Re: Deal or No Deal
 

Well, we found out that with 1 million and a small amount left the offer is 500k. I was hoping they would make it lower. I don't see anyone passing that up.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

I think this guy is leaving with $5

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

This guy needed to take the loss of 3,000 in EV it sounds like, but I guess it worked out for him.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

Going for it here is terrible. Marginal utility of 500k 100% of the time > 1 million half of the time.

$3k dollars in terms of EV here is a very easy price to pay.

I wonder if the game show wants people to go for it instead of playing it safe.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

Wow...Poker player makes sense and then guy decides to do the opposite. GENIUS!

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

THIS GUY'S A DAMN FOOL.


... what a fish. A lucky fish.


Adam

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

Hahahahaha. This is going to be great!

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

LOL THIS IS SO RIDICULOUS

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

[ QUOTE ]
THIS GUY'S A DAMN FOOL.


... what a fish. A lucky fish.


Adam

[/ QUOTE ]



LOL, after this was posted, he says, "I'm no damn fool"

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

If he doesn't take this, I hope he gets $50.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

[ QUOTE ]
If he doesn't take this, I hope he gets $50.

[/ QUOTE ]


Your wish would have come true.


Still, this guy was a complete idiot. He should have quit at the $50K.


Adam

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
THIS GUY'S A DAMN FOOL.


... what a fish. A lucky fish.


Adam

[/ QUOTE ]



LOL, after this was posted, he says, "I'm no damn fool"

[/ QUOTE ]
haha I saw that

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

man I would have paid 10k just to see him go for it and end up with 50 bucks.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

[ QUOTE ]
man I would have paid 10k just to see him go for it and end up with 50 bucks.

[/ QUOTE ]


I call your bluff.



Adam

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

Best of luck arranging this situation to catch my bluff.

Hopefully,

Perrier

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

[ QUOTE ]

Play the online game at nbc.com a few times, and you'll see how crazy this approach is. Your EV at the very start is over $130,000 (I worked it out, but forget the exact number). With the low offers they give you, there's no way you should accept anything until there are, say, 8 suitcases left. It's extremely unlikely that you'll wind up with less than $10K if you stop gambling around that time, and even then you'll usually be in a position to keep going for a little bit while getting odds you can't pass up and a variance you can stomach.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I see your point. I exaggerated on my part for the 10k... but near the end when some of these people are trying to decide for the deals >100k, It comes into play. I was just trying to make the point that you can't fault someone for making the "incorrect" choice, if the money would mean that much to them.

anyways...I think they're going to spice this game up or it won't be around long. any ideas?

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

Every time you pick a number the chick takes her top off?

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

I think the game has two more shows and that's it. After that, I think it's about whether or not it gets picked up. I doubt that it does, but I wouldn't be surprised if they run it 2 - 4 weeks out of every year.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

[ QUOTE ]
Every time you pick a number the chick takes her top off?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's NBC. I don't see why this can't happen, since it already did.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

But it's fun to mock people who make -EV bets.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

i hate how he tries to be tricky leading into the commercials
i hate how long the commercials are
i hate how stupid the contestants are
i hate the host
i hate the whole concept of the game
if i was on the show i would just take the box and wouldnt take some -ev deal
i cant figure out why i still watch this stupid show

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

You wouldn't lose $1,000 to reduce variance?

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

the main factor for the algorithm is the variance between your decisions. the higher the variance the lower the ev. finish with $1m and $1 as your last boxes and they'll give you some real [censored] deals. awesome algorithm.

edit: for the online game.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

For the online game, they almost always give you 90+% of prize pool when it gets down to 3 and will be very quick to shaft you in a situation like the above.

Personally, if I was ever to play this game, I take a deal at 3 90% of the time, knowing that getting shafted the next round would suck.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

I'm fantastic at this game. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

http://img530.imageshack.us/img530/6536/deal6cw.jpg

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

i just had a ton of times in which i was not offered 90% (more like 70%) of the EV because my variance was huge.

as i said above, the variance seems to be the main factor.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

I'm talking when it comes down to 3. I've gotten a deal for 90% of the prize pool almost every time I've played it.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

[ QUOTE ]
This guy might just be the worst TV game show host in history.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's Howie Mandel, and you are right he is the worst actor and comedian and now game show host in history. Sort of a triple crown of worsts.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

I'm disappointed, their online version loads to 100% for me, then stalls. Anyone else have that happen?

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm disappointed, their online version loads to 100% for me, then stalls. Anyone else have that happen?

[/ QUOTE ]

It will work fine..........


....Right after this commercial break!

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm disappointed, their online version loads to 100% for me, then stalls. Anyone else have that happen?

[/ QUOTE ]
i had this problem, then disabled ad block and it worked fine

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

Show was interesting diversion. Watched at Tropicana AC with subtitles.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

About $350k.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

Saw some action last night...loved when the $125K or so offer came, and the mom said something like "that's four years of living wages, and you'd be throwing it away! Take the deal!" Dad says "yeah, but 8 is our lucky number!" Then mom said "Right! No deal!" Risk aversion be damned!

ScottieK

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

[ QUOTE ]
Show was interesting diversion. Watched at Tropicana AC with subtitles.

[/ QUOTE ]
They have subtitles for ebonics?

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

Youve got to be kidding me. I doubt most people here are rich. $200k is life changing for me. If 1¢ and $1M were left it would take me .04 seconds to take the $200k. Screw EV. Would you bet on a flip of a coin if you were offered 4:1 BUT you had to bet a minimum of $200k? I think not.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

Bump for tonight's show.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

Two different situations there. Losing 200k hurts a lot more than going for it in that situation because you should still have stuff to fall back on.

Oh, and fat black guy made stupid decisions last night, first passing up $50k as it's neutral EV, and then passing up a +$EV 67k, only to make a -EV deal the next round.

Horrible.

Re: Deal or No Deal
 

They are really going overboard with all of Howie's voiceovers. They throw one in like every 10 seconds.