call.

I have no idea why and I might be wrong, but you asked for a gut instinct reply.

Lori

Re: Bubble squeaker...
 

yeah...i pretty much froze up, took about 10 seconds to come to a decision. I figured that the folding line would be ITM more than half, less than 2/3rd (ballpark), but that i simply had too good a chance of dominating the raise (he having only one over), and that while ITM by folding is no better than 3rd, if i play this hand, i have at least some hope of getting 1st/2nd.

So eventally, i did call. Of course, he tabled TT, so i would have been better off if i was more of a pansy. But this result won't affect my future decisions in the same scenario. Half hour later, im now pretty happy i called, it seems clearer in hindsight. I think 44 or so would put this back at a "pick'em", but TT simply wins too often against his range.

Thx for inputs guys.
BL'

Re: Bubble squeaker...
 

Yikes, this seems like a toss-up. You're probably a coin-flip to win the hand, and winning would probably give you an 80+% of finishing in the money. Folding would probably leave you slightly under 50% to finish in the money. I guess I'd lean towards calling, but it's gotta be close.

Re: Bubble squeaker...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yikes, this seems like a toss-up. You're probably a coin-flip to win the hand, and winning would probably give you an 80+% of finishing in the money. Folding would probably leave you slightly under 50% to finish in the money. I guess I'd lean towards calling, but it's gotta be close.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only thing that would sway me to calling would be the small chance of finishing better than third place. If either option gives someone about equal chances of finishing ITM than go for the one that maximizes the chip stack.

Re: Bubble squeaker...
 

Good call