15/30 KJo
 

9 handed Party 15/30, I'm at home so no pokertracker or anything. this table had a couple multiway pots in a row so I figured by my neanderthal method of table selection without a HUD, this was a good one.

anyways, I get red K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and open raise on the button. BB just calls.

scenario 1:
flop A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], he checks I bet he calls

turn J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] he checks I check?

scenario 2:
flop A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], he checks I bet he calls

turn J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] he checks I bet?

Re: 15/30 KJo
 

No real draws on the board, so I'd probably check behind. If you think he is hijacking your [censored], call his river bet.

Nick

Re: 15/30 KJo
 

I like the check.

Re: 15/30 KJo
 

Can someone explain why checking is better than betting in either scenario? Are we assuming that BB will bet the river because you checked behind on the turn?

Re: 15/30 KJo
 

Hi chief,

so in scenario 2 you favor a bet?

Re: 15/30 KJo
 

Checking isn't favorable in either situation. We have no good reason to put him on an ace. Donks do donkey things. Maybe he called the flop with NE2, maybe he called it with 89. Fine it is possible that he has an ace, but it is going to take a lot more than a call on the flop to get me to stop betting 2nd button.... Or to stop betting with king high.

Re: 15/30 KJo
 

[ QUOTE ]
Checking isn't favorable in either situation. We have no good reason to put him on an ace. Donks do donkey things. Maybe he called the flop with NE2, maybe he called it with 89. Fine it is possible that he has an ace, but it is going to take a lot more than a call on the flop to get me to stop betting 2nd button.... Or to stop betting with king high.

[/ QUOTE ]

if he called the flop with nothing, it's actually more of an argument to check, right?

Re: 15/30 KJo
 

Not really, unless you know he will lead the river with air if you check behind on the turn...which is what I was asking previously.

Re: 15/30 KJo
 

or if he'll catch something that would make him call the river when he would have folded, or if he has something like 55 that he'll call on the river but not the turn for some reason. though, I'd expect him to call 55 the whole way some portion of the time

Re: 15/30 KJo
 

And what if he has 55 and a 5 hits the river? Or if he has KQ and a Q hits? Or 76/65 and hits the gutshot?

Re: 15/30 KJo
 

the pot's pretty small, so the question becomes whether or not giving a 2 outer a free card is compensated for by the other factors I mentioned

what if all those hands checkraise and I'm forced to fold?

Re: 15/30 KJo
 

Recognize that most "air" hands on this flop like jacks. They either have one or it creates some sort of straight draw.

This is an uncomfortable situation. I bet to apply pressure to all the eights, jacks, pocket pairs, and straight draws. If he had an ace maybe he would have done something by now?

Re: 15/30 KJo
 

Scenario 1:

I still think checking is the best solution. I dont think there is any VALUE to betting here. You bet, he folds, you win. Number of bets won/lost after the flop? 0

You bet he raises, and you fold. Number of bets won/lost? -1

You check, he bets a blank river, you call and your J is good (As you might suspect). Number of bets won/lost? +1

The other viable strategy here is to bet, and if you get raised by someone you think is BS'ing you, 3-bet them. Versus the right player, this will garner 2 bets with no showdown.

Nick

Re: 15/30 KJo
 

I would bet the turn unless you expect to get semibluff-raised or bluff raised pretty frequently. In the games I play, most guys will call down with any pair here. He also could have peeled the flop with 56 or 67 (or a flush draw in example 2).

If he calls the turn, I would also bet the river and fold to a raise. I think you miss too much value by checking the turn.

If it's a very aggro guy who is capable of raising as a bluff or semibluff, go ahead and check it. Or if it's a guy who will only call the flop with an ace.

Otherwise, bet it dawg.

Re: 15/30 KJo
 

[ QUOTE ]
I dont think there is any VALUE to betting here.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're telling me the 15/30 on party is a game where players will never call this turn bet with an 8, 4, straight draw, or other pocket pair?

Re: 15/30 KJo
 

Chief, I too am baffled by your statement.

Re: 15/30 KJo
 

I heavily favor a bet on both turns. We have to remember that we are in a blind steal situation and players are very likely to call down with any piece, not just an Ace. I bet the turn for value and against most players I am more than comfortable with fold to a c/r.

Also I think he c/r a FD and c/r the A more often than he check/calls and waits to pop the turn. This looks like he has a piece and is calling down or maybe has a pp and is hoping to "hit"

Re: 15/30 KJo
 

I've always said I'm just a donk livin the life. =)

Nick

Re: 15/30 KJo
 

scenario 2 was the real hand, scenario 1 was just something I was curious about. he had 22 and called the river

Re: 15/30 KJo
 

[ QUOTE ]
Chief, I too am baffled by your statement.

[/ QUOTE ]

I must say Chief I was suprised when I saw you favored checking, and in your scenarios you left out you bet/he calls. You still win one bet here after the flop, but you make people pay to see the river no matter how weak thier draws are. Also, there is a chance you can pick up the pot on the turn.

If raised you could easily fold.

I favor betting here

Re: 15/30 KJo
 

[ QUOTE ]
If raised you could easily fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

would you fold QQ/KK/TT/99 here as well? I assume you'd bet them on the turn if you're betting this?

if so, that seems like a huge incentive to checkraise any pair here, or any two cards for that matter, since my range here is so wide, and I'll be following up on the turn with a lot of unpaired hands as well as pairs that I'd fold.

Re: 15/30 KJo
 

I bet because jack beats 4