Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

I'm going to post an extensive Bellagio report on my blog (http://shaniaconline.blogspot.com/) hopefully today, but in the meantime I wanted to flash off a hand.

Some players I can't get the best of, or maybe I'm a donk. But I guess the question I'm posing here is who, if anyone, is willing to go broke with this hand in this manner?

I've played with Carlos Mortensen before and he totally owns me. I always think he's bluffing but he always seems to have it. This is level 1 of the 3K Bellagio tournament, maybe 20 minutes in. My table is tough and I start the day playing very relaxed. My VPIP for the first 2 rounds of action is exactly zero (0) and Carlos has been playing, or seemingly so, every other hand, usually for a raise. Sometimes he takes it down with agression post flop, sometimes he folds after being the agressor and getting played back at.

Blinds 25/50. I have 5900 carlos has 4900 and he raises to 125 in 3rd position and gets 3 callers. I have 2 cards (62o) in the BB and call. Flop is A72 all spades and I bet 250 for whatever reason. Carlos calls and everyone else folds.

Turn is another deuce and now I actually like my hand and fire out 550. Carlos eyes me suspiciously and makes the minimum raise to 1100. I consider keeping the pot as small as possible and then decide I oughtn't give him a free out. I make it 1800 to go, 1250 more to Carlos. Now Carlos pushes.

What do you all think so far? What do you think Carlos has? Is he pushing with a hand that I can beat? Do you call?

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

I think he probably has ace here. I can't fold this to a super aggressive player like Mortensen, who isn't afraid to stick it all in the middle on a large bluff. Pocket aces and pocket sevens are a definite possibility, but I'll go broke and make him show me that.

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

I don't think you can put the third raise in without playing for your stack so I'm calling. Pot is huge, and you dont have to be right all the time to make the call right (plus isnt Carlos known for playing super fast?). Also, I'm a fan of checking the turn here for a number of reasons. More likely to get paid off by 1 paired hands, and save my stack against house/flush. If I hadn't done that I'd call the minraise and keep it small. If a 4th spade comes, so be it.

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

62o, OOP, in a multiway pot, agaisnt tough, aggressive players? I hate the call w/ 100xbb stacks.

Given how it played out, I would have to call. It's hard to put you on a duece, and he might have A7 or A w/ the K or Q of spades.

I might consider calling the turn, and firing out a large river bet on a non spade river.

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

I'm thinking you're ahead. These hands that are beating you:

AA: I don't see someone raising 2 1/2 x BB with AA - which just enocurages callers with the pot odds.

77: Hmmmm. Nah. Hmmmmmm. Maybe.

A2: Nah. Hmmmmm. Nah.

Small spade connectors: Maybe. But why push with baby flush?

KQ spades: makes sense.

Why would he push the turn with any of those made hands? He wants to keep you in the hand with those. I think you're ahead.

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

I think I puke and kick it in, but I'm weak like that, but Carlos is much a much different style than I'm use to.

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm thinking you're ahead. These hands that are beating you:

AA: I don't see someone raising 2 1/2 x BB with AA - which just enocurages callers with the pot odds.

77: Hmmmm. Nah. Hmmmmmm. Maybe.

A2: Nah. Hmmmmm. Nah.

Small spade connectors: Maybe. But why push with baby flush?

KQ spades: makes sense.

Why would he push the turn with any of those made hands? He wants to keep you in the hand with those. I think you're ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aren't any 2 spades ahead?

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

Yeah. But why would Carlos push?

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

I think it's reasonable that he could have any-2 spades, an ace/spade combo, and sometimes pure air.

I think the biggest decision in the hand is what to do after he mini-raises.

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

If he has air how often do you think he will fire again on the river? Against that range, call and lead the river seems best. It will be hard for him to raise with a flush on the river, and hard for him to fold some A/spade combos that don't get there.