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-   -   ATs...J4o...What does it matter??? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=394975)

schwza 12-09-2005 04:54 PM

Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 
i would call here with AQ/99. AJs would be close.

i think that the average party-er is a little looser (cause of the donk-factor, but there could also be a much less visible rock-factor), but i would be surprised to see a9. maybe more importantly, i would be very surprised to see a9 from someone who had not jumped out at me either through play or PT stats.

edit: i would fold AJs.

A_PLUS 12-09-2005 04:55 PM

Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Would you push this at the 25/50 level of a SNG (stack of 1000)? If not, what is it about the current situation that makes you want to push now?

[/ QUOTE ]

i wouldn't push that in a sng b/c of prize structure differences. only 2.5x as much for winning vs squeaking into 3rd.

i would push in an identical MTT though, if i believed that villain was raising a lot of hands like in the OP though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the payout structure argues more for passing on small edges than a SNG would. Once you get to the final table, the payout structure of this MTT is much flatter than 50%/30%/20%.


12 players left
12-11: 1%
10th: 2%
9:3%
8:4%
7:5%
6:6%
5:7.3%
4: 9%
3: 11%
2: 15.7%
1: 27%


I think that is where we are disagreeing. I dont know if we really stopped to think about how flat the payout is now vs a SNG. Also probably why Sirio found his ROI higher when he wasnt so gung-ho for 1st place finishes .

PrayingMantis 12-09-2005 04:59 PM

Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 
[ QUOTE ]
Last few orbits, we figure to have had between 8-6 players at our table, if CO has been opening 1.5-2x per orbit, we assume he is opening about 25% of his hands.

Of these hands, lets assume he will call with 88+, AJ+, which is 5.8% of hands. So, after he has raised, we will assume he will call 23% of the time (5.8/25).

[/ QUOTE ]

2 comments:

if CO is good and aggressive enough, he might be actually openning with any two from certain positions and spots, and be much tighter in others (that is, he might be openning overall 25% of pots, but have very different % from different positions,). That means that saying that he is raising now with 25% of hands, could be actually putting him on a rather tight range to begin with.

Also, if his raising frequency is more a function of conditions and positions, than of the cards he holds, then even if he does raise here 25% of hands, these could be almost random 25% (in other words - suppose he raises "every forth hand" from this spot, regardless of the cards). And then, of course, he'll have top 5.8% of hands 5.8% of the time, not more (if it's 100% randomized, of course).

schwza 12-09-2005 05:02 PM

Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 
once you're down to 4, the payouts are: 9, 11, 15.7, 27

everyone already has 9, so that's essentially: 0, 2, 6.7, 18

in %'s, that's 0%, 7.5%, 25%, 67.4%

that's not very flat.

A_PLUS 12-09-2005 05:05 PM

Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Last few orbits, we figure to have had between 8-6 players at our table, if CO has been opening 1.5-2x per orbit, we assume he is opening about 25% of his hands.

Of these hands, lets assume he will call with 88+, AJ+, which is 5.8% of hands. So, after he has raised, we will assume he will call 23% of the time (5.8/25).

[/ QUOTE ]

2 comments:

if CO is good and aggressive enough, he might be actually openning with any two from certain positions and spots, and be much tighter in others (that is, he might be openning overall 25% of pots, but have very different % from different positions,). That means that saying that he is raising now with 25% of hands, could be actually putting him on a rather tight range to begin with.

Also, if his raising frequency is more a function of conditions and positions, than of the cards he holds, then even if he does raise here 25% of hands, these could be almost random 25% (in other words - suppose he raises "every forth hand" from this spot, regardless of the cards). And then, of course, he'll have top 5.8% of hands 5.8% of the time, not more (if it's 100% randomized, of course).

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is it, you only respond to my posts when they involve an equation?

You are 100% correct. In reality I think that using the numbers I did to come up with an estimate of hands he will raise with is pure BS. I just needed to put some numbers on it. I doubt many players fully randomize like you suggested. But probably more to do with position and # of players at the table than anything else.

But regardless, the wider you set his initial range, the less you cards matter, so if you would do this with ATs, why would you fold 76s?

A_PLUS 12-09-2005 05:10 PM

Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 
[ QUOTE ]
once you're down to 4, the payouts are: 9, 11, 15.7, 27

everyone already has 9, so that's essentially: 0, 2, 6.7, 18

in %'s, that's 0%, 7.5%, 25%, 67.4%

that's not very flat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but you forgot about the 36% of the cash that you left from 10th-4th place.

PrayingMantis 12-09-2005 05:19 PM

Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 
[ QUOTE ]
Why is it, you only respond to my posts when they involve an equation?

[/ QUOTE ]

My replying frequency is totally randomized, so it's only a coincidence.



[ QUOTE ]
But regardless, the wider you set his initial range, the less you cards matter, so if you would do this with ATs, why would you fold 76s?

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course, in light of those comments restealing is even more +EV with any given range.

schwza 12-09-2005 05:25 PM

Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But regardless, the wider you set his initial range, the less you cards matter, so if you would do this with ATs, why would you fold 76s?

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course, in light of those comments restealing is even more +EV with any given range.

[/ QUOTE ]

not 22.

schwza 12-09-2005 05:42 PM

Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
once you're down to 4, the payouts are: 9, 11, 15.7, 27

everyone already has 9, so that's essentially: 0, 2, 6.7, 18

in %'s, that's 0%, 7.5%, 25%, 67.4%

that's not very flat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but you forgot about the 36% of the cash that you left from 10th-4th place.

[/ QUOTE ]

hmmm... this is interesting. here's a picture of stt v mtt payouts for final 10 (scaled to 100, giving 10th 0%)

http://i34.photobucket.com/albums/d1...wza/sttmtt.jpg

it makes me rethink my mentality of "screw it all, try to get first" in mtt's. when there are a decent number of people left, it's actually relatively flat. once it gets down a small number of people, it is very top heavy.

A_PLUS 12-09-2005 05:55 PM

Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???
 
I think the F- it, go for 1st is fine until you get down to 25 or less, then it gets interesting.

I have just been thinking that if we played a 2 table SNG with MTT like payouts, we would play them very differently than we play the end of MTTs now. Food for though at least


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