Fold or Call?
 

Quick question for the poker experts.

Blinds are $3/$5, $200 buy-in table
9 person table, middle position
You have $2,000 in front of you
You have 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and call the $5 blind
person to your left raises to $20 and 3 others call, and you call another $15
flop comes J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG bets $10, next guy calls, next guy folds, you raise to $50, person to your left raises to $150, UTG goes all in for $462, the next guy folds. The person to your left (who raised to $150) only has $100 more.

Call or fold?

Re: Fold or Call?
 

...

Re: Fold or Call?
 

Fold...preflop.

Re: Fold or Call?
 

I called preflop because I was running hot all night, hence the $2,000 chip stack at a $200 table.

Re: Fold or Call?
 

Well then call your straight.

If you're really running hot, the only way to tell is to be against QT and hit a Q on the river for a split as the flush doesn't come in and the board never pairs.

Re: Fold or Call?
 

Fold. If all-in has 10 Q you've already lost unless a Q comes, and you split the pot. If all-in has a set instead, he still has 7 outs on the turn, and 10 outs on the river for a combined 17 outs to a boat or quads.

Re: Fold or Call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Fold. If all-in has 10 Q you've already lost unless a Q comes, and you split the pot. If all-in has a set instead, he still has 7 outs on the turn, and 10 outs on the river for a combined 17 outs to a boat or quads.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. Good stuff. Unfortunately I called. I wish I had your analysis next to me at the table. He did have Q 10. and no Q came on the turn or river. Thanks for the insight!

Re: Fold or Call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If all-in has a set instead, he still has 7 outs on the turn, and 10 outs on the river for a combined 17 outs to a boat or quads.

[/ QUOTE ]

genius

Re: Fold or Call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold. If all-in has 10 Q you've already lost unless a Q comes, and you split the pot. If all-in has a set instead, he still has 7 outs on the turn, and 10 outs on the river for a combined 17 outs to a boat or quads.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. Good stuff. Unfortunately I called. I wish I had your analysis next to me at the table. He did have Q 10. and no Q came on the turn or river. Thanks for the insight!

[/ QUOTE ]

You made the right play on the flop when you called; you were unlucky to be against QT. The guy you quoted doesn't know how to count outs (A set has 7 outs for the turn and then 10 outs on the river, that's very different from 17 outs). Avoid these situations by folding pre-flop.

mj

Re: Fold or Call?
 

I wasn't clear- 17 outs combined by the river for a set to boat or quad. When calling an all-in bet on the flop, I combine the turn and river outs to see if I have odds. 17 outs combined out of approx. 44 cards remaining (You're two cards don't pair the board so subtract this from 47 on the flop or 46 on the turn).