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-   -   ATs...J4o...What does it matter??? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=394975)

A_PLUS 12-09-2005 02:35 PM

ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 
I tended to disagree with the consensus from this post
BillyJex presents "Deep in a Party $109"

So I decided to run through some numbers.

Here is the quick situation. 12 players remaining (300/600 Blinds) Somewhat active CO raises to 2000.

We are in the SB with ATs. CO has 23K Behind, We have 13,512 after posting.

So, before thinking about how CEV relates to $EV in this situation, I wanted to see if it was in fact +CEV to push here.

OP mentioned that the CO had been opening 1.5-2x per orbit.

Let's do some math...

Last few orbits, we figure to have had between 8-6 players at our table, if CO has been opening 1.5-2x per orbit, we assume he is opening about 25% of his hands.

Of these hands, lets assume he will call with 88+, AJ+, which is 5.8% of hands. So, after he has raised, we will assume he will call 23% of the time (5.8/25).

CEV CALCULATION
77% of the time, CO will fold
Our stack size will be
13,512 + 900 (blinds) + 2,000 (his bet) = 16,412

23% of the time, CO will call
Our stack size will be
29,624 (total pot) * .3321 (our equity vs range) = 9,834

So, our expected stack size is = (.77) x 16,412 + (.23) x 9,834 = 14,900

That is an EV of +2.5BB. But it got me thinking. Our equity vs his range doesnt really come into play much here (it only matters 23% of the time). It turns out, given the assumptions I have made. It is impossible to have a hand that makes this play -CEV.

We would need under 20% equity to have a negative EV for this push. No hand has <20% equity vs this range.

So...what does this mean???

well, for one. In a play like a resteal (which this isnt really a resteal, just plays like one), your read is much more important than your cards MUCH more important.

This is a few examples of how EV changes with your cards

ATs AA A6 76s 82o 32o
equity 33.2% 84.6% 26.5% 31.4% 0.228 .244
% raising 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 0.25 0.25
EV 1374 4907 916 1250 659 769

Taking out hands that are actually big favorites vs the range that will call (AA-KK), there is only a 1BB difference between any hand you can hold, and they are all +EV.

On the other hand, if you do have ATs, the estimate for how many pots the CO will open in this spot is very important

equity 32% 32% 32% 32% 32% 32% 32%
% raising 50% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15%
EV 2096 1895 1751 1560 1292 890 220


If we are wrong, and the CO has only been opening 1x per 6 hands, this is a pretty much EV neurtral push, whereas, if he is opening 2x per 6 hands, we have +2BB EV.

It just shows, that we really need to concentrate on our table. Yes, having ATs in the SB buys you a little wiggle room as far as pushing back at a late position raiser. But we are much better off if we know that he will open X% of pots here, and fold to a push.


***BTW, I think CEV and $EV Diverge a great deal here, and even if we sure of his opening and calling range, I am not convinced this a good push from a $$ perspective.

Lloyd 12-09-2005 03:06 PM

Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 
I pretty much agree with all of your CEV calcs here. What that said, did you use Pokerstove to figure out what percentage of total hands that range was? If so, Pokerstove will not take into consideration what the hero had. So they'll count 4 Aces and 4 Tens even though the hero has AT. Of course that will just make it more +CEV since the hero is less likely to be dominated with AK-AJ and AA.

I'm not sure how much $EV and CEV diverge here. There normally isn't a huge bump from 11th to 10th. If there was, then divergence plays a pretty big roll. But my gut feeling is that they'll be about the same. Of course much of that depends on the stack sizes of the field.

A_PLUS 12-09-2005 03:21 PM

Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 
I calculated the % of hands in a spreadsheet, I only included 3 combos of AA, TT, and 12 of AK, etc.

Do you really think taking any CEV + line here is the right way to maximize your expected $$ won? Maybe it is just a personal strength type of thing. My max $EV line (for the MTT as a whole from this point) is definitely winning as high a % of pots as possible rather than the most chips in each hand. I am treating it very much like a SNG from here on out.

schwza 12-09-2005 04:12 PM

Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 

[ QUOTE ]
***BTW, I think CEV and $EV Diverge a great deal here, and even if we sure of his opening and calling range, I am not convinced this a good push from a $$ perspective.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
That is an EV of +2.5BB

[/ QUOTE ]

this is increasing our stack by ~11% in expecation. i would pass up a gamble that's known to be slightly +cEV, but this is way too much to pass on, imo.

also consider what happens if we have mis-guessed his calling range (assuming we still have ATs). say that our guess was

too tight so he's calling with some more hands. so instead of 88+ / AJ+ he's now calling with 55+ / A8+ / KJ+. i don't have pokerstove to do the fancy analysis, but you love getting getting called by A8/A9, you're a little unhappy about 55-77/AT, and you're about indifferent about KJ+. so you're a little happier if his range is a little looser than AJ+/88+.

too loose say he calls only with AQ+ / TT+. that's obviously huge for us - we really don't want to get called by 88/99/AJ.

so we're at +2.5 bb with AJ+/88+, and it's going to be a little better if he's looser and way better if he's tighter. so +2.5 bb is really a worst case, as long as we're right about his raise % (and his calling range isn't something bizarre like 22+, AT+).

12-09-2005 04:14 PM

Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 
Why in this situation or in a SNG (or at any time) is it more +$EV to win a higher % of pots than extracting the most chips in a given situation. My initial thought on this is to always play to win the most chips anytime I am involved, regardless of situation, although I have no statistical explanation for it.

By the way, I'd rather eat glass than have to play at the same table as this A_Plus guy.

A_PLUS 12-09-2005 04:23 PM

Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 
You are very right about the hand ranges. I think some players may be tighter than 88/AJ, but I think the size of our stack severely limits how loose of a call we are going to see. In the final 12 of a 100$ MTT, I just dont expect to see A9 calling a 22xBB push here.

My point is with this a stack this large, you really limit the hands that are willing to call. When you do that, the cards in your hand arent as important.

Since the cards arent that important, do we make this push with 76s? The CEV isnt far from ATs?

Would you push this at the 25/50 level of a SNG (stack of 1000)? If not, what is it about the current situation that makes you want to push now?

Lloyd 12-09-2005 04:36 PM

Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 
Whether we push with any two obviously gets back to hand ranges. While with AT, I agree that whether tighter or looser than the current assumptions the outcome is at least equal to if not more favorable then originally calculated. But pushing with 76s against a looser calling range has to be bad. But basically I agree with what you're saying. Based on your original assumptions it doesn't make a difference if you push with 76s or AT. How well you read players will determine whether or not that's a +EV play.

In practice, I'd have a hard time re-stealing with 76s. That might be a wrong move but damn I'd hate to bust out doing it and it seems like everytime I try something like this I get caught. It's not my strong suit. I'm better at picking the right time to be an initial aggressor versus fighting back against people. It's an area I need to personally improve in and your point is exactly why it's important.

A_PLUS 12-09-2005 04:46 PM

Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 
[ QUOTE ]
Why in this situation or in a SNG (or at any time) is it more +$EV to win a higher % of pots than extracting the most chips in a given situation. My initial thought on this is to always play to win the most chips anytime I am involved, regardless of situation, although I have no statistical explanation for it.

By the way, I'd rather eat glass than have to play at the same table as this A_Plus guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Early on in a MTT I never consider survival as having any value. The closer I get to a pay increase, the more valuable survival becomes.

For instance, in a SNG if someone shows me AK with 6 players remaining and pushes. I will fold 55 if we both have 22xBB. I just passed up chips. But for me. Having 22xBB with 6 players remaining is more valuable than having 45.5xBB with 5 players remaining 55% of the time, and being busted 45% of the time.

Think of it as two different tournaments. Would you rather play 100 6 person SNGs with 22xBB. Or play 55 SNGS with 44.5xBB.

Normally in a MTT (at the begining), I am indifferent between playing 100 MTTs with 100xBB, or playing 50 MTTs with 200xBB. Make it 55 MTTs with 200xBB and I take it every time.

Later on in a MTT (or in a SNG) is where I think survival has value. I want to be able to win pots uncontested (which is why having a big stack is so valuable).

From the original post.

If you gave me the choice.
100, 12 person SNGs where I start with 22xBB
or
77 SNGs with 27xBB + 8 SNGs with 45.5xBB.

I think I would earn more money with option #1. This may be dependent on individual skills. I have played 1000s of SNGs, so I am very comfortable playing short stack survival poker until we are down to 3-4 players.

I agree with Schwza that 2.5xBB is a lot of chips to be passing up, but I am not 100% sure taking it is best. I guess I am trying to consolidate why I would pass in a SNG, but take it here??

schwza 12-09-2005 04:47 PM

Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 
[ QUOTE ]
Would you push this at the 25/50 level of a SNG (stack of 1000)? If not, what is it about the current situation that makes you want to push now?

[/ QUOTE ]

i wouldn't push that in a sng b/c of prize structure differences. only 2.5x as much for winning vs squeaking into 3rd.

i would push in an identical MTT though, if i believed that villain was raising a lot of hands like in the OP though.

A_PLUS 12-09-2005 04:49 PM

Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 
[ QUOTE ]
Whether we push with any two obviously gets back to hand ranges. While with AT, I agree that whether tighter or looser than the current assumptions the outcome is at least equal to if not more favorable then originally calculated. But pushing with 76s against a looser calling range has to be bad. But basically I agree with what you're saying. Based on your original assumptions it doesn't make a difference if you push with 76s or AT. How well you read players will determine whether or not that's a +EV play.

In practice, I'd have a hard time re-stealing with 76s. That might be a wrong move but damn I'd hate to bust out doing it and it seems like everytime I try something like this I get caught. It's not my strong suit. I'm better at picking the right time to be an initial aggressor versus fighting back against people. It's an area I need to personally improve in and your point is exactly why it's important.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are very right about the hand ranges. If I adjust them at all, AT pulls ahead immediately.

Do you agree that with 22xBB, that we are MUCH more likely to see a tighter range than a looser one, and that A9 isnt a reasonable assumption. (possible, but very unlikely, especially with a TAG Hero)

schwza 12-09-2005 04:54 PM

Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 
i would call here with AQ/99. AJs would be close.

i think that the average party-er is a little looser (cause of the donk-factor, but there could also be a much less visible rock-factor), but i would be surprised to see a9. maybe more importantly, i would be very surprised to see a9 from someone who had not jumped out at me either through play or PT stats.

edit: i would fold AJs.

A_PLUS 12-09-2005 04:55 PM

Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Would you push this at the 25/50 level of a SNG (stack of 1000)? If not, what is it about the current situation that makes you want to push now?

[/ QUOTE ]

i wouldn't push that in a sng b/c of prize structure differences. only 2.5x as much for winning vs squeaking into 3rd.

i would push in an identical MTT though, if i believed that villain was raising a lot of hands like in the OP though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the payout structure argues more for passing on small edges than a SNG would. Once you get to the final table, the payout structure of this MTT is much flatter than 50%/30%/20%.


12 players left
12-11: 1%
10th: 2%
9:3%
8:4%
7:5%
6:6%
5:7.3%
4: 9%
3: 11%
2: 15.7%
1: 27%


I think that is where we are disagreeing. I dont know if we really stopped to think about how flat the payout is now vs a SNG. Also probably why Sirio found his ROI higher when he wasnt so gung-ho for 1st place finishes .

PrayingMantis 12-09-2005 04:59 PM

Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 
[ QUOTE ]
Last few orbits, we figure to have had between 8-6 players at our table, if CO has been opening 1.5-2x per orbit, we assume he is opening about 25% of his hands.

Of these hands, lets assume he will call with 88+, AJ+, which is 5.8% of hands. So, after he has raised, we will assume he will call 23% of the time (5.8/25).

[/ QUOTE ]

2 comments:

if CO is good and aggressive enough, he might be actually openning with any two from certain positions and spots, and be much tighter in others (that is, he might be openning overall 25% of pots, but have very different % from different positions,). That means that saying that he is raising now with 25% of hands, could be actually putting him on a rather tight range to begin with.

Also, if his raising frequency is more a function of conditions and positions, than of the cards he holds, then even if he does raise here 25% of hands, these could be almost random 25% (in other words - suppose he raises "every forth hand" from this spot, regardless of the cards). And then, of course, he'll have top 5.8% of hands 5.8% of the time, not more (if it's 100% randomized, of course).

schwza 12-09-2005 05:02 PM

Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 
once you're down to 4, the payouts are: 9, 11, 15.7, 27

everyone already has 9, so that's essentially: 0, 2, 6.7, 18

in %'s, that's 0%, 7.5%, 25%, 67.4%

that's not very flat.

A_PLUS 12-09-2005 05:05 PM

Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Last few orbits, we figure to have had between 8-6 players at our table, if CO has been opening 1.5-2x per orbit, we assume he is opening about 25% of his hands.

Of these hands, lets assume he will call with 88+, AJ+, which is 5.8% of hands. So, after he has raised, we will assume he will call 23% of the time (5.8/25).

[/ QUOTE ]

2 comments:

if CO is good and aggressive enough, he might be actually openning with any two from certain positions and spots, and be much tighter in others (that is, he might be openning overall 25% of pots, but have very different % from different positions,). That means that saying that he is raising now with 25% of hands, could be actually putting him on a rather tight range to begin with.

Also, if his raising frequency is more a function of conditions and positions, than of the cards he holds, then even if he does raise here 25% of hands, these could be almost random 25% (in other words - suppose he raises "every forth hand" from this spot, regardless of the cards). And then, of course, he'll have top 5.8% of hands 5.8% of the time, not more (if it's 100% randomized, of course).

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is it, you only respond to my posts when they involve an equation?

You are 100% correct. In reality I think that using the numbers I did to come up with an estimate of hands he will raise with is pure BS. I just needed to put some numbers on it. I doubt many players fully randomize like you suggested. But probably more to do with position and # of players at the table than anything else.

But regardless, the wider you set his initial range, the less you cards matter, so if you would do this with ATs, why would you fold 76s?

A_PLUS 12-09-2005 05:10 PM

Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 
[ QUOTE ]
once you're down to 4, the payouts are: 9, 11, 15.7, 27

everyone already has 9, so that's essentially: 0, 2, 6.7, 18

in %'s, that's 0%, 7.5%, 25%, 67.4%

that's not very flat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but you forgot about the 36% of the cash that you left from 10th-4th place.

PrayingMantis 12-09-2005 05:19 PM

Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 
[ QUOTE ]
Why is it, you only respond to my posts when they involve an equation?

[/ QUOTE ]

My replying frequency is totally randomized, so it's only a coincidence.



[ QUOTE ]
But regardless, the wider you set his initial range, the less you cards matter, so if you would do this with ATs, why would you fold 76s?

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course, in light of those comments restealing is even more +EV with any given range.

schwza 12-09-2005 05:25 PM

Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But regardless, the wider you set his initial range, the less you cards matter, so if you would do this with ATs, why would you fold 76s?

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course, in light of those comments restealing is even more +EV with any given range.

[/ QUOTE ]

not 22.

schwza 12-09-2005 05:42 PM

Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
once you're down to 4, the payouts are: 9, 11, 15.7, 27

everyone already has 9, so that's essentially: 0, 2, 6.7, 18

in %'s, that's 0%, 7.5%, 25%, 67.4%

that's not very flat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but you forgot about the 36% of the cash that you left from 10th-4th place.

[/ QUOTE ]

hmmm... this is interesting. here's a picture of stt v mtt payouts for final 10 (scaled to 100, giving 10th 0%)

http://i34.photobucket.com/albums/d1...wza/sttmtt.jpg

it makes me rethink my mentality of "screw it all, try to get first" in mtt's. when there are a decent number of people left, it's actually relatively flat. once it gets down a small number of people, it is very top heavy.

A_PLUS 12-09-2005 05:55 PM

Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 
I think the F- it, go for 1st is fine until you get down to 25 or less, then it gets interesting.

I have just been thinking that if we played a 2 table SNG with MTT like payouts, we would play them very differently than we play the end of MTTs now. Food for though at least

Lloyd 12-09-2005 06:42 PM

Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 
[ QUOTE ]
Do you agree that with 22xBB, that we are MUCH more likely to see a tighter range than a looser one, and that A9 isnt a reasonable assumption. (possible, but very unlikely, especially with a TAG Hero)

[/ QUOTE ]
There's no way I'd call with A9. AT would be close. AJ probably but not definitely. What others do, of course, is simply astounding at times.

locutus2002 12-09-2005 07:53 PM

Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 
This is a pretty bad situation for a resteal without an expectation that CO will fold.

I think Adanthar's comment about folding ATs if the 2K bet was not CO's standard raise is poignant.

If 2K is CO's standard raise then I think ATs in Billyjex situation is an easy push.
Hero is well ahead of CO's range.
Any raise will pot commit hero.
Hero has good equity against the range of hands that call.
(36% against AT++,77++)
Hero has FE from his image (clearly if villain is considering folding AJs, then his range for hero must be pretty narrow).

It's a little to early to consider $EV, although 27K (case where CO calls and hero wins) represents about 15% of the chips in play and has equity.

I doubt the push is EV-, but at the same time I doubt if its EV+ by more than 1/2XBB if you exclude the FE.



Your numbers are greatly influenced by the opening range for CO. 1.5-2.0 times per orbit is maniacal in a 6 handed game (only 4 1/2 positions to open from). There is also a big difference between 6 handed and 8 handed.

I estimate that a typical TAG opening range from the CO will call you 33% of the time (not 23%).

Opening range: All broadway, pairs down to 5s, aces down to a5. ~300 hands
Calling range: AT++, 77++. ~112 hands.

Take into account hero has AT and CO's # hands change for the same range.

Opening range: ~250
Calling range: ~90

Villain calls with ~36% of his hands.

A_PLUS 12-09-2005 10:22 PM

Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 
[ QUOTE ]
This is a pretty bad situation for a resteal without an expectation that CO will fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think this is really meant to be a resteal (kind of what I found so interesting in the analysis). I was suprised when I saw how little it mattered what hand SB held here. To start the hand, you think ATs...pretty good hand, he may be stealing, Im probably ahead...a push is good!

Yes, I think a push is +CEV. Probably in the range of 1.5-2.5xBB.

But here is the thing, wether or not this is play is expected to win you chips or not, really doesnt have much to do with the fact that we have ATs.

Our bet (22xBB) is a big preflop bet at this stage. It is pretty much as large as can be considered reasonable into a single 3.5xBB opening raise. So, since our bet is so large, we really limit the number of hands that are willing to call us. I think that we limit it to the point that ATs has negligble value. Without a hand like KQ or A9 in the calling range, we lose little value by changing our cards for 76s.

I disgaree with the push for different reasons, not the CEV of the play. I just found it interesting that our read on the villan was so important here.

If we had 10-12xBB, I think the quality of our hand is very important (we are going to be pricing in calls from KQ, A9, etc). But when we are this deep, we should be looking to make this move with 72 against the right opponent. All hands below AJ are close enough in equity that they arent going to swing this very far in either direction in terms of expectation.

[ QUOTE ]

Hero has FE from his image (clearly if villain is considering folding AJs, then his range for hero must be pretty narrow).

[/ QUOTE ]

We have alot of FE, true. But the hands that beat us (other than low PP) are coming along anyway, which again, drives home the point that ATs is pretty irrelevant.

[ QUOTE ]

It's a little to early to consider $EV, although 27K (case where CO calls and hero wins) represents about 15% of the chips in play and has equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really disagree here. If we treated all situations like this as CEV = $EV, I would think that it would flow into winning SNG theory, which from what I can gather it doesnt.

With a flatter payout structure, I dont see why treating this like a party SNG from here on out wouldnt maximize my $ won. There are some winning players that will really lag it up early in a SNG, but in a situation like this, where we should assume players arent experts at playing 10xBB stacks, I dont see why we would. (that is assuming hero has a good grasp of the theories talked about on our STT forum)

[ QUOTE ]
I doubt the push is EV-, but at the same time I doubt if its EV+ by more than 1/2XBB if you exclude the FE.

[/ QUOTE ] The only way this could be true is if he only opened with hands that would call a 22xBB reraise, which cant be true.


[ QUOTE ]

Your numbers are greatly influenced by the opening range for CO. 1.5-2.0 times per orbit is maniacal in a 6 handed game (only 4 1/2 positions to open from). There is also a big difference between 6 handed and 8 handed.


[/ QUOTE ]
True, I was just trying to mock up a range, I dont really think there is any truth to it. I think this range would need to be generated from the type of player we thought he was, and how often this type of player will open from the CO with these stacks.


[ QUOTE ]

I estimate that a typical TAG opening range from the CO will call you 33% of the time (not 23%).


[/ QUOTE ]

There is no real point in putting him on exact cards to open here. Many players are (and should be) playing the position and players in the blinds here. If he thinks that they are tight, and has a decent image, it very well may be any two. He cant be thinking that he is playing any hands for value other than the very best, b/c pots at this level dont go to the flop very often.

locutus2002 12-09-2005 11:06 PM

Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 
If villain calls 36% of the time 76s and other hands are much worse against villain's range. (77++,AT+)

you aren't folding out that many hands. When villain raises for value. (64% thereabouts)

We agree that most of hero's value comes from FE, but villain is simply not folding aj or at enough to make pushing junk any good here. IMO.

A_PLUS 12-09-2005 11:27 PM

Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 
It is just our ranges that will call that differ.

I dont think AT and 77 will call, you do (which is reasonable). AT is much better vs those hands.

Hopefully we have enough of a read on someone by this point that we know if they are the type willing to call off 1/2 their stack with AT, or mid pairs.

A_PLUS 12-09-2005 11:33 PM

Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 
Locutus, I reran the numbers with your calling range, we have 36% equity w/ ATs, 32% with 76s. Still not a huge deal, the big deal is you have us going to showdown 10% more often than I do.


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