Fade the Colts the rest of the season?
 

So, how will the public perception of 13-0 affect the spreads for the Colts the rest of the year?

Sun. Dec. 18 1:00 p.m. ET Chargers
Sat. Dec. 24 4:15 p.m. ET at Seahawks
Sun. Jan. 1 1:00 p.m. ET Cardinals

If Dungy follows through and takes resting for the playoffs over perfection, will the early Colt lines be the best ones to fade?
The next two games are big ones for the opponents, though the Seahawks might not need the game if they clinch NFC home field (only the Bears and Bucs can match/beat their NFC record) and the Seahawks can fall back on the last game of the year against the Packers to clinch HFA. Of course, the Colts will be a home game for the Hawks.

Any strategy that we can plan for? We can discuss the Seahawks next week, if they win and the Bears and Bucs both lose.

Re: Fade the Colts the rest of the season?
 

I don't think this is a sound and sure strategy. The line out this week (Indy -7.5) reflects pretty well Indy's perceived lack of motivation for the upcoming game. If this game were more meaningful for Indy, I think we'd be seeing Indy -10 or 10.5.

Re: Fade the Colts the rest of the season?
 

Wagerline has the line at -9?

Re: Fade the Colts the rest of the season?
 

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Wagerline has the line at -9?

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I saw this too. Do we think public betting is going to drive the line even further? I like SD at +10. Maybe it'll get there.

Re: Fade the Colts the rest of the season?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Wagerline has the line at -9?

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That's a wrong line, it's 7.5 at most places. Besides the difference between 7.5 and 9 isn't that large anyway. I really think normally it would be 10.5/11.

Re: Fade the Colts the rest of the season?
 

There's no way they're going to give everybody a month off before the playoffs. No coach would do this even if they weren't chasing history.

Re: Fade the Colts the rest of the season?
 

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There's no way they're going to give everybody a month off before the playoffs. No coach would do this even if they weren't chasing history.

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True, but there may be more opportunities for garbage time points when Dungy pulls the starters in the middle of the 3rd quarter.

Re: Fade the Colts the rest of the season?
 

There is this big misconception of the term "giving starters rest".

I was listening to an ESPN program some time last week and they were speculating on this very topic. One point they brought up is the fact that you can indeed rest your "key" players such as Manning, Edge, and Harrison....but it's very difficult to rest starting linemen and defensive players. The rosters are simply not big enough. So, while you can rest these key players if needed, the main thrust of the team is still in place. I agree with what they had to say and do think the skilled position players might see some rest in the 3rd and 4th quarters much like you see in the last preseason game, but only if there is a comfortable lead.

Backdoor covers may happen but for the most part, the starting defensive players are still being mixed into the game. Benches are not deep enough. I'm not touching any of these games. There are better bets out there rather than taking something so unpredictable.

Re: Fade the Colts the rest of the season?
 

[ QUOTE ]
There is this big misconception of the term "giving starters rest".

I was listening to an ESPN program some time last week and they were speculating on this very topic. One point they brought up is the fact that you can indeed rest your "key" players such as Manning, Edge, and Harrison....but it's very difficult to rest starting linemen and defensive players. The rosters are simply not big enough. So, while you can rest these key players if needed, the main thrust of the team is still in place. I agree with what they had to say and do think the skilled position players might see some rest in the 3rd and 4th quarters much like you see in the last preseason game, but only if there is a comfortable lead.

Backdoor covers may happen but for the most part, the starting defensive players are still being mixed into the game. Benches are not deep enough. I'm not touching any of these games. There are better bets out there rather than taking something so unpredictable.

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great points, NoChance.

Re: Fade the Colts the rest of the season?
 

I would think Edge would get the most rest out of all the "key" players that the Colts have. He is on pace for over 400 carries this season which is a ton for a RB to have. Plus a RB would not have to worry about rust since there isn't as much timing involved like the QB/WR have to worry about losing with too much rest.